GDPS Forecast 850mb Temperature Anomaly valid 12Z December 25, 2017

Polar Express On The Way

The Polar Express is on its way to Winnipeg, and we’re not talking about the book. After near- to slightly below-normal temperatures through the latter half of the work week, Arctic air will surge southwards this weekend, sending temperatures towards what may end up the coldest Christmas Day in two decades.

Today will bring mainly cloudy skies to Winnipeg as a low pressure system crosses through the Dakotas, spreading a broad area of cloud ahead of and north of its path. This low will also reinforce light northerly winds over the Red River Valley, tapping into the first of a series of Arctic highs that are slumping southwards out of the north. The cloudy skies and cool wind will result in temperatures a bit below seasonal with a high around -15°C in Winnipeg. No accumulating snow is expected today, either in Winnipeg or south of the city; it should remain south of the American border in the Dakotas.

Skies will clear out overnight as temperatures head to a low near -25°C.

Winnipeg will see light winds and sunny skies on Thursday with temperatures once again climbing to a high near -16°C. A low pressure system moving across the northern Prairies will begin spreading a milder air mass into the region in the evening; skies will cloud over as southerly winds pick up into the 20 to 30 km/h range. Temperatures will climb overnight to around -13°C early Friday morning.

Friday will mark the start of the major transition in temperatures over southern Manitoba. After reaching a high near -10 or -11°C, a cold front will sweep through region bringing a bit of light snow. Northwesterly winds will develop behind the front and temperatures will gradually begin to fall. The one saving grace will a rather extensive patchwork of cloud left in the wake of the cold front, which will prevent things from getting too cold. Temperatures will fall to a low near -20°C with a slight chance of flurries overnight.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will plummet across southern Manitoba this weekend as a large-scale pattern change happens, allowing bitterly cold Arctic air to spill southwards across the Prairies.

GDPS Forecast 850mb Temperature Anomaly valid 12Z December 25, 2017
Forecasts are showing a bitterly cold air mass in place over southern Manitoba on Christmas Day, represented here by 850mb temperatures over 20°C below seasonal values

This bitterly cold air mass will become entrenched over the region, bringing cold daytime highs at or below the seasonal overnight lows for several days on end. Looking towards Christmas Day, it looks like high temperatures will be around -24°C. This would be the coldest Christmas in 20 years, back to 1996 when the daily high was a frigid -27.8°C. No significant improvement in temperatures will occur through the remainder of next week.

Stay warm, Winnipeg!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -11°C while the seasonal overnight low is -21°C.

One Last Mild Day Before The Deep Freeze

Temperatures remain well above seasonal in Winnipeg for one more day before plummeting as a powerful cold front blasts southwards out of the Arctic.

Winnipeg will see mostly cloudy skies today as a weak impulse slides along the U.S. border. It will support an area of light snow that will spread around 2 cm of light snow across the southern Red River Valley. There’s a chance that Winnipeg will see a bit of light snow, but the snow will likely pass to the south. Temperatures will climb to a high near 0°C with winds out of the southwest at 15 to 25 km/h. The snow will move out of the region in the evening along with the cloud. Temperatures will dip to a low near -7°C with winds shifting to the west at 20 to 30 km/h.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Monday December 18, 2017
Cold air will surge southwards as the northern cold front slumps behind the passage of the southern frontal wave

Tuesday will bring the arrival of the Arctic front as it surges southwards behind a low pressure system exiting the Arctic Prairies. Winds will shift to the northwest in the morning at around 30 km/h as temperatures fall through the day, reaching around -12°C by the evening. The cold front will bring mixed skies to the region and Winnipeg may see a stray flurry or two, but no accumulating snow is expected. Skies will remain partly cloudy on Tuesday night with winds easing as an Arctic high builds in from the northwest. Temperatures will dip to a cold low of -21°C.

Temperatures will remain quite cool on Wednesday as a low pressure system passes to the south, spreading cloud into the region alongside northeasterly winds that will tap the Arctic high to the north. Skies will remain mostly cloudy much of the day as temperatures climb to a below-seasonal high near -14°C. Winds will be light at around 10 to 15 km/h. Winnipeg may see a bit of light snow in the evening, but once again most of the snow is expected to pass to the south. The southern Red River Valley may end up seeing a couple cm, while the northern Plains of the United States see significantly more snow. Temperatures will be very cool on Wednesday night, dipping down to around -24°C.

Long Range Outlook

A low pressure system will slump through the region in the latter half of the week, bringing with it some chances for light snow, however the bigger impact will be a reinforced surge of cold air as it passes by.

GDPS 850mb Temperature Forecast valid 06Z Monday December 25, 2017
Forecasts show a bitterly cold air mass descending over the Prairies for Christmas, bringing some of the coldest air on the continent into the region

This shot of cold air will bring some coldest air in the continent into the southern Prairies, amplifying in intensity all the way until Christmas Day. Daytime highs will likely fall into the -20’s with overnight lows dipping near to or below -30°C. Christmas Day in particular looks quite unpleasant with temperatures potentially starting off below -30°C and climbing to a high in the -21 to -23°C range. Throughout the core of the coldest temperatures, which looks to from December 23rd through December 26th, Winnipeg may see its first extreme cold warning(s) of the year, with the potential for wind chill values to drop into the -40 to -45 range.

Yikes! Enjoy the warmth today and get those long johns out and ready to go!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -11°C while the seasonal overnight low is -21°C.

More Snow on the Way

A pair of low pressure systems working their way into the Prairies will spread snow eastwards into the Red River Valley today.

Under cloudy skies, Winnipeg will see temperatures climb to a high near -11°C today as snow develops through the morning hours. Once developed, the snow will persist through Friday night before tapering off on Saturday morning. Although it will snow for quite a while, it won’t be a particularly large snowfall event, with just 2 to 5 cm of snow expected in the Red River Valley. Further west, in parts of southwestern Manitoba and into the Parkland areas of western Manitoba, amounts will be higher with 4 to 8 cm expected by the time it tapers off. Temperatures will remain steady near -11°C tonight in Winnipeg with winds out of the east-southeast at 15 to 20 km/h.

RDPS Total Snowfall (10:1 SLR) valid from 12Z Friday December 15 to 15Z Saturday December 16, 2017
Winnipeg is forecast to recieve around 4-5 cm of snow by Saturday morning

Snow will taper off on Saturday morning, then some sunny breaks will work into the Red River Valley through the afternoon. Temperatures will climb to a high near -7°C with light winds. Mixed to cloudy skies are expected on Saturday night as temperatures dip to a low near -10°C.

Milder air will continue moving into the region on Sunday as Winnipeg climbs to a partly cloudy high near -4°C and winds out of the southwest at 15 to 20 km/h. Clouds are forecast to build back into the region on Sunday night, bringing a chance of flurries to the region as temperatures drop to a low near -7°C.

Long Range Outlook

Another big pattern shift will occur in the coming week, this time bringing the deep freeze.

GPDS Forecast 850 mb Temperature valid 00Z Sunday December 24, 2017
The forecast 850 mb temperatures reveal a significantly colder airmass in place over the reigon by late next week

A significant low pressure system will work its way across the Prairies on Monday and once it passes, a potent Arctic ridge is forecast to build into the Prairies from the northwest. This will usher a much colder air mass into the region that will plunge daytime highs down into the low minus teens by the later half of the week.

So get out there and enjoy the mild winter weather; it doesn’t look like it will be sticking around for too much longer!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -10°C while the seasonal overnight low is -20°C.

Cloudy and Cooling with Occasional Light Snow

Winnipeg will see several batches of light snow over the coming few days as temperatures slowly slide towards seasonal values.

Today will bring falling temperatures to Winnipeg as a cold front slumps south and brings another shot of light snow through the region. Not much snow will fall, perhaps 1 to 2 cm, and it should taper off by the afternoon. Winnipeg will see breezy northwesterly winds around 30 gusting to 50 km/h, but over the western Red River Valley they’ll be a bit stronger and closer to 40 gusting 60 km/h. The winds will taper off through the afternoon across the region as temperatures fall to around -9°C. Skies will remain mostly cloudy tonight as temperatures remain steady near -10°C.

Thursday will bring more cloud to the region with a chance of some more light snow as another weak upper-level disturbance slides across the region. Temperatures will climb to a high near -7°C with light winds. Some clearing will work into the region on Thursday night as temperatures dip to a low near -16°C.

GDPS Forecast Precipitation Type and Rate valid 12Z Saturday December 16, 2017
Some accumulating light snow is expected to move through Winnipeg on Friday night into Saturday morning

Friday will bring mixed skies to Winnipeg, but the cloud will push back into the region in the afternoon as another Mackenzie clipper begins dropping southeastwards out of the Northwest Territories. Temperatures will reach a high near -11°C before the cloud thickens up in the afternoon.

Models are wavering a bit on the location, but snow will likely push into southwestern Manitoba in the afternoon and then eastwards into the Red River Valley on Friday evening. Temperatures will hover around the -10°C mark on Friday night. Total snowfall amounts are a bit in the air at this point, but around 2 to 5 cm looks probable for Winnipeg.

Long Range Outlook

The weekend looks mild as warmer air pushes eastwards into the province, bringing daytime highs back to around -4°C. Saturday will still bring plenty of cloud, but the sun may make a return on Sunday. At this point, it looks like Monday may be the warmest day with temperatures possibly climbing above freezing before cooler air begins working back into the region with seasonal temperatures returning mid-week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -10°C while the seasonal overnight low is -19°C.