Cold Week Ahead for Winnipeg

Brad Leave a comment

It will be a cold week ahead in the city as the Polar Vortex continues to supply the region with Arctic air.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday February 2, 2023
One last surge of bitter cold will spread across the Prairies for Thursday before this outbreak of Arctic air begins to weaken.

The Polar Vortex will remain entrenched over Canada’s eastern Arctic region this week, sustaining a persist northwesterly flow across the Prairies. This will keep temperatures well below seasonal averages through the rest of the week.

Daytime highs will vary through the week, ranging from a few degrees on the warm side of -20 °C on Wednesday to a much colder high near -25 °C on Thursday. Overnight lows will generally sit in the -25 to -30 °C range, though lows could reach into the -30s tonight.

The slightly warmer weather on Wednesday will be courtesy a weak disturbance moving through the region. It will bring cloud cover and a bit of light snow to the region as it moves through. The bigger impact it will bring to the region will be a strong cold front that sweeps through on Wednesday night. It will bring moderate northerly winds to the region, some blowing snow, and plummeting temperatures.

That cold air mass that moves in behind is what will keep the daytime highs so low on Thursday. Temperatures will likely dip back below -30 °C on Thursday night again.

On Friday, cloudier skies will move into the region as a slow pattern change begins to take shape. Temperatures will likely climb back into the -15 to -20 °C range, but a stiff southerly wind will make it feel pretty cold outside.

Long Range Outlook

I mentioned last week that it looked like the polar vortex would begin to destabilize heading into this weekend. Fortunately, that still looks to be the case; by the end of the week, its structure looks to become far more wobbly and will likely be pulled northwards back towards the pole by the end of the weekend.

As a result, we’ll likely see the worst of the cold leave the region this weekend, leaving behind closer to seasonal temperatures across much of the Prairies. There may be a bit of light snow through this process, but at this time no significant snowfalls are in the forecast.

Layer up and stay warm this week; relief is on the horizon!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -22 °C.

Here Comes the Deep Freeze

Brad Leave a comment

A surge of bitterly cold Arctic air will send temperatures plummeting across southern Manitoba this weekend. The upside is that the cold weather may not last too long…

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Friday January 27, 2023RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Saturday January 28, 2023
Moderate northerly winds will help a pool of bitterly cold Arctic air surge southwards today. Lows may reach as cold as -30 to -35 °C on Saturday morning.

Much colder weather is on the way to Southern Manitoba in the wake of the snow that moved through yesterday evening. The clipper system that brought a coating of snow to the region was the harbinger ahead of an Arctic air mass dropping southwards into the Prairies. Its approach today will be marked by moderate to strong northerly winds near 40 gusting 60 km/h and gradually cooling temperatures.

The moderate winds, temperatures in the -10 to -15 °C range, and very fluffy snow from yesterday will combine to produce widespread blowing snow through the Red River Valley today. Conditions in Winnipeg will fare better, but even parts of the Perimeter Highway may see deteriorating travel conditions at times today.

Temperatures will continue drop tonight as an Arctic ridge builds into the Prairies. Lows will drop all the way to around -30 °C with mainly clear skies and easing winds.

Saturday will bring sunny skies to the region with a high climbing just short of -20 °C. Winds will stay light through the day. Some cloud cover will build into the region on Saturday night as an upper trough slumps into the area. This will help keep overnight lows a tad warmer, but some of that effect will be offset by a surge of colder air heading into the region as well. The overnight low on Saturday night will likely end up somewhere in the -25 to -30 °C range.

Winnipeg will likely see partly cloudy skies on Sunday with a high a degree or two cooler than Saturday. Skies will clear out for Sunday night and allow overnight lows to likely dip into the -30 to -35 °C range.

Extreme cold warnings are likely at some point over the coming days as the overnight low temperatures will make it fairly trivial to reach -40 wind chill values.

Long Range Outlook

The first half of next week will continue to be cold with daytime highs near -20 °C or colder with mainly sunny conditions. Heading into the second half of the week, though, there may be some improvement.

Long-range weather models all show the driving feature for this cold snap — the Polar Vortex situated over Canada’s Eastern Arctic — weakening towards the end of the week. If that happens, then temperatures would likely moderate with highs into the mid-minus teens by the end of the week. One can hope at least.

Get the long johns and snow pants out, here comes winter!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -12 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.

Mild Winter Weather Continues for a Few More Days

Brad Leave a comment

Despite a vigorous cold front sweeping through the region yesterday, seasonably mild weather will persist the rest of the work week. But get ready, it looks like a blast of Arctic air is on the horizon.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 00Z Thursday January 26, 2023
Colder weather will gradually build into northern Manitoba this week.

Winnipeg will continue to see mixed to cloudy skies this week in the wake of yesterday’s cold front that borough some light snow to the region through the day. Through the rest of the work week, a stalled front will stretch from northern Saskatchewan to southeastern Manitoba, with a few weak disturbances rippling along it. Not only will this maintain the cloud, it will bring the a good chance for occasional bouts of light snow through the week.

Some light accumulations of snow are most likely this morning, then a few flurries might slide across the Red River Valley through Wednesday. A more organized system will bring accumulating snow to much of southern Manitoba sometime Thursday afternoon through the night. This final system could bring as much as 4 to 8 cm of snow to some areas by Friday morning.

Over these days, daytime highs will generally sit in -5 to -10 °C range expect for Wednesday which will likely see a high slightly cooler than -10 °C. Overnight lows will vary quite a bit depending on how much cloud sticks around, but most will settle in the -15 to -20 °C range.

Long Range Outlook

Friday’s passing low will bring about a fairly substantial pattern change. This system will be bolstered by a cross-polar surge of Arctic air that pushes the Polar Vortex southwards into Canada’s eastern Arctic region. This will allow much colder air to spill southwards into the Prairies, bringing some bitter cold that the region hasn’t seen since  shortly before Christmas last year.

Forecasts show a strong cold front surging southwards through southern Manitoba on Friday night. Temperatures will plummet behind it with Winnipeg’s overnight low dropping into the low minus 20s. This weekend, daytime highs will struggle to reach the -20 to -25 °C range with overnight lows likely dipping to -30 °C.

Some models show a low pressure system passing through the region on Sunday night; if this happens, stronger northerly winds on Monday morning will likely result in blowing snow across the region.

With the surge of much colder conditions, wind chill values will dip towards the -40 mark. There’s a good chance that some extreme cold warnings will spread from Northern Manitoba into southern Manitoba through the weekend.

It’s been exceptionally mild winter so far and it was inevitable that we’d get some very cold temperatures before the season was up. Enjoy the relative warmth this week, and prepare to bundle up for the weekend!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.

More Cloudy and Mild Weather

Brad Leave a comment

At this point, there’s not much to say that hasn’t been said multiple times before: the cloudy and seasonably mild weather will continue this week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday January 19, 2023
Typical winter cold will continue to be missing in action across the Prairies this week.

With the truly cold Arctic air locked up over the High Arctic and Russia, mild weather persists across the Canadian Prairies. Here in Manitoba, pleasant January temperatures will continue this week with highs in the -5 to -10 °C range. Today will be on the colder side of that range, then days will gradually warm through the week. Overnight lows will vary, but generally sit in the -10 to -15 °C range, though if any clear skies manage to form in the nights ahead, lows could dip a bit colder than that.

Otherwise, the weather will be fairly benign this week. A ridge building into the province will bring northerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h to the region today. Winds will ease tonight, then stay light for much of the week ahead. Skies will stay mostly cloudy this week, though an odd clear patch is possible, particularly mid-week.

Don’t expect any notable snow this week, just the chance for some occasional light non-accumulating snow. Pretty much just more of the same: mild, cloudy, and benign weather.

Long Range Outlook

Looking further ahead, warm weather will continue into the weekend with a bit of snow possible on Sunday. After that, a cold front will push through the region and send temperatures back to near-seasonal values. By the middle of next week, daytime highs will likely sit in the -10 to -15 °C with overnight lows dipping towards -20 °C.

Beyond that, it’s beginning to look like the end of January will bring a shift into a colder pattern as the Polar Vortex begins slumping southwards through Canada. Daytime highs could continue to slip into the mid-minus 20s with overnight lows back towards -30 °C into the final days of January.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.