The Deep Freeze Loosens Its Grip

Brad Leave a comment

After suffering through the 6th coldest December on record and a January that has seen all but one night drop below –30°C, a reprieve from winter’s icy grip is on the horizon as the upper air pattern finally shifts and allows some warmer air to spill eastwards into Manitoba.

Wednesday

-23°C / ↗ -16°C
Mainly sunny. Light snow with strong winds overnight.
Thursday

-8°C / -10°C
Light snow and strong winds tapering off in the morning then cloudy.
Friday

-3°C / -9°C
Mixed skies with chance of flurries in the evening.

Wednesday

Today will be the last sub-minus 20 day we’ll see this week! Our temperature will climb from our overnight low around –32°C up to around –23°C this afternoon under mainly sunny skies. We’ll see increasing cloud late in the afternoon or through the early evening as a warm front approaches from Saskatchewan. Temperatures will continue to rise overnight as the warmer air pushes into the province; we should rise to around –15°C by tomorrow morning.

In addition to the warmer air, we’ll also likely see some light snow move in with the cloud. The light snow will start overnight and taper off through Thursday morning. Amounts will be fairly minimal; here in Winnipeg we might see as much as a whopping 1–2cm while the southern Red River Valley will likely just see a few flurries with no significant accumulation.

Models are forecasting a very strong inversion over Winnipeg on Thursday morning; the large temperature contrast will produce very strong southerly winds.
Models are forecasting a very strong inversion over Winnipeg on Thursday morning; the large temperature contrast will produce very strong southerly winds.

The other significant weather tonight will be the increasing southerly winds. As the warm front approaches from the west, very warm air aloft will push into the Red River Valley. Temperatures at 850mb are expected to rise from around –15°C on Wednesday evening to close to 0°C by Thursday morning. With dense, cold Arctic air still in the Red River Valley, this strong temperature inversion will induce stronger winds than just the pressure gradient would imply. It’s difficult to pin down, but I think that we’ll see the winds pick up through Wednesday evening to 40–50km/h by Thursday morning with gusts as high as 60–70km/h. If things are able to completely decouple or the Arctic air is miraculously expedited out of the Valley very quickly, then we might see the winds remain calmer, somewhere between 20–30km/h; I don’t think this is particularly likely, though.

Thursday & Friday

We’ll see light snow slowly taper off on Thursday morning and then mainly cloudy skies thereafter. The winds will taper off through the morning to around 15–20km/h and remain there for the remainder of the day. Skies will remain mainly cloudy and we’ll see our temperature climb to a comparatively balmy (and warmer than normal) –8°C. Clouds will scatter out a bit on Thursday evening leaving us with partly cloudy skies and a low near –10°C.

More warm air pushes into the region on Friday as a low pressure system tracking through Central Manitoba drags another shot of warm air eastwards. Our temperature should climb to around –4 or –3°C under increasingly cloudy skies. Winds will be fairly light as well which will make it quite a pleasant day. Some light flurry activity is possible Friday evening and overnight into Saturday as we drop to a low near –10°C once again.

The Weekend

More warm weather is ahead for the weekend with daytime highs near –5°C on Saturday and possibly breaking 0°C on Sunday as a low pressure system winds up over the region, bringing potentially an inch or two of snow and a slight risk of some freezing rain. Mild temperatures continue into next week, so enjoy a nice break from the cold!

Light at the End of the Tunnel

Brad Leave a comment

We’ll have to deal with a few more days of frigid weather before a warming trend begins to take hold.

Extremely cold air will remain entrenched over Southern Manitoba today.

Extremely cold air will remain entrenched over Southern Manitoba today.

Monday

Monday

Mainly Sunny
-28°C / -32°C

Today will start out with extreme cold yet again. Low temperatures this morning will be in the minus thirties, though values will be closer to -30C than -40C. Afternoon temperatures will warm little, with temperatures “rising” into the upper minus twenties. Unfortunately, the wind will be quite a nuisance today, generating wind chills in the -40s once you factor in north-westerly winds of 20-30km/h. The mercury will plummet once again tonight, with lows in the minus thirties expected.

Tuesday

Tuesday

Mainly Sunny
-22°C / -30°C

Tuesday will be a slightly nicer day than Monday. The main improvement will be lighter winds, which will make it feel more like the actual air temperature. But those air temperatures will remain very cold, with highs once again being well into the minus twenties.

Wednesday

Wednesday

Mainly Sunny
-21°C / -25°C

Wednesday will remain very cold, with morning temperatures near the minus thirty mark, and daytime highs being near the -20C mark. The wind doesn’t look to be particularly strong, so like Tuesday it will feel close to what the air temperature indicates.

Warming in the Long Range?

The GFS model suggests we will see above normal temperatures by the end of the week.

The GFS model suggests we will see above normal temperatures by the end of the week.

The long range is where the light begins to appear in the tunnel. Models suggest that we’ll do better than -20C on Thursday as a warmer air mass begins to move into Southern Manitoba. However, this advancing air mass will be accompanied by strong southerly winds, which will cause Thursday to remain a fairly chilly day. However, by Friday into the weekend it appears that we’ll begin to see high temperatures consistently be in the low minus teens or minus single digits. Models don’t show any major cold snaps returning in the foreseeable future, but there will still be colder days here and there. The bottom line is that a prolonged period of warmer weather is finally on the way – time to pop the champagne!

Elsewhere in Weather News: January 4th, 2014

Matthieu Leave a comment

Snowstorm Sweeps across Northeast US, Cold Temperatures Follow

A powerful low off the Atlantic coast impacted the Northeast US this past Thursday/Friday bringing heavy snow to the region and blizzard-like conditions. Blizzard warnings were issued for Cape Cod and surrounding regions as winds howled around 70km/h and heavy snow fell. Conditions did improve snow-wise late Friday, but very cold Arctic air ushered in behind the low was of concern. In total, about 4,500 flights were cancelled out of New York alone, causing problems for holiday travelers. Schools and most government offices were closed in Washington DC on Friday due to the adverse weather conditions. Boxford, Mass appeared to be hardest hit with snowfall totals around 60cm, however, Boston was not far behind with 45cm followed by New York’s 25cm. On Friday night 16 deaths had been reported to be associated with the storm.

Temperatures are expected to rebound and warm up for the Northeast as another low pressure system approaches, from the west. It will draw in some warm air; highs Sunday (overnight) are even expected to rise in the (positive) double digits making for a 30°C temperature swing in less than 48 hours for parts of the Northeast.


Arctic air infiltrates across the Northern Plains, US Midwest behind the low centered in southern Quebec. Valid Monday morning. (Source: Twisterdata)
Arctic air infiltrates across the Northern Plains, US Midwest behind the low centered in southern Quebec. Valid Monday morning. (Source: Twisterdata)

Some potentially record-breaking low temperatures are expected on the horizon for the Midwest behind this system though, as the polar vortex pivots all the way down to the Midwest. On Friday the Governor of Minnesota had already cancelled schools state-wide on Monday in preparation for this next potent blast of Arctic air that will make its way east.

Snow Ushers In Brutal Cold Snap

Brad Leave a comment

Snow will the the story today as another system moves across Manitoba bringing close to 10cm to Winnipeg and lesser amounts southwards towards the International Border. The warm temperatures that we’ll see today will quickly be replaced by one of the most unpleasant cold snaps of the year; while temperatures won’t be the coldest we’ve seen, they’ll be coupled with a strong wind that will produce some of the coldest feeling weather of the winter.

Friday

-11°C / -23°C
5-10cm of snow. Windy with blowing snow in the morning and evening.
Saturday

-22°C / -33°C
Sunny, windy and very cold.
Sunday

-27°C / -30°C
Mainly sunny. Extremely cold.

Friday: Snow & Blowing Snow


Snowfall accumulations aross Southern Manitoba; totals for the period of Thursday night through Friday evening.
Snowfall accumulations aross Southern Manitoba; totals for the period of Thursday night through Friday evening.

Snow will be the story today as a pair of low pressure systems move in tandem through Manitoba; one in the Northern half of the province and the other travelling near the United States border. They will work together to produce an extremely wide swath of snow that covers nearly the entire province. The heaviest snow will track through the “usual” suspects: Parkland Manitoba (particularly near Dauphin) SE through the Southern Interlake and then off towards Pinawa and into NW Ontario.

Along the axis of heaviest snow, around 10–15cm will fall, with the higher amounts closer to the Ontario border thanks to the merging of the two low pressure systems. Winnipeg will sit right on the southern edge of the axis of heaviest snow, so we’ll likely see total amounts by this evening very close to 10cm. Amounts will taper off relatively quickly as one goes south; areas near the U.S. border will see only around 2–5cm of snow.

In tandem with the snow will be mild temperatures and strong winds. Here in Winnipeg the temperature will climb to a comparatively balmy –11 or –10°C while temperatures in the Southern Red River Valley may see as high as –5 or –4°C. These warm temperatures will be ushered in by the strong winds we’re seeing this morning out of the south at around 40km/h with gusts to 60km/h. This wind will produce blowing snow in open areas of the Red River Valley this morning which will produce near-zero visibilities. As is usual, highways running west-east will be hardest hit. The wind will taper off midday and we’ll see a fairly pleasant afternoon with some light snow, mild temperatures and light winds.

Things will deteriorate quickly in the evening as the cold front slumps southwards. Extremely cold air will begin pushing into the Red River Valley as winds pick up out of the northwest to 30–40km/h with gusts as high as 60km/h. This, combined with the freshly fallen snow, will produce widespread blowing snow through much of the Red River Valley through the evening and overnight hours. Visibilites will be near-zero in some areas and, in general, highway travel will be difficult. If you need to travel tomorrow night, carry a winter survival kit and give yourself lots of time to reach your destination.

Brutal Cold Returns for the Weekend

The GDPS 850mb temperatures show an extremely cold Arctic air mass moving over Southern Manitoba this weekend.
The GDPS 850mb temperatures show an extremely cold Arctic air mass moving over Southern Manitoba this weekend.

After the snow and wind moves out tonight, we’ll be left with absolutely brutal cold moving into the region. Although the temperatures won’t be quite as cold as the last shot we got, they’ll be paired with winds in the range of 15–30km/h which will make it feel significantly colder. The temperature will slowly fall all day Saturday from whatever it is in the morning (close to –22°C or so) until we hit our overnight low on Saturday night of around –33°C. Combined with the wind, it will feel closer to around –45 by early sunday morning.

Sunday will see temperatures recover to around –26°C thanks to a little bit of cloud pushing back into the region from the north. Winds will be 15–20km/h mainly out of the west. We’ll drop to around -32°C on Sunday night under mainly clear skies.

The brutal winter of 2013/14 continues.