Hot and Unsettled Weather Continues

Brad Leave a comment

Hot and muggy weather will stick around in Winnipeg for a few more days along with more chances for thunderstorms. Some relief is on the way for the end of the week, though, with more seasonal conditions arriving on Friday.

A hot and humid air mass will remain in place over southern Manitoba on Tuesday.

An upper high entrenched over the eastern Prairies means little change is on the way for Winnipeg over the next few days. That said, there is a change on the way. A developing low pressure system over the southern Arctic is beginning to push cooler air into the northern Prairies. As it matures in the coming days, that cooler air will continue to slump southwards through the Prairies. By Friday, this cold front will sweep through southern Manitoba, clearing out the humidity and lowering temperatures back towards more seasonal values.

Before we get to that, though, there will be a few more days of hot and unsettled conditions in the Winnipeg area. The daytime high will reach the low 30s again today, then ease into the upper 20s for the next couple days. That humid air mass will keep overnight lows mild with lows in the 18 to 20 °C range.

Each of the next few days will also continue to bring a risk of thunderstorms across the region. Here in the Red River Valley, scattered thunderstorms are possible today, but not likely until closer to the evening. Much of the activity will stay west of the region on Wednesday, but an isolated thunderstorm is possible. On Thursday, a chance of thunderstorms will develop across the region later in the day as a cold front pushes through.

With the heat and humidity in the region, there will be a risk of severe thunderstorms over the region. That being said, most will likely be non-severe. Any that manage to organize to severe limits will mainly pose a torrential rain and hail threat.

Long Range Outlook

A break from the heat and humidity will stick around for the weekend, a welcome relief for many. Daytime highs will vary from the low to mid-20s this weekend, feeling very comfortable thanks to lower humidity levels. That drier air mass will also allow overnight lows to cool off into the low to mid-teens.

Warmer weather is expected to return next week with daytime highs climbing back into the 30s.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 9 °C.

Warm With Increasing Humidity This Week in Winnipeg

Brad Leave a comment

After the scorching heat last week in the Winnipeg region, it might seem like this week will be cooler with highs of only the upper 20s. That slight cooling will be offset by more humidity in the region, with humidity levels possibly reaching downright muggy levels by Friday.

GDPS 2m Dew Point Temperature Forecast valid 00Z June 3, 2023
A extended southerly flow will bring a more humid air mass from the Gulf of Mexico northwards to southern Manitoba by the week’s end.

It will be another unsettled day in the Winnipeg area thanks to a shortwave lifting across the region from the Dakotas. As it moves into the warm and relatively humid air mass in our region, scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again develop. These will persist through the afternoon and into the evening before tapering off.  The city will see a high in the mid-20s give way to an overnight low in the mid-teens.

Heading into mid-week, an upper ridge will begin to build over Central Canada. It will bring warmer temperatures to the region while also supporting a deep southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico northwards through the American Plains. Daytime highs will rise into the upper 20s, but at the same time, an increasingly muggy air mass will build northwards. Dew point temperatures will increase from around the mid-teens to close to 20 °C by Friday. This will make for very muggy conditions to end the week that will make the highs in the upper 20s feel more like the mid-30s.

Along with the heat and humidity will come some unsettled conditions as well. Isolated to scattered [thunder]showers may be possible as the week progresses.

Long Range Outlook

Very warm conditions will return for the weekend with daytime highs likely climbing into the low 30s. If the humidity remains high, then it would almost certainly result in another heat warning for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley. Again, though, it won’t be completely stable and some showers or thunderstorms will be possible through the weekend.

More settled conditions will return next week as the humidity begins to leave the region. With a drier air mass, highs will hover in the upper 20s with overnight lows in the mid-teens through the first half of next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

Warmer Weather Returning for the Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

The western Canada upper ridge will rebound eastwards this week, bringing more sunshine and warming temperatures to southern Manitoba.

GDPS 500mb Height Anomaly Forecast valid 00Z Monday May 22, 2023
Upper ridging (red) will spread into southern Manitoba from western Canada this weekend.

First, I apologize for the lack of forecasts lately. Between a very busy period at work and having to try and kick a persistent cold, I’ve had little spare time and been pretty tired. More changes to the schedule in the week ahead may limit my ability to get forecasts written in the short-term, but I do have some helpful new features coming to the site very soon that I’ve been able to work on a bit.

Looking at the weather, it’s all uphill from here. Yesterday, an upper low moving through the province brought very cool temperatures and showers to the region. Today, with it now shifting off to the east, the upper ridge that slid westwards this week will spread back into the eastern Prairies.

As it heads east, it will send an area of high pressure through the province. That will bring clear skies to the region today with easing northwest winds. Temperatures should bounce back to a seasonal high near 20 °C. Those sunny skies should keep through the weekend as well with temperatures climbing into the mid-20s.

Overnight lows will rise as well, from the high single digits tonight into the mid-teens by weekend’s end.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will start with very warm temperatures; daytime highs in Winnipeg could break the 30 °C mark on Monday. On Tuesday, though, the weather may start to turn, bringing the risk of showers and thunderstorms to the region. The weather pattern looks to stay unsettled through much of the rest of the week, bringing mixed skies, seasonably mild temperatures, and the occasional chance of showers or thunderstorms.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 6 °C.

Cloudy but Warm Conditions Give Way to Sunshine and Heat Next Week

Brad Leave a comment

A slow-moving system to the southwest will keep skies cloudy in Winnipeg the next couple days. The sun returns on Sunday with temperatures warming up to start the week.

ECMWF 48hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 00Z Sunday May 14, 2023
A slow moving disturbance will bring cloud to the Red River Valley, but will dump copious amounts of rain to the west.

The main weather-maker over the next couple days will be a slow-moving complex of upper lows that extends from northeastern Montana to the central American Plains. This system will keep skies cloudy over the Red River Valley, but is bringing more inclement weather further west. Rain will persist across portions of SE Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba over the next few days, which has triggered an overland flood warning for parts of the impacted region.

For Winnipeg, though, dry northeasterly winds coming out of an area of high pressure to the north will help keep the rain west and south of the city. Winds will reach around 30 gusting 50 km/h both today and Saturday, then ease into the 10 to 20 km/h range at night.

Temperatures will continue mild, though, with highs in the 20 to 25 °C range over the next couple days and overnight lows in the low teens tonight and high single digits on Saturday night.

Everything begins to change on Sunday, though. The slow-moving system will be punted eastwards as a strong upper ridge builds across the Prairies. This will bring sunny skies back to the region and start sending highs up. Sunday will bring high temperatures back into the mid-20s and overnight lows into the low teens.

Long Range Outlook

The upper ridge over the Prairies will dominate the weather across southern Manitoba through the first half of next week. Daytime highs will climb into the upper 20s with plenty of sunshine.

This system will also likely result in the intensification of forest fires in the western Prairies and British Columbia. It’s too early to tell at this point, but there’s a chance that parts of southern Manitoba may end up seeing some hazy skies later in the week if smoke begins to drift into the region.

An upper low will begin digging into the ridge mid-week, and could bring some unsettled conditions to southern Manitoba in the second half of next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.