Hot Friday Leads To Unsettled Weekend

After a hot Friday, a series of disturbances moving through the region will usher in unsettled conditions.

Before the weather turns, Winnipeg will see a Friday of full on summer heat. Southerly winds will strengthen to 30 gusting 50 km/h with temperatures climbing to a high near 30°C. Those southerly winds will also bring more humidity into the region; dew points will rise to around 17°C today producing humidex values in the mid 30s. Skies will stay sunny for much of the day, but by the afternoon an approaching trough of low pressure will begin to spread cloud into the region.

ECCC Thunderstorm Outlook valid July 17, 2020
Severe thunderstorms are likely over southwestern Manitoba this afternoon with a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms extending eastwards across the Red River Valley this evening. View the full ECCC Thunderstorm Outlook in our Bulletin Viewer.

Through the afternoon and evening hours, the city will see a chance of thunderstorms. The best support for severe activity is over southwestern Manitoba, there will still be a risk of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the Red River Valley. Thunderstorm activity will primarily develop along the trough, however a secondary area of thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front following in its wake. Much of the activity will push southwards into North Dakota through the evening hours.

GDPS 12 Hour Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 06Z Saturday July 18, 2020
The heaviest rainfall from thunderstorms today is expected closer to the international border.

Skies will stay mixed through the night with temperatures dipping to a low near 17°C. The wind will ease through the early evening.

Saturday will bring cloudier skies to the city, but temperatures should still climb into the mid-20s. Winds will pick up out of the west-northwest in the morning into the 20 to 30 km/h range. A shortwave moving through in the afternoon will likely bring some showers or even a few rumbles of thunder to the Red River Valley. This system is not expected to produce any severe weather. The westerly winds will ease the humidity in the region and allow temperatures to drop into the mid-teens on Saturday night. The city will again see mixed skies through the night.

On Sunday, the upper low responsible for the unsettled pattern will slump through the region, bringing another day of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will reach a high in the low 20s with northwest winds of 20 to 30 km/h. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop north of the region in the morning, then slump south through the afternoon. Skies should finally clear out on Sunday night.

Long Range Outlook

Near-seasonal temperatures will persist through the first half of the week with another chance for rain on Tuesday. In the second half of the week, a warming trend will develop alongside the potential for more thunderstorm activity.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Sunshine and Summer Heat

A few beautiful days are on the way for Winnipeg as seasonably warm temperatures return.

An upper low continues to spin over northern Manitoba and support a dry westerly flow over the southern Prairies. As a result, the next few days will look fairly similar as this system slowly spins its way northeastwards.

Today and tomorrow will both see highs near 26°C and lows near 15°C. Winds will be breezy today out of the west at 30 gusting 50 km/h and then ease a bit for Thursday at 20 gusting 40 km/h. Both days will see mainly sunny skies. There will be a slight chance of a late day shower today.

NAM 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday July 17, 2020
Hot summer temperatures return on Friday when highs climb back to around 30°C.

On Friday, winds will shift to the south ahead of an approaching low. With winds up to 40 km/h, temperatures will climb to a high near 30°C. Humid conditions will redevelop over the Red River Valley as dew points climb back to around 20°C. In the evening, a trough of low pressure will move through the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms with it. With over 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30+ knots of bulk shear, there is a chance that some of these thunderstorms will be severe. Skies will clear out overnight with winds easing and shifting to the west.

Long Range Outlook

Sunny conditions will stick around for the weekend with highs in the mid-20s. No precipitation is in the forecast for Winnipeg. On Monday, unsettled conditions may redevelop over the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Stormy Monday Followed By Breezy Summer Conditions

Disturbances moving through today will bring cloud and thunderstorms to start Winnipeg’s week but sunnier, warmer weather will quickly return.

A few disturbances moving through Winnipeg today will bring unsettled conditions to the city. Beginning first thing this morning, a few showers or thunderstorms will be possible as the remnants of overnight convection drift over the area. That will clear out, but then a trough moving through midday will bring a more organized thunderstorm threat. Those thunderstorms will push off to the east in the afternoon, but a cold front then follows into the region will bring yet another chance of showers or thunderstorms through the evening hours. The main threat for severe weather will occur with the trough moving through midday; a few more details are in ECCC’s thunderstorm outlook in our Bulletin Viewer.

HRRR Simulated RADAR Reflectivity valid 20Z Monday July 13, 2020
A line of showers and thunderstorms will move across southern Manitoba early Monday afternoon. Some of these thunderstorms may be severe.

Temperatures will climb to a high around 24°C. Morning southeast winds becoming generally southerly near 20 km/h then easing in the evening. Behind the cold front overnight, winds will pick up out of the west-southwest to around 30 km/h. Temperatures will dip to a low near 13°C.

More sun will return to Winnipeg on Tuesday and Wednesday as a drier westerly flow spreads across the region. A potent summer low over northern Manitoba will produce moderately windy conditions across the southern Prairies. Winnipeg should see west-southwest winds near 30 gusting 50 km/h both days. Windier conditions with winds of 40 gusting 60 km/h over southwestern Manitoba. On Wednesday, an upper trough will bring a chance of afternoon showers to much of the Red River Valley.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Tuesday July 14, 2020
A strong summer low over northern Manitoba will bring seasonably cool, windy conditions to the southern Prairies on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Daytime highs will hover around 25°C both days and overnight lows will climb back into the mid-teens.

Long Range Outlook

A building upper ridge over the western Prairies will bring hotter weather back to the region by the end of the weekend with highs rising to around 30°C and a return of muggier conditions. The region will see some instability and chance of thunderstorms on Friday into Saturday. More settled conditions return for the end of the weekend and next week with near-seasonal temperatures and comfortable humidity levels.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Beautiful Weekend Ahead

Beautiful summer conditions lie ahead for Winnipeg this weekend!

A building upper ridge will bring plenty of sunshine to the region over the coming days with seasonal temperatures. Right through the weekend, Winnipeg will see daytime highs near 26 or 27°C and lows in the mid-teens. Winds on Friday will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 km/h, then they’ll ease to light and variable for the weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday July 11, 2020
Seasonably warm temperatures will continue across southern Manitoba this weekend.

A disturbance embedded within the building ridge will move across the region on Saturday morning, bringing some cloud to the region. No rain is expected in Winnipeg with this system, instead any precipitation is forecast to stay west of the Red River Valley. This cloud will break up for the afternoon hours and then clear out by the evening.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will kick off with a low moving through the province that could bring more rain and/or thunderstorms to the region. After that, though, it looks like a return to pleasant summer conditions. Near-seasonal highs with comfortable humidity look to persist right through the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.