March to end with a Bang

Brad Leave a comment

This March not only came in like a lion, it will also go out like a lion. A major winter storm will slam the American Red River Valley and parts of south-eastern Manitoba today. Read on for the details.

A Colorado Low will bring heavy snow to parts of southern Manitoba and the northern United States on Monday
A Colorado Low will bring heavy snow to parts of southern Manitoba and the northern United States on Monday

Monday

Monday
-9°C / -15°C
Snow, heavy in some areas. Windy.

A Colorado Low will bring heavy snow and high winds to the Red River Valley and south-eastern Manitoba today. Wind speeds will range from 40-50km/h gusting to 50-70km/h. Some areas may even see winds as high as 60km/h gusting to 80km/h for a period of time. This will produce blizzard conditions in open areas of the Red River Valley and south-eastern Manitoba. The map below illustrates the expected snowfall totals.

Expected storm-total snowfall amounts.
Expected storm-total snowfall amounts.

Travel will become very difficult, if not impossible from points south of Winnipeg and into the American Red River Valley as the day progresses. Highway closures are likely through the day, with some roadways possibly staying closed until Tuesday. Roads that remain open will be in poor shape as well, so those traveling today may need to reconsider their plans.

This storm will wind down on Tuesday as the snow ends and the wind begins to decrease. However, those areas that saw the heaviest snow will have to deal with large snow drifts on Tuesday. Travel will be difficult if not impossible, particularly in the American Red River Valley, on most of Monday and likely into Tuesday as well. Luckily this storm should signal the beginning of the end of the seemingly endless winter we’ve endured.

Tuesday

Tuesday
-8°C / -22°C
Mainly Sunny

Tuesday will be a much calmer day in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will warm into the minus single digits, but a north-west wind will linger as Monday’s storm departs. At least it will be decent shoveling weather…

Wednesday

Wednesday
-4°C / -18°C
Mainly Sunny

Wednesday will see further improvement over Tuesday, as temperatures climb into the low to mid minus single digits. That should be good enough for some light melting of snow off dark surfaces – melting that can’t come soon enough for most people.

Long Range

The long range forecast is looking good for a change. Most models suggest we’ll see near normal weather in the short to medium term, which means high temperatures in the mid positive single digits. That should help to gradually start wearing down our snow pack.

Elsewhere in Weather News: March 29th, 2014

Matthieu Leave a comment

Atlantic Storm Slams Canadian Maritimes

This past week a strong Nor’easter affected the Canadian Maritimes which brought large amounts of snow as well as record-breaking wind gusts. The dynamic system that started off as a weak low off Florida’s east coast and quickly deepened, over 40mb in 24 hours, over the Gulf Stream. By the time the low had traveled up the East Coast and reached the Canadian Maritimes, it had peaked in strength at 955mb. Although this system, a cold low, was much different dynamically than a hurricane, it brought extreme wind gusts of category 3 strength; 186km/h gust in Wreckhouse, NL (breaking the old record of 180km/h). Widespread 100km/h gusts were reported across both Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Impressive picture of the Nor'easter just before the storm reached maximum intensity. (Source: NOAA)
Impressive picture of the Nor’easter before the storm reached maximum intensity. (Source: NOAA)

The forecast proved to be a tough one, especially along Nova Scotia’s coast, where warm air coming off the Atlantic Ocean had an impact on the snow amounts. Widespread amounts of 40cm were reported in both Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Halifax’s snowfall total, which was affected by the warm air coming off the Atlantic, only received 21cm. The highest total out of all the major Maritime cities was Charlottetown, PEI, which reported an incredible 53cm from the storm and experienced snowfall rates as high as 10cm per hour. Unsurprisingly, about 20,000 people were out of power at some point in the Maritimes and most flights in Halifax were cancelled on Wednesday. The Confederation Bridge connecting PEI to the mainland was also closed, due to the strong winds.

Only to add salt to the wound, the Maritimes are expecting another messy weather system to affect the region Sunday night into Monday. It will bring a mixed bag of precipitation to the region, depending on proximity to the Atlantic Coast; rain and freezing rain can be expected near the coast such as in Halifax. Further inland into New Brunswick, ice pellets/freezing rain transitioning to heavy snow will fall. The precipitation amounts will not be as high as the previous system, but nonetheless significant, as models are snowing that conservatively 15cm could fall in the snowfall region and 20mm of rain near the coast.

Clipper System Brings Brief Warm-Up

Brad Leave a comment
Temperatures are forecast to rise above 0°C by Saturday evening.
Temperatures are forecast to rise above 0°C by Saturday evening.

A low pressure system moving through the region on Saturday will bring a chance of snow and only slightly below normal temperatures to Winnipeg, however another Arctic ridge will plunge southwards behind the system returning us into the icy grip of winter as temperatures fall 10 to 15°C below normal. This is starting to look very similar to last year: the winter that wouldn’t quit, until suddenly it did. This December to March period will go down as one of the top 15 coldest on record, and not a single one of those top 15 coldest winters was followed by a notably above-normal April[1]. This means while milder weather is on tap, we’ll likely only be looking at returning to near-seasonal averages, especially while we still have such a significant snow pack on the ground.

Today will see temperatures climb to around -5°C by the late afternoon despite our fairly cold start this morning. Such large swings in temperature now are possible because our cold air is in a thin layer right near the surface[2] and the increasingly strong March sun is more able to effectively warm up all of the cold air. Winds will be light as we sit right underneath a ridge of high pressure.

Friday
-5°C / -13°C
Sunny.

Saturday
+1°C / -3°C
Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow.

Sunday
⇓ -6°C / -20°C
Chance of flurries in the morning, then clearing & windy.

Saturday will be the warmest day we see for a while but unfortunately the weather won’t be all that pleasant to be outside. The temperature will start off around -13°C or so first thing in the morning and begin to climb as the approaching low pressure system pushes warmer air over the province ahead if it. The low pressure system will be running into a fairly stubborn ridge, however, and by mid-morning winds will begin to pick up and climb to 30-40km/h by the early afternoon with gusts to nearly 60km/h. A warm front should lift northeastwards through the Red River Valley through the afternoon, and temperatures behind the front will climb just over the freezing mark to around +1°C.

There will likely be some light snow produced ahead of the warm front as it lifts northeastwards, however right now it looks fairly weak and disorganized with no significant amounts expected. Skies will remain mixed-to-mostly-cloudy Saturday night as the temperature drops to around -2°C. The stronger winds will taper off behind the warm front and light winds are expected throughout the night.

Sunday will start off cloudy with a slight chance of flurries as the cold front associated with the system pushes through the region. Behind the cold front skies will clear and gusty northerly winds to 30-40km/h will pick up. The breezy winds will usher colder air into the province and temperatures will fall to around -5 or -6°C by Sunday evening. Temperatures will drop to around -20°C, or perhaps a bit colder, under clear skies on Sunday night.

That hope on the horizon? Still there!

On Wednesday we mentioned that there was some hope on the horizon for warmer weather, and it’s still there! The latest NAEFS 8-14 day temperature anomaly forecast is showing a general push towards seasonal temperatures across much of the Prairies as April gets going. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the low single-digits by the middle of next week, and the general “near normal” trend of the NAEFS hints that we may actually be heading into a more prolonged period of seasonal weather with daytime highs above 0°C.

The NAEFS 8-14 day outlook is showing near-normal temperatures for Southern Manitoba.
The NAEFS 8-14 day outlook is showing near-normal temperatures for Southern Manitoba.

Anything to melt the snow will be a welcome site to winter-weary Winnipeggers. As pointed out over by JJ over at his Winnipeg Weather blog, this December to March period will be the coldest one in 115 years with the next coldest being the winter of 1898-99. With last night’s low dropping below -20°C, Rob pointed out over at Rob’s Obs that it will mark the 15th time this month temperatures have dropped below -20°C; typically that only happens 5 times in March.[3]

  1. The 1872 to 2013 mean temperature – an average of both the highs and the lows – is 3.5°C.  ↩
  2. Instead of a very deep layer, like we would see in January or February.  ↩
  3. Apparently I’ve dropped the ball by waiting until March was <em>over</em> before calculating my March statistics!  ↩

Hope on the Horizon

Brad Leave a comment

Bad news first: temperatures will remain below through to the end of the week. Good news: we’re on a gradual warming trend with some signals beginning to show that we may switch into a milder regime next week. Before that, though, we’ll see a slight chance for some flurries and some gradually warming weather.

RDPS output depicting expected precipitation amounts through the day today.
RDPS output depicting expected precipitation amounts through the day today.

Today will bring mainly cloudy skies with a high near -5°C. There will be a very slight chance for some flurry activity, although it will be far more likely closer to the U.S. border. A intensifying low pressure system in South Dakota will generate a band of snow through northern North Dakota running parallel to the border. While a few cm of snow are expected in North Dakota, just 1 or 2cm at most will likely fall on the Manitoba side of the border.

The very slight chance for flurries will continue through the overnight period as the temperature drops to around -15°C with skies clearing later in the night.

Wednesday
-5°C / -15°C
Cloudy. Slight chance of flurries.

Thursday
-8°C / -19°C
Mainly sunny.

Friday
-5°C / -14°C
Sunny.

After that, things look pretty calm as a ridge of high pressure dominates the weather story. Thursday and Friday will both be sunny days with relatively light winds. Temperatures will slowly inch higher, reaching around -8°C tomorrow and back to near -5°C on Friday.

Warmer Weather Next Week?

While it does look like we’ll see normal weather next week, we will likely still remain below normal, which will be around 3-4°C for daytime highs. At this point, it looks like we’ll climb towards 0°C for a high on Sunday, then plunge back into winter for Monday with highs back towards -10°C, then rebound back to nearly 0°C for the remainder of the week. It’s still a long ways out, so things could easily change between now and then, though.

With how things have been this year, I’ll take “below normal” as long as we can get this snow melting.