Elsewhere in Weather News: February 8th, 2014

Massive Ice Storm Paralyzes Slovenia

A massive ice storm crippled a large part of the Central European country of Slovenia earlier this week. Freezing rain accumulations of 100mm wrecked havoc, encasing all unheated surfaces in a thick layer of ice. The ice brought down power lines, fell trees, and froze vehicles in place, leaving at least 50,000 houses without power at one point. Slovenian authorities estimate that the storm caused at least $89 million in damages and destroyed 40% of Slovenia’s alpine forests. The pictures coming out of Slovenia from this event are extraordinary:

  

  • A car encased in ice
    A car encased in ice.
  • A man chips the ice off his car in Postojna, Slovenia
    A man chips the ice off his car in Postojna, Slovenia.
  • Forests were severely damaged by the ice storm.
    Forests were severely damaged by the ice storm.
  • Road signs coated in a thick layer of ice.
    Road signs coated in a thick layer of ice.

Freezing rain is a common weather phenomena, but for it to occur on this scale is rare. In most situations, freezing rain occurs ahead of a warm front as warm, above-freezing air overrides a shallow layer of below-freezing air near the surface. As snowflakes fall through that warm above-freezing layer they melt into rain drops. This allows it to rain, since those rain drops don’t have a chance to refreeze before hitting the surface. However, once this rain strikes the surface, it freezes instantly, forming a layer of ice. Usually the warm front that causes the freezing rain will be moving, preventing the freezing rain from sitting over one area for a prolonged period of time. However, in some situations the warm front will stall out, or move parallel to an area, causing freezing rain to persist for an extending period of time. In the case of Slovenia’s ice storm, it appears a slow moving weather pattern allowed the freezing rain to sit over the same area for an extended period of time, generating the large ice accumulations seen above.

Sources:

http://www.businessinsider.com/photos-of-ice-storm-in-slovenia-2014-2

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/02/07/craziest-ice-storm-photos-youll-ever-seen-from-slovenia-photos/

Cold Weather Continues

It’s steady as she goes for the next few days with gradually colder weather on tap through the next few days.

Friday
-15°C / -26°C
Cloudy periods.

Saturday
-18°C / -31°C
Cloudy periods.

Sunday
-22°C / -30°C
Sunny. Cold.

We’ll see some clouds this morning but the sun will slowly gain more sky share as clouds break up through the day. We’ll head towards a high of around -15°C with notably lighter winds than yesterday. Tonight will bring partly cloudy skies and a low near -26°C.

We’ll again see some cloudy periods tomorrow, but it looks like overall we’ll see more sun than Friday. Highs will be near -18°C and the overnight low will plummet under clear skies and an incoming Arctic ridge to just under the -30°C mark. Sunday looks to bring sunny skies and cold temperatures with a high only around -22°C. We’ll drop back to -30°C on Sunday night.

No significant pattern changes are in store over the next week, so the cold and relatively quiet weather is going to continue to stick around for a while.

Mixed Bag Ahead

A bit of a grab bag of unexceptional weather is on it’s way for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley as the cold air’s grip loosens ever so slightly before returning to the region, bringing flurries with it.

Wednesday
-18°C / -25°C
Mixed skies; chance of flurries.

Thursday
-12°C / -20°C
Warmer; cloudy end to the day with some flurries.

Friday
-14°C / -23°C
Mixed skies; chance of flurries.

We’ll see mixed skies today as patchy low cloud continues to stream southwards out of the Arctic across the Prairies. Any of this cloud has the slight chance of producing some fairly insignificant flurries. Our temperature will remain cool today with a high of around -18°C and will drop to around -25°C tonight.

Tomorrow will bring warmer weather as a fairly strong low pressure system moving over Southampton Island manages to push some slightly milder air through the Northern Prairies and southeastwards into Southern Manitoba. We’ll see temperatures climb up to a near-normal high of -12°C or so with mixed skies before the clouds thicken up through the afternoon and some flurries slide into the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba. No significant accumulations are expected.

Friday will bring mixed skies once again with a chance of scattered light flurries. Temperatures will only cool off slightly thanks to the cloud cover and we’ll see a high of around -15 or -14°C. Temperatures will drop off to around -23°C or so overnight under mainly clear skies.

Continued Below-Normal Temperatures

The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook is beginning to show signs of near-normal temperatures returning.
The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook is beginning to show signs of near-normal temperatures returning.

Unfortunately, it’s still looking like below-normal temperatures[1] will persist through Southern Manitoba for at least the next week or two. A persistent northerly/northwesterly flow is showing no signs at all of breaking down and will continually reinforce the Arctic air in our region, maintaining the cool weather. While we may see short-lived near-normal breaks, the overall trend will be decidedly cool through the next two weeks. No significant snowfall events are expected through the next week.

Once we hit the 1.5 to 2 week mark, though, things are starting to look like they might begin to moderate a little bit and we might climb a lot closer to normal for mid-February. Any warm-up would likely mean a return to snowier weather as well, so we may see a stormier end to the month than we’ll see through the first half.


  1. The normal daytime high at this time of year in Winnipeg is -10°C. The normal overnight low is -21°C.  ↩

More of the Same

This week will feature more of the same cold weather we’ve seen lately. I’m sure you’re about as enthused to read that as I was to write it.

Early Week Outlook

Monday
-15°C / -30°C
Mix of Sun and Cloud
Tuesday
-18°C / -29°C
Mainly Sunny
Wednesday
-18°C / -26°C
Mainly Sunny

Today will feature slightly below normal temperatures[1]. Highs will be in the mid to upper minus teens in southern Manitoba with fairly light winds. As a result, the wind chill won’t be a big factor.

Tuesday will be a bit cooler than Monday, but not by a whole lot. Temperatures will sit around -20C with wind remaining relatively light once again.

Wednesday will be close to a carbon-copy of Tuesday. The wind will be a bit stronger on Wednesday though, so you may notice the wind chill factor a bit more – but values aren’t expected to reach “extreme” [2] criteria.

Long Range

The long range forecast calls for continued cold weather.

The long range forecast calls for continued cold weather.

The long range forecast continues to look bleak. Models suggest below-normal temperatures will last through most of the first half of February. There has been some rumblings that the second half of February may feature warmer weather, but that remains to be seen. For the time being, we will remain locked in a cold pattern.


  1. The normal high for this time of year is -10°C and the normal low is -21°C.
  2. Extreme being -40 or colder