Mild Start to the Week, Stormy to the South

Brad Leave a comment

This week will start out with mild weather in southern Manitoba while a major storm system passes just to our south.

A major weather system will pass just to our south on Monday
A major weather system will pass just to our south on Monday

Monday

Monday
-1°C / -4°C
Increasing Cloudiness. Chance of Flurries.

Today will feature nice weather in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be near the zero degree mark with light winds. However, just to our south a major storm will be taking shape. This storm is expected to bring heavy snow to the Dakotas and Minnesota. There is still uncertainty about where the heaviest snow will fall, but if you have travel plans into the northern United States early this week you’ll definitely want to check the weather forecast along your route.

Tuesday

Tuesday
-1°C / -10C
Mainly Cloudy

Tuesday will be another mild day in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will once again be near the freezing mark with a light northerly flow. As you might expect, this north wind will be generated by that big storm to the south.

Wednesday

Wednesday
-1°C / -12°C
Mainly Sunny

Wednesday will be another mild day, with temperatures generally just below freezing. We should finally be clear of the storm system from earlier in the week, with clear skies being the order of the day. The wind will be from the north-west, but it won’t be particularly strong.

Long Range

The long range forecast calls for below normal temperatures in southern Manitoba for the end of March
The long range forecast calls for below normal temperatures in southern Manitoba for the end of March

Unfortunately, the long range forecast suggests a return to more wintry conditions for awhile. Most long-range guidance shows cool to cold conditions for the end of March. It remains unclear how the month of April will unfold.

Elsewhere in Weather News: March 15th, 2014

Matthieu Leave a comment

Cyclone Lusi Heads towards New Zealand; Otherwise a Calm Week

The weather this week has been fairly uneventful but the most significant event has been the three tropical storms that churned simultaneously off Australia’s north and east coast earlier this week. The strongest of the three storms, Cyclone Lusi, was of category three at its strongest point when it moved over the Island of Vanuatu. Vanuatu is an Island on the eastern side of the Coral Sea, near New Caledonia. Flooding was the biggest of the resident’s worries as the cyclone was fairly slow moving; affecting the island from Monday through Wednesday. Of course, strong winds were also problematic as many houses on the island are not built to withstand category three cyclone winds (120km/h). Long-term damage could also be concerning – crops destroyed and freshwater contaminated by flooding waters. Nearly 40,000 people living on the island were affected and about 100 people were evacuated from low-lying areas. Unfortunately, six people perished from trees falling on houses and fast currents associated with the floodwaters.

Cyclone Lusi as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite on March 12th, after the cyclone had passed over the northern islands of Vanuatu. (Source: NASA)
Cyclone Lusi as seen by NASA’s Aqua satellite on March 12th, after the cyclone had passed over the northern islands of Vanuatu. (Source: NASA)

The cyclone continued its trek southwards towards New Zealand where it is expected to make landfall this morning. As it moved south the cyclone encountered colder waters causing it to weaken significantly and start its transition to an extra-tropical storm. On Friday evening the cyclone still packed somewhat of a punch as it affected the northern island of New Zealand; about 7,200 people were reported to not have power and residents were urged to stay inside. New Zealand averages about one tropical storm per year.

Elsewhere in weather news, weather has remained relatively quiet across the globe, apart for severe thunderstorms affecting Argentina and Australia.

Cooler Weather Returns

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After a roller-coaster ride for our temperatures over the past week, cooler weather will settle in over the Red River Valley for the weekend. Temperatures will be around 10°C below normal over the next couple days before warmer & unsettled weather begins to push in by the end of the weekend.

Friday
⇒ -12°C / -23°C
Mixed skies. Winds tapering off this afternoon.

Saturday
-14°C / -23°C
Mainly sunny.

Sunday
-7°C / -12°C
Increasing cloudiness with a chance of snow late day.

Cool, Sunny Start

A ridge of high pressure will build into the Red River Valley through the day today, tapering off the northerly winds and bringing with it cooler air from Northern Manitoba. As temperatures remain steady near -12°C, strong northerly winds at 30-40km/h will diminish to 15-20km/h by the afternoon. Skies will remain mixed through most of the day thanks to some lingering instability behind the cold front that pushed through overnight.

Temperatures will drop to around -23°C tonight as the clouds mostly clear out. Winds will be light out of the north.

Tomorrow looks very similar to today; temperatures may climb a degree or two higher under a partly cloudy sky, but we’ll still be a good 10°C below normal for this time of year. Saturday night’s temperatures will be similar to tonight’s.

Warmer, Unsettled Weather Returning

An update on Sunday’s system is available in the comments below. Click here to jump to it.
Expected snowfall accumulations through Sunday night.
Update: Expected snowfall accumulations through Sunday night.

Sunday will bring warmer weather as milder air begins pushing eastwards thanks to another low pressure system set to track from northern Alberta through southwest Manitoba. Temperatures will climb to around -7°C with increasing cloudiness and moderate southerly winds to 30-40km/h. There will be a chance for some light snow here in Winnipeg through the evening and overnight period; amounts are still quite unclear, but it seems likely to be no more than a few centimetres. Cloudy skies will continue through Sunday night as temperatures drop to about -12°C.

Through the beginning of next week it looks like we’ll be returning towards seasonal temperatures[1] with mainly cloudy skies. It looks like there will be multiple chances for snow next week, but at the moment none of them look like significant snowfalls of any sort.

  1. Seasonal temperatures for mid-march are around -2°C.  ↩

Incoming Mild Air Brings Unsettled Weather

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A textbook frontal passage is in store for the Red River Valley over the next few days as an incoming warm front brings a chance of flurries and another mild day before the cold front slumps through the region at week’s end, bringing another windy chance for snow.

Wednesday
-10°C / ⇑ -3°C
Cloudy, light flurries starting midday.

Thursday
+4°C / -7°C
Warm with mixed skies. Windy with flurries overnight.

Friday
-6°C / -20°C
Chance of early morning flurries, otherwise mainly sunny.

We’re off to a cold start this morning, but temperatures will soar today as a strong warm front pushes across the Red River Valley. Southerly winds will pick up through the day to around 30-40km/h by mid-afternoon. There will be a chance of flurries beginning midday and lasting through the early evening. No significant accumulations are expected and thanks the warming temperatures and recent melting, blowing snow should be minimal. Temperatures will climb to around -10°C by evening but continue rising through the overnight period to nearly -2°C by Thursday morning.

Mild air is set to push into Southern Manitoba again on Thursday.
Mild air is set to push into Southern Manitoba again on Thursday.

Thursday will be another beautiful day very reminiscent of Monday this week. Winnipeg will see relatively light winds and mixed skies as the temperature climbs all the way to 4°C. Similar to Monday, there will probably be significant variation across the city with some places climbing several degrees higher to 7-8°C.

Things will take a less pleasant turn on Thursday night when a cold front slices through Southern Manitoba. Gusty winds out of the northwest to 40km/h will accompany some flurry activity that will spread into the Red River Valley from north to south through the mid-to-late evening hours. The wind and any straggling flurries should taper off early Friday morning.

Friday sees an Arctic ridge of high pressure building into Manitoba bringing cooler temperatures with it. In Winnipeg, temperatures will be some 10°C cooler than Thursday with a daytime high only near -7 or -6°C under mainly sunny skies.. Winds will remain light and the temperature will drop close to -20°C on Friday night.

Cool Weekend Ahead

Temperatures will remain well below normal through the weekend in the Red River Valley. Saturday’s high looks to be near -15°C under mainly sunny skies while Sunday sees the coldest axis of air shifting off to the east, allowing temperatures to climb to the low minus single digits with a few cloudy periods.

In the southwest corner of the province, flurries will be possible numerous times over the next 5 days as the main frontal zone sets up across the region and weak disturbances ripple along it.