Beautiful September Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

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With temperatures into the 20s in the coming days, Winnipeg will see some beautiful late-September conditions. But a change late in the week will usher in a period of unsettled conditions.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday September 26, 2023
Southern Manitoba will see mild temperatures this afternoon as a weak ride of high pressure keeps winds light.

There will be no complaints about the next couple days in Winnipeg as an upper ridge brings sunshine and warmer temperatures back to the region. Highs will climb into the mid-20s today in Winnipeg with light winds as a weak surface ridge lingers over the region. Skies will be sunny through the day and into the night. Temperatures will dip down to around 10 °C tonight.

On Wednesday, temperatures will climb back into the low 20s as a few clouds build into the region along with breezy southerly winds. By mid-afternoon, most of the Red River Valley should see southerlies up into the 30 to 40 km/h range. Those winds will continue overnight in the 20 to 30 km/h range, keeping lows mild in the mid-teens. Along with the wind, skies will likely cloud over as a trough of low pressure moves towards the region.

On Thursday, winds will strengthen to 40 gusting 60 km/h by midday in the Red River Valley. These winds will be strongest just ahead of the warm-sector trough crossing through the Red River Valley. As the day progresses, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to eject northeastwards out of the United States; this could bring showers or non-severe thunderstorms to parts of southwestern Manitoba or the Red River Valley on Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will again climb to around the 20 °C mark.

A weak cold front will push through the region on Thursday night, clearing skies out and allowing the lows to dip back into the single digits.

Long Range Outlook

A series of disturbances will push over southern Manitoba heading towards the weekend thanks to a deepening long-wave trough on the west coast that will continuously eject shortwaves northeastwards. This will likely mean seasonably mild temperatures, mixed to cloudy skies, and chances for areas of showers almost each day.

Current forecasts hold this pattern until early next week, after which cooler air will push back into the region with a return to near-seasonal temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 15 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +4 °C.

Wet, Unsettled Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

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A slow-moving complex of low pressure systems in the northern United States will spread cloud cover and waves of showers across southern Manitoba through the coming days.

ECMWF Total Accumulated Precipitation valid between 00Z Thursday September 22 and 00Z Monday September 25, 2023
Multiple waves of rain will move across southern Manitoba in the coming days, with the potential for some higher rainfall totals by Sunday evening.

Waves of rain will move through the Red River Valley over the coming days, but it will at least be relatively mild through the weekend. Despite the unsettled weather, daytime highs will climb to around 20 °C over the coming days. The cloud cover will also keep nights warmer with lows dipping down into the mid-teens. Throughout next few days, the wind will also be consistently out of the east, often in the 20 to 30 km/h range.

The rainfall forecast is a bit tricker than all the other elements, largely due to the complexity of the interacting systems south of the border and how thunderstorm activity will evolve as this disturbance matures.

Today, Winnipeg will likely see on and off showers continue through the morning, then things will have a chance to dry out a bit as the showers shift towards the west. Another wave of rain will push into southern Manitoba overnight and persist into Saturday morning. Things should mostly dry out on Saturday afternoon, but a few pop-up showers may be possible if the sun peeks out a bit and warms things up, or depending on the timing of this system, the cloud and rain could drag on later into the day.

The rain will calm down for Saturday evening, but then another broad area of rain will push northwards into Manitoba overnight, this time as the entire system in the United States begins shifting northwards. More rain will likely move through, and then lingering showers or drizzle could persist through the day on Sunday.

Long Range Outlook

The rain should taper off for Monday, but the region could see a lot of leftover cloud cover through the day. By Tuesday, the sun should begin poking out again and Winnipeg will see several pleasant days with highs in the low 20s and lows in the low teens.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 16 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 4 °C.

Seasonal Temperatures With A Chance of Unsettled Weather

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Seasonal temperatures will continue for much of the week across southern Manitoba, but a passing low pressure system on Saturday may replace sunshine with unsettled conditions.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday September 14, 2023
A low pressure system crossing Manitoba will bring warmer weather to the region on Thursday.

A collapsing upper ridge will gradually push into Manitoba as it weaken over the next couple days, bringing plenty of sunshine but not too much warmth. High temperatures in Winnipeg will sit close to 20 °C over the next couple days with a few clouds on Wednesday afternoon. The winds will be light on Tuesday, but could reach up to 30 km/h on Wednesday afternoon.

More cloud will move into the region on Wednesday night as a low pressure system crossing the northern Prairies pushes a warmer air mass into the region. Some showers might move through the region overnight Wednesday as this warmer air pushes in. This warmer air mass will help with overnight lows; Wednesday night will likely only drop into the low teens, compared to a low near 5 °C tonight.

On Thursday, highs temperatures will climb towards the mid-20s across southern Manitoba. Instability will grow through the day as a warm-sector trough pushes into the Red River Valley. As a result, there will actually be a small chance of some showers or thunderstorms later in the afternoon and early evening. With only around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20–25 knots of bulk shear, any severe weather is highly unlikely. 

A cold front will sweep through on Thursday night, bringing seasonal temperatures back to the region on Friday.

Long Range Outlook

The region will see near-seasonal temperatures along with a mix of sun and cloud into the weekend. There will be a slight chance of showers on Friday night as some wrap-around precipitation moves across the region as an upper low exits the region.

Some warmer weather will likely push in to start next week with daytime highs climbing back towards the mid-twenties.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 7 °C.

Pleasant Weekend Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

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A broad area of high pressure moving into Manitoba will bring seasonal temperatures and plenty of sunshine for the weekend.

ECMWF 10m Wind and MSLP Forecast valid 00Z Saturday September 10, 2023
A broad area of high pressure will move through Manitoba this weekend.

It will be quiet weather for Winnipeg and area over the next several days as a broad area of high pressure builds eastwards across the Prairies. This system will bring daytime highs in the low 20s to the region over the next few days with overnight lows in the 5–10 °C range. The days will bring light northerly winds with calm conditions at night. And most days will bring morning sun that gives way to a few afternoon clouds.

Some fog patches could be possible overnight on some of the upcoming nights as well.

There’s also no notable chance of precipitation right through the weekend.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into next week, the seasonal temperatures will continue right through the week . A low pressure system could move into the region mid-week, bringing southerly winds, warmer temperatures, and a chance of showers.

All in all, there’s lots of pleasant September weather ahead, so hopefully you can get out there and enjoy it!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.