Elsewhere in Weather News: October 5th, 2013

Matthieu Leave a comment

Quadruple threat in the US this Week

All kinds of extreme weather have been plaguing the United States this week; from tropical storms, tornadoes to blizzards to severe Santa Ana winds, they’ve just about seen it all. It was all happening yesterday due to a dynamic low pressure system centered in the Northern US Plains. High pressure building behind the low pressure system was responsible for the Santa Ana winds. The tropical storm, a completely separate system, has been targeting the gulf shores for a few days now.

The powerful fall low pressure system was drawing in brisk air from the north behind it which helped produce ideal conditions for blizzard conditions in the Black Hills. It was not unusual to see snowfall rates in excess of 5cm/h throughout the day on Friday in the region. The hardest hit area in regards to snow looked to be Lead, SD, which by Friday night had received 110cm (in less than 48 hours!), and another 20-30cm could fall before deformation zone moves off.

Lead, SD snow

Streetcam picture of the snow accumulated in Lead, SD. Keep in mind there was no snow on the ground less than 48 hours ago! (Source: Twitter: @TylerJRoney)

Deadwood, SD snow drifts

Incredible image of a large snow drift almost completely covering the front door in Deadwood, SD. (Source: Twitter: @ReadingReineke)

In the warm sector of the same system severe thunderstorms were spawned on Friday. A few supercells formed in the late afternoon near the triple point in northern Nebraska/extreme southern South Dakota. With extremely favourable conditions for tornadoes, storms quickly started rotating. The number of tornadoes is still unclear at this time but a violent, long tracked, wedge tornado which was reported to be over a mile wide, touched down. Per initial reports it appears as though Wayne, NE was the hardest hit on Friday by this tornado. Houses and factories were completely demolished and two dozen people were reported injured. A squall line also evolved further south into Kansas and Oklahoma where large hail and severe wind were the main threats.

Wayne, NE damage

Damage of a factory destroyed in Wayne, NE from the tornado that hit the town. (Source: Twitter: @action3news)

The Santa Ana winds have been a treat to California this week, too. These winds get funneled through the Mountains of Southern California, subsequently warm and dry as they descend in elevation. Gusts in excess of 110km/h have been tearing through Southern California bringing with them an extreme fire risk. This prompted the National Weather Service (NWS) to issue multiple red flag warnings for the area – these warnings are issued when conditions are ideal for wildfires and quick intensification. The NWS also added that these were the worst winds in five years.

As for the tropical storm (Karen) spinning in the Gulf of Mexico, it does not appear that it will become a significant hurricane. Strong wind shear has been affecting its development for the past few days. It will likely make landfall as a tropical storm with winds of tropical storm force, but possibly even weaker depending on how much the shear tears the storm apart. The location of the landfall looks to be on the south-east gulf shores of Louisiana. It doesn’t appear as though its effects will be too significant to the US – heavy rain will be the main threat with Karen. Otherwise, the tropics continue to remain unusually calm and no other developments elsewhere in the Atlantic basin are expected in the near future.

Uneventful and Cooler End to the Work Week

Brad Leave a comment

A strong low pressure system located to our south-east, in the Northern US Plains, is expected to bring the Dakotas their first snowfall accumulation for the 2013-2014 winter season but will only clip portions of extreme south-east Manitoba.

US Plains low

Low pressure system affecting Northern Plains depicted here for 4PM CDT today. It will keep us cool and cloudy for most of the afternoon/evening.

Friday

Friday

8°C / 1°C
Becoming overcast early on in the day.

Today, temperatures will be slightly on the cool side. The strong system aforementioned will be drawing in cooler air from the north into southern Manitoba. Models are in agreement that rain and snow will stay out of Winnipeg, though there is a slight chance that regions in extreme south-east Manitoba get some showers Friday evening. Winnipeg can expect to see a high near the 8°C mark with increasing cloudiness throughout the day. In the afternoon and evening winds will be stronger 20km/h gusting to 40km/h coming out of the north. It will be a notably chilly day; our high will be some 7-8°C below normal for this time of year. West of the Red River Valley will be even chillier with highs only expected in the mid-single digits. For Friday night, there is a small chance of frost in Winnipeg but areas more at risk lie to the west of the city.

Saturday

Saturday

10°C / -1°C
Mainly sunny.

Saturday looks to be a nicer day, compared to today; mostly sunny skies combined with slightly higher temperatures around 10°C. The only potential downfall looks to be the wind which will still be fairly strong in the afternoon: 20-30km/h from the north before it dies down in the evening. Saturday night will be a chilly one with high pressure in our region, light winds and clear skies for the most part; Winnipeg has a good chance at seeing some frost.

Sunday & Beyond

Sunday

13°C / 4°C
Mainly sunny, a few stray clouds.

The weekend looks to end on a good note with mainly sunny conditions under more of a westerly flow. Highs in the low to mid-teens can be expected for southern Manitoba. Winnipeg looks to see a return to seasonal temperatures with a high of around 13°C weaker winds than the past few days.

For the beginning of the next work week temperatures appear to stay near normal as high pressure moves in. As the high pressure system moves east, a return flow will likely bring in some warmer, above normal, temperatures to the Red River Valley by Tuesday.

Cooler Weather Settling In

Brad Leave a comment

After a windy day yesterday, Southern Manitoba will see cooler weather through the remainder of the week as a fairly seasonal air mass sits anchored over the region. While cool, things will remain dry as any showery weather remains locked up in Central Manitoba & the Northern Interlake.

The Next Few Days

Wednesday

16°C / 3°C
Some cloudy periods.
Thursday

16°C / 3°C
Partly cloudy.
Friday

10°C / 2°C
Increasing cloud, cooler.

Today and tomorrow will be essentially carbon copies of each other. Highs will sit around 16°C with overnight lows near 3°C. Winds are expected to be fairly light both today and tomorrow. Both days will have some cloud around; today we’ll see some cloud pushing up from North Dakota through the Red River Valley while tomorrow we’ll see some cloud slumping southwards from the Interlake. While there may be some light shower activity with the cloud pushing southwards from the Interlake, at this point the entirety of it is expected to remain west of the Red River Valley in the Riding Mountain region slumping southwards into SW Manitoba.

Things will cool off a bit on Friday in the Red River Valley as an intensifying low pressure system in South Dakota/Minnesota draws cooler air from the north into the Red River Valley through the day. Any rain this system produces will remain south of the Canada/U.S. border in the Dakotas and Minnesota. We’ll see some cloud push into the Red River Valley through the day thanks to this system. Exactly who will see cloud and who won’t will be tough to call; the cloud will likely have quite a sharp edge thanks to a strong deformation zone. It will be fairly safe to say that places such as Steinbach and areas SE will end up overcast by day’s end while areas west of Winnipeg, such as Portage la Prairie, will likely remain fairly sunny. Here in Winnipeg we’ll likely sit somewhere near the edge of the edge of the cloud by day’s end.

Looking to the Weekend

The weekend looks fairly quiet over much of Southern Manitoba. Benign weather will dominate over SW Manitoba, things should remain fairly calm over the Red River Valley and the SE portion of the province will see a shot of getting some rain.

An area of rain looks to push northwards out of North Dakota and Northern Minnesota as a developing low lifts NE out of Minnesota on Friday night. The area of rain will have a very sharp edge on it’s northwestern flank thanks to the aforementioned strong deformation zone. Most models are keeping all of the rain in the United States, however some higher-resolution long-range and medium-range models are starting to creep the system a little further west and introduce some rain activity into SE Manitoba on Saturday, likely through the Sprague region. At this point, I’d say that the region has just a slight chance of some rain.

The Red River Valley looks to remain completely clear of the rain for this system with mostly clear skies and cool-to-seasonal temperatures.

October Won’t Have a Scary Start

Brad Leave a comment

October won’t start off with any scary weather, but I can guarantee the month will end on a frightening note!

Tuesday Will be a Very Windy Day in Southern Manitoba

Monday

Monday

Mix of Sun and Cloud. Chance of Showers Late.
22°C / 8°C

Today will be a nice day in Southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be in the low twenties, under a mix of sun and cloud. The wind will be breezy and from the south-west. A cold front will push through Southern Manitoba on Monday night, setting up a cooler Tuesday. There may also be some light rain showers associated with this front, but it will be a hit and miss type of rain event.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Tuesday

Increasing Cloudiness
17°C / 4°C
Wednesday

Mix of Sun and Cloud
15°C / 6°C

The first day of October will neither be really good, nor really bad. On the one hand it will be a seasonably warm day, with temperatures in the mid to upper teens. However, it will also be a very windy day, with westerly winds of 40-50km/h gusting to 60-70km/h (winds may reach 60km/h gusting to 80km/h on a localized basis). Unfortunately, that strong wind will make conditions much less pleasant than they otherwise would be.

Wednesday looks to be much less windy than Tuesday, but it will still be on the breezy side. Temperatures will be in the mid teens, with a westerly wind of 20-30km/h gusting to 40-50km/h.

Long Range

The long range forecast is looking more October-like. Another cold front is currently forecast to move through Manitoba on Wednesday night, bringing in cooler conditions to end the week. Models are also hinting at a strong low pressure system passing near or just south of Manitoba later this week. Should this system take a more northern track, it could impact Southern Manitoba…but it’s too early to say.