Cooler Temperatures On The Way, But Still Above Normal

Brad Leave a comment

A cold front sweeping through Southern Manitoba this morning will bring an end to the incredible heat that baked the province yesterday and shattered numerous record high temperatures. What moves in behind the front can hardly be called cold, however, as above-seasonal temperatures continue in the region for the coming several days.

May 5th: Records High Temperatures Shattered Across The Province

A very hot and dry air mass moved into Southern Manitoba yesterday and, somewhat predictably, resulted in numerous new record high temperatures as records were broken all over the place. This air mass had broken essentially every single high temperature record in Saskatchewan the prior day[1] and was the source of numerous record high temperatures in Alberta, exacerbating the fire situation that has resulted in one of the largest wildfire disasters[2] in Canadian history in Fort McMurray.

Time-series of Winnipeg's Temperature & Dewpoint on Thursday May 5, 2016
This graph of Winnipeg’s temperature clearly shows the very rapid warm-up on Thursday morning.

Temperatures rocketed up early Thursday morning with many places reaching 30°C by midday, and by mid-afternoon temperatures of 32-34°C were commonplace over the region. These very warm temperatures resulted in a large number of record high temperatures being broken:

Record High Temperatures Set on May 5, 2016
Location May 5th High Previous Record
Brandon 34.3°C 31.7°C (1934)
Dauphin 34.4°C 31.7°C (1918)
Fisher Branch 34.5°C 25.5°C (1987)
Gimli 33.8°C 26.3°C (1987)
Gretna 35.1°C 26.0°C (2000)
Melita 33.3°C 28.2°C (1993)
Pilot Mound 33.3°C 27.8°C (1939)
Pinawa 32.0°C 27.0°C (1987)
Portage La Prairie 34.2°C 31.7°C (1918)
Sprague 33.6°C 32.8°C (1939)
Swan River 34.5°C 30.0°C (1911)
Winnipeg 35.2°C 31.7°C (1926)

Winnipeg’s official high of 35.2°C marked the earliest date for a temperature 30°C or higher, beating out the more than 140 year old record of May 8th, 1874. Additionally, the difference between yesterday morning’s low of -2.4°C and today’s high marks the 3rd largest spread between a daytime high and the previous day’s overnight low since record began in 1872.[3]

Windy Friday Followed by a Pleasant Weekend

Today will see fairly windy conditions behind the cold front that will sweep through this morning. Gusty winds will strengthen out of the northwest to 40-50 km/h behind the front as temperatures head towards a high of 19°C. Skies will be mixed, but no precipitation is expected.

Winds will taper off this evening as temperatures head towards a low near 6°C under mainly clear skies.

RDPS 10m Wind & MSLP Forecast – Valid 15Z Friday May 6, 2016
Moderate northerly winds are expected to pick up Friday morning behind a cold front moving through the region.

The weekend will be fairly pleasant with mild temperatures as highs on both Saturday & Sunday climb into the low 20’s. Saturday will still be a bit wind with northerly winds to 30-40 km/h, however they should ease for Sunday. Skies will be fairly sunny throughout the weekend with no chances for precipitation!

Long Range: Some Rain? Maybe?

Temperatures will continue at near-to-above seasonal heading into next week, with some hints that the weather may become more unsettled.

The general trend in the models is to introduce a very large, slow-moving upper trough early next week over the west coast and to have it gradually move eastwards. Precipitation patterns at this point appear convectively driven over small regions, but also slow-moving which means that moisture may become feast or famine next week. The last thing moisture-strained regions of the Prairies need is prolonged periods of heavy rain, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on how the forecast of this system changes as it approaches!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 17°C while the seasonal overnight low is 3°C.

  1. The bulletin issued by Environment Canada:

    A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF VERY WARM AIR OVER THE PRAIRIES HELPED TO SET NEW RECORD HIGHS AT VIRTUALLY EVERY REPORTING SITE IN SASKATCHEWAN TODAY, MANY WITH LONG STANDING RECORDS. THE FOLLOWING ARE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET TODAY MAY 4TH AT ENVIRONMENT CANADA MONITORING STATIONS, 27 IN TOTAL.

    Saskatchewan Record High Temperatures Set on May 4, 2016
    Location May 4th High Previous Record
    Assiniboia 30.2°C 28.3°C (1918)
    Broadview 29.7°C 27.2°C (1918)
    Buffalo Narrows 30.0°C 26.0°C (1992)
    Collins Bay 22.5°C 21.5 (1987)
    Elbow 31.0°C 27.2°C (1918)
    Estevan 30.1°C 30.0°C (1939)
    Hudson Bay 31.1°C 25.6 (1987)
    Key Lake 28.1°C 22.0 (1987)
    Kindersley 29.0°C 28.9°C (1918)
    La Ronge 33.2°C 24.8°C (1987)
    Leader 31.2°C 29.4 (1936)
    Maple Creek 29.2°C 27.8·C (1936)
    Meadow Lake 32.3°C 26.1°C (1992)
    Melfort 32.4°C 27.2°C (1918)
    Moose Jaw 31.8°C 31.7 (1918)
    Nipawin 32.8°C 31.1°C (1949)
    North Battleford 31.1°C 27.2°C (1897)
    Prince Albert 32.4°C 27.8 (1918)
    Regina 31.4°C 29.4°C (1918)
    Rosetown 31.7°C 27.5°C (1992)
    Saskatoon 32.6°C 30.0°C (1918)
    Stony Rapids 27.7°C 22.0°C (1987)
    Swift Current 29.3°C 28.9°C (1918)
    Watrous 32.3°C 26.1°C (1977)
    Weyburn 29.9°C 27.3°C (1926)
    Wynyard 30.6°C 25.6°C (1987)
    Yorkton 30.5°C 30.0°C (1930)

     ↩

  2. At least with respect to the human impact.  ↩
  3. Thanks to AWM contributor Julien for digging those stats up.  ↩

The Heat Ramps Up

Brad 1 Comment

Temperatures are set to soar way above seasonal values in Southern Manitoba over the next couple days as a dry & unseasonably warm air mass over Alberta pushes into the province. Temperatures will soar on Thursday above 30°C, likely breaking several record high temperatures for that day across the province.

The heat is on as warmer weather begins pushing eastwards out of the western Prairies and spreading into Manitoba. Temperatures in Winnipeg today will climb to a mild 21°C with relatively light winds out of the south and a few clouds through the afternoon hours. Through the remainder of the Red River Valley, temperatures will be in the 18-22°C range with light winds as well. It will be milder over southwestern Manitoba with a slight southwesterly breeze and highs in the 23-26°C range.

Winds will begin picking up out of the southwest to 20-30km/h tonight as even warmer air begins moving into the region. This will keep overnight lows quite mild at just 13-14°C over the central & eastern Red River Valley. Over the western Red River Valley, overnight lows will be even milder at 15-16°C, bolstered by the down-sloping winds off the western escarpment.

RDPS Forecast 2m Temperature – Valid 21Z May 5, 2016
The RDPS is forecasting temperatures near or above 30°C over a wide swath of the Prairies on Thursday

Thursday will be a scorcher as the core of the warm air moves over the region. Temperatures will soar into the low 30’s with winds out of the west at 20-30km/h. The breezy winds, hot temperatures and low humidity will present an elevated fire risk, so it will be important to follow the latest fire guidelines issued by the province. Skies will be mainly sunny. Temperatures will remain mild on Thursday night with overnight lows dipping to just the mid-teens. With a high near 32°C, Winnipeg will challenge its record high temperature for May 5, which currently is 31.7°C set in 1926.

A cold front will sweep through the province on Friday, ushering in strong northwesterly winds and cooler temperatures. A few showers are possible, but with such limited moisture available and the poor timing of the frontal passage, I don’t expect Winnipeg to see any precipitation. Temperatures will reach a daytime high near 19-21°C before the cooler air begins moving in. Winds will strengthen to 40 gusting 60 km/h out of the northwest by midday. Winds will taper off on Friday night as temperatures head to a low near 8°C.

Long Range

Warm weather will return for the weekend with temperatures climbing back into the low- to mid-twenties under mostly sunny skies. A more southerly feed will mean that it won’t be quite as dry as this week’s warm weather, but the lack of rain continues.

Temperatures will continue mild into the beginning of next week. Some cooler weather is possible into mid-week as alongside the potential for some precipitation across the region, but at this point, it’s far to early to address that potential.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 17°C while the seasonal overnight low is 3°C.

Beautiful Start to May

Scott Leave a comment

May is getting off on the right foot, with sunny skies and mild temperatures expected this week. No major precipitation is expected either, helping to continue the drying process after our heavy April rains.

Today will be one of the warmest days of the year thus far, as temperatures climb above the 20C mark. High temperatures in the 21-23C range are generally expected. Skies will be mainly sunny, with only some light upper cloud cover rolling through. Light winds and dry soil should develop superadiabatic profiles near the surface, helping to ensure we warm as much as possible today. There isn’t much else to be said about today’s conditions, so enjoy it!

Very pleasant conditions are expected in southern Manitoba today
Very pleasant conditions are expected in southern Manitoba today

Tuesday will feature a slight cool-down as a cold front passes through early in the morning. You’ll notice that this front has passed because winds will be brisk throughout the day, with speeds of 40 km/h gusting to 60 km/h out of the north. Temperatures won’t drop too much though, with highs still expected to be in the mid teens under sunny skies.

Wednesday will see temperatures hovering in the mid teens once again, but the gusty winds from Tuesday will have died down. Skies are expected to remain sunny as we will be under the influence of a surface high pressure system.

Long Range

Long range models suggest that the first half of May will generally see above-seasonal temperatures. A large upper ridge is expected to remain over Western Canada, helping to keep our skies sunny and temperatures mild. There is no indication yet about how the second half of May will fare, but it appears the month as a whole will end up being warmer than normal.

Dull, Dry Weather Continues

Brad Leave a comment

The weather will be nothing if not reliable over the coming days as the uneventful weather continues bringing seasonal temperatures to Southern Manitoba.

The coming 3 days will bring sunny skies to Southern Manitoba with seasonal temperatures and relatively light winds. Today and Saturday will both see high temperatures near 15°C with overnight lows in the 1-2°C range. Slightly warmer weather will move in on Sunday with temperatures climbing into the upper teens with daytime highs near 18°C. Winds will be out of the north to north-east today and Saturday, at 20-30km/h. With the warmer weather on Sunday, winds should be calm out of the northwest-to-west.

Staying Dry

While the mild, dry weather is pleasant for many people, with spring moving into full swing, the desire for a little rain will be increasing, especially from the agricultural community. Unfortunately for us, the odds of any significant precipitation over the coming week is slim.

NAEFS Probability of > 5mm of Accumulated Rainfall between April 29 and May 6, 2016
NAEFS Probability of > 5mm of Accumulated Rainfall between April 29 and May 6, 2016

Looking ahead over the next week, the NAEFS is painting a dry picture. Above shows a probability of locations seeing a total of 5mm of rain or more through April 29 to May 5th. While it’s a foregone conclusion over the western and eastern Coasts, here in the middle it’s showing essentially a 0% chance of it. 2mm is also similarly bleak, with only a 30-50% chance.

This means that the odds of anything that might actually soak the ground at all is nil. Moving past next week into the 2-4 week period, it looks like we’ll head back towards a "seasonal" chance for precipitation, but no major soakers are on the horizon. Alongside the dry weather, however, will likely be some warmer weather as upper-level ridging gradually builds in over the region.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 15°C while the seasonal overnight low is 2°C.