Hot Start to July

We will have a hot end to the Canada Day long weekend and a hot start to the month of July.

Pleasant Conditions are Expected on Canada Day Across the Eastern Prairies

Canada Day Monday


Mainly Sunny
28°C / 12°C

Temperatures on Monday will be in the upper twenties in Southern Manitoba. Skies will be mainly sunny and winds will be light, making it a perfect Canada Day!



Mix of Sun and Cloud. Chance of showers and risk of a thundershower
30°C / 16°C

Tuesday should see temperatures climb up around the 30C mark in most of Southern Manitoba. We may see some pop up showers or thundershowers as the atmosphere will be a bit less stable than it was on the weekend. Wind speeds will remain light, so conditions will generally be very nice.



Mainly Sunny. Slight chance of a shower or thundershower.
31°C / 17°C

Wednesday will again be a hot day in Southern Manitoba. Temperatures will once again be around the 30C mark. There may also be a few pop up showers or thundershowers again on Wednesday, but they are expected to be even more isolated than on Tuesday. The wind will be breezy from the south or south-west, providing a bit of relief from the hot weather.

Long Range

The long range forecast shows hot weather continuing in Southern Manitoba through the foreseeable future. Models suggest that we will stay above normal for much of the next 10-16 days. The accuracy of these forecasts past the 7 to 10 day range can be quite bad in many cases, but the overall trend appears to indicate a hot first half of July. Typically these hot patterns don’t like to break down very quickly at this time of year, so I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we saw generally hot weather last through much of July.

A Chance to Dry Out

Wet weather will finally give way this weekend to sunshine and warm temperatures as an upper ridge building into the western Prairies induces a dryer, more stable northwesterly flow aloft over Manitoba.


25°C / 14°C
A few morning showers giving way to afternoon clearning.

27°C / 14°C
Mainly sunny.

28°C / 15°C

We’ll see a few morning showers today as the dying remnants of an upper low cycle their way out of the province. Once the scattered showers end in the morning, skies will begin to gradually clear through the afternoon. We’ll see a high of 25 or 26°C with winds out of the north at 20–30km/h. We’ll see clear skies tonight as temperatures drop to around 14°C.

A high pressure system will begin to push eastwards across the Prairies this weekend which will bring some beautiful, dry weather to Southern Manitoba. Temperatures will climb into the high 20’s this weekend under sunny skies with no chance of rain in sight. Overnight lows will dip to around 15°C.

The next chance of precipitation looks to be in the first half of next week as a slow-moving low pressure system meanders across the Prairies. Until then, enjoy a sunny, warm and dry weekend!

Calming Down After A Wild Night

Things will gradually calm down after a wild night in Winnipeg which saw a highly developed squall line move through the city. Fuelled by the heat and humidity that built up over southern Manitoba through the day, it started as a few severe thunderstorms that fired along a trough line in SE Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba then quickly developed into an impressive line of storms that raced eastwards across the Red River Valley.


Photo of a shelf cloud on a supercell in Southern Manitoba on Tuesday afternoon. Credit: @Erin_Shutterbug

Initially the storms brought golf ball sized hail and torrential downpours to southwestern Manitoba. The village of Reston, MB received 104mm of rain in just 3 hours. This was in addition to the nearly 200mm of rain they received on Friday night and then the 25–50mm of rain the region on Sunday as rain moved through the region, bringing their week total to over 300mm. With devastating flooding in the region, officials do no recommend travel in the area. They are looking for volunteers to help with sandbag and pump efforts; volunteers can register with the R.M. of Pipestone Municipal Office at (204) 877–3327. Some highways in the area are closed due to overland flooding.


Photo of the squall line as it approached Winnipeg on Tuesday night. Credit: @lovestormsMB.

Here in Winnipeg, the storm rolled in around 10:50PM as near-constant lightning filled the skies. A very menacing looking squall line promptly pushed in producing winds as high as 90–100km/h that ripped through the city snapping some tree branches and producing some localized power outages mainly on the south side of the city. Rain hammered down with the central and southern parts of the city seeing 20mm of rain in under an hour. Northern parts of the city received a little less rain, only getting around 5–10mm with the initial line of storms. A large area of stratiform precipitation moved in and brought another 5–10mm of rain to the city through the night.

Things will slowly dry out and stabilize over the next few days as an upper ridge slowly builds over the Rocky Mountains.

Today & Tomorrow


27°C / 17°C
Warm and humid; afternoon clouds with scattered showers. Risk of a thundershower.

We’ll see some afternoon clouds today as the sun warms us up and destabilizes the lower atmosphere. Some scattered showers will develop with the risk of some thunderstorms as a shortwave pushes into Southern Manitoba coupled with a strong upper-level jet running along the International Border. There is little threat of severe storms today, but given the high dew points any thunderstorms that develop may produce quite intense downpours. They should move along at a decent speed today, though, so no one place should see too much rain. We’ll see a high around 27°C today.


27°C / 15°C
Afternoon clouds with a chance of showers.

We’ll drop down to around 17°C tonight with skies gradually clearing.

Tomorrow will bring another warm day with some afternoon clouds and a slight chance of afternoon showers. Winds will pick up out of the northwest to 30 or 40km/h which will help push some of the moisture out of the Red River Valley and drop the humidity down to something a little more comfortable.



23°C / 13°C
Increasing cloud. Chance of rain overnight.

Friday will bring increasing cloudiness as an upper trough begins slumping southwards from the central/northern Prairies. It looks like any rain will hold off until the overnight period, and if it does end up moving in, amounts won’t be anything too extreme. At this point, it seems like only around 5mm would be likely. There would be no threat of thunderstorms with this system.

The weekend is looking pleasant with plenty of sun and highs around 25°C.

A Brief Reprieve From Storms

It’s been a wet and wild week in Southern Manitoba as muttiple rounds of thunderstorms have pummeled the region with heavy rain. On Thursday, 75mm of rain fell in southwest Winnipeg, causing substantial amounts of flooding to neighborhoods, schools and retail locations. On Friday night a area of heavy rain and thunderstorms pushed into Western Manitoba bringing as much as 175–200mm of rain to some regions in the southwestern portion of the province. The town of Reston, MB has declared a state of emergency after about 7.5” of rain fell on Friday night (~ 190mm). Approximately 2/3rds of the town’s population has been affected by the flood waters that engulfed the town as it’s drainage system simply could not keep up with the intense downpour.


The village of Reston, MB has declared a state of emergency after heavy rain caused significant flooding. Photo credit: Jillian Coubrough/CBC

On Saturday evening, an intense line of thunderstorms developed along the western escarpment of the Red River Valley and remained stationary for almost 3 hours. The hardest-hit areas just west and northwest of Portage la Prairie where – as evidenced by RADAR-estimated rainfall accumulations and a report from the town of Westbourne, MB – as much as 225mm (9”) of rain fell. On Sunday, an area of rain and thunderstorms lifting northwards through western Manitboba brought another 50–75mm of rain. This additional rainfall in an already waterlogged region has brought more overland flooding and caused mutliple highways to be closed near Riding Mountain National Park.

But a reprieve is in store for Southern Manitoba as the upper low that has been drawing a moist, unstable air mass from the Gulf of Mexico and brought catastrophic flooding to Calgary and southwest Alberta finally moves out of the region. This will allow a slightly drier, more stable air mass to move into Southern Manitoba on Monday. Things are not meant to last, though, as the heat and moisture is set to return on Tuesday as another system pushes into the Prairies and brings the storm threat back.

The Next Few Days


26°C / 15°C
Mainly Sunny

29°C / 18°C
Hot and humid. Thunderstorms possible in the evening & overnight.

26°C / 15°C
Mostly cloudy; showers likely.

We’ll see a beautiful day today with mainly sunny skies. A westerly wind will bring in slightly dryer air which will help things feel a little more comfortable as we head to a high of around 26°C. Skies will be mainly clear tonight as we drop to around 15°C.

Heat and humidity will begin to build in on Tuesday as a southeasterly wind develops and begins drawing Gulf moisture northwards again. Dewpoints should climb back towards 19–20°C as our temperature soars into the high 20’s. While the high will top out around 28 or 29°C, when combined with the humidity it will feel much closer to 35°C out there. An approaching trough will push into SW Manitoba through the afternoon and move into the Red River Valley in the evening.


CAPE values are expected to climb towards 2500–3000J/kg in southwestern Manitoba on Tuesday.

Thunderstorms should fire along this feature in the afternoon and pretty much every single thunderstorm parameter looks fantastic. CAPEs are expected to exceed 2500J/kg, LI values are expected to be beween –5 and –10°C, surface dewpoints should pool to around 20°C along the trough and a decent shear profile will be in place. It looks likely that any storms that develop will likely have the potential to become severe with threats of large hail, torrential rain and tornadoes. The storms will likely grow into a line of storms as they slowly progress eastwards towards the Red River Valley, with a good chance of heavy showers or thunderstorms in the late evening or overnight here in Winnipeg.

On Wednesday we’ll be stuck underneath a low pressure complex. The overnight convection should clear out through the morning hours then we’ll move into a mix of sun and cloud with scattered showers through southern Manitoba. We’ll see a high climb into the mid–20’s and clearing skies overnight with a low near 15°C.

Rest of the Week

It looks like we’ll finally move into a dryer pattern for at least a few days as a weak upper ridge pushes into the Prairies. Temperatures will be mid–20’s with significantly dryer air in place making for some pleasant, warm and comfortable summer weather. A few thunderstorms may be possible throughout the latter half of the week, but with less moisture available they shouldn’t produce the excessive rainfall totals we’ve seen over the past several days.