Incoming Mild Air Brings Unsettled Weather

Brad Leave a comment

A textbook frontal passage is in store for the Red River Valley over the next few days as an incoming warm front brings a chance of flurries and another mild day before the cold front slumps through the region at week’s end, bringing another windy chance for snow.

Wednesday
-10°C / ⇑ -3°C
Cloudy, light flurries starting midday.

Thursday
+4°C / -7°C
Warm with mixed skies. Windy with flurries overnight.

Friday
-6°C / -20°C
Chance of early morning flurries, otherwise mainly sunny.

We’re off to a cold start this morning, but temperatures will soar today as a strong warm front pushes across the Red River Valley. Southerly winds will pick up through the day to around 30-40km/h by mid-afternoon. There will be a chance of flurries beginning midday and lasting through the early evening. No significant accumulations are expected and thanks the warming temperatures and recent melting, blowing snow should be minimal. Temperatures will climb to around -10°C by evening but continue rising through the overnight period to nearly -2°C by Thursday morning.

Mild air is set to push into Southern Manitoba again on Thursday.
Mild air is set to push into Southern Manitoba again on Thursday.

Thursday will be another beautiful day very reminiscent of Monday this week. Winnipeg will see relatively light winds and mixed skies as the temperature climbs all the way to 4°C. Similar to Monday, there will probably be significant variation across the city with some places climbing several degrees higher to 7-8°C.

Things will take a less pleasant turn on Thursday night when a cold front slices through Southern Manitoba. Gusty winds out of the northwest to 40km/h will accompany some flurry activity that will spread into the Red River Valley from north to south through the mid-to-late evening hours. The wind and any straggling flurries should taper off early Friday morning.

Friday sees an Arctic ridge of high pressure building into Manitoba bringing cooler temperatures with it. In Winnipeg, temperatures will be some 10°C cooler than Thursday with a daytime high only near -7 or -6°C under mainly sunny skies.. Winds will remain light and the temperature will drop close to -20°C on Friday night.

Cool Weekend Ahead

Temperatures will remain well below normal through the weekend in the Red River Valley. Saturday’s high looks to be near -15°C under mainly sunny skies while Sunday sees the coldest axis of air shifting off to the east, allowing temperatures to climb to the low minus single digits with a few cloudy periods.

In the southwest corner of the province, flurries will be possible numerous times over the next 5 days as the main frontal zone sets up across the region and weak disturbances ripple along it.

Warmer for Awhile

Brad Leave a comment

We’ll continue to see warm weather persist this week, but our snow won’t be disappearing any time soon.

Warm air will move across the Prairies on Monday
Warm air will move across the Prairies on Monday

Monday

Monday
3°C / -10°C
Mix of Sun and Cloud

Today will be one of the warmest days this week. High temperatures will edge above zero as a brisk westerly wind allows Pacific air to pour into Manitoba. Naturally, there will be some melting today, but it will do little to dent the massive snowpack in the region.

Tuesday

Tuesday
-7°C / -17°C
Mainly Cloudy. Chance of Flurries.

A high pressure system will slide down from the arctic on Tuesday, bringing a temporary return of chiller weather. It won’t be cold by any means, but it will be cool enough to halt the snow melt. There may be a few flurries around due to the presence of low cloud.

Wednesday

Wednesday
-2°C / -4°C
Mainly Cloudy

A strong southerly flow will develop in southern Manitoba on Wednesday, signaling a return to warmer conditions. Wednesday will be a fairly mild day, but those gusty south winds will make it feel quite a bit cooler than it would otherwise seem.

Long Range

The long range forecast is somewhat ambiguous at this point. Long-range weather prediction models are struggling to figure out what type of weather we’ll see for the rest of March. It appears the most likely outcome is an up and down pattern, with periods of mild weather followed by periods of colder weather. Thankfully, there is no sign of a return to the extreme cold we experienced at the beginning of the month.

Elsewhere in Weather News: March 8th, 2014

Matthieu Leave a comment

Cyclone Takes Aim at Northern Queensland

On Thursday, March 7th an area of convection appeared off the northern coast of Australia in the Arafura Sea, associated with a weak tropical disturbance. Since then the convection has remained nearly stationary due to steering winds being fairly weak but not much organization has occurred. However, the disturbed area is expected to organize quickly today into tomorrow as it drifts slightly to the southeast where shear values are low and sea surface temperatures are very warm; 30-31°C. By Sunday evening it is expected that Gillian become a category two cyclone, just off the northern coast of Queensland.

Infrared satellite image of Gillian looking rather disorganized, but with some deep convection on Friday evening. (Source: CIMSS)
Infrared satellite image of Gillian looking rather disorganized, but with some deep convection on Friday evening. (Source: CIMSS)

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) warns that winds could approach 150km/h in areas closest to where it makes landfall. Shoreline areas are most at risk along the peninsula due to the storm surge and large waves. Flooding/flash flooding is also expected as areas along the coast have received around 850mm in February; over double their average rainfall for that month. Another 250-400mm could fall in the region due to Gillian. It is expected that Gillian linger through the beginning of next week and die out as it continues south over land.

Queensland's rainfall for the past 30 days, note the area of 800+mm, this is where Gillian is headed. (Source:BoM)
Queensland’s rainfall for the past 30 days, note the area of 800+mm, this is where Gillian is headed. (Source:BoM)

Interestingly enough a second, weaker, cyclone is spinning off the east coast of Queensland and is expected to make landfall at about the same time that Gillian does as a strong category one. Both cyclones are to watch Sunday into the beginning of next week as they pose a threat to the northern and eastern areas of Queensland. The Australian cyclone season begins November 1st and ends April 30th and on average they see about ten cyclones per year.

A Sunny Reprieve

Brad Leave a comment

After being inundated with disturbance after disturbance and many areas in the province seeing a fresh 10-20cm of snow, a ridge of high pressure is building into the region and will bring a benign break from the snow at the cost of slightly cooler temperatures.

Friday
-10°C / -22°C
Clearing early & breezy.

Saturday
-9°C / ⇑ -7°C
Mainly sunny.

Sunday
+1°C / -5°C ⇑
Partly cloudy.

Skies will clear early this morning as breezing northwesterly winds – at 30-40km/h – draw in cooler air to the Red River Valley. Here in Winnipeg we’ll see a high around -9°C. Temperatures will drop into the -20’s tonight as we sit under that ridge of high pressure mentioned above. Saturday will bring mainly sunny skies with a high near -8°C and winds around 15-20km/h shifting to be out of the southwest.

Saturday night will drop to only around -10°C early in the night and then warm up to around -7°C as warmer air starts pushing into Manitoba from the west. We’ll enjoy a warm day with cloudy periods on Sunday as temperatures climb above the freezing mark to +1°C. Temperatures will fall only around -5°C thanks to cloudy skies overnight.

Those cloudy skies Sunday night will be the result of low pressure system pushing across the Prairies. It will bring the potential for some shower or flurry activity to Winnipeg on Monday, however the bulk of precipitation looks to remain further north.

Overall, a nice weekend ahead! Get out there and enjoy it!