Temperatures in the low 30’s combined with dewpoints in the low 20’s will make it feel like 40 degrees today.
A slow-moving low pressure system associated with a sharp, digging upper trough over the west coast is bringing southerly winds to the RRV under strong southwesterlies aloft.
850mb temperatures are climbing into the mid-20’s ahead of these features, which when combined with a southerly 40G60 km/h wind and sunny skies, will result in the temperatures soaring into the low 30’s today across much of Southern Manitoba, with temperatures reaching to near 35°C just on our side of the international border. The strong winds will also last into the evening, keeping the air well mixed, which means we can expect very warm temperatures (> 25°C) probably past midnight.
Tomorrow we will recover a few degrees from our overnight low and then cool in the afternoon with the passage of a cold front. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow associated with the cold front, however timing of the passage will be critical in determining who will or won’t get any precipitation/storms. Currently, models are suggesting that the cold front precipitation will fire up just east of Winnipeg, so areas like Dugald & Steinback would see afternoon showers. The GEM has been under-doing the lift associated with this entire system, however, and positioning will be crucial, so it’s too early to say much, other than tomorrow will be cooler, cloudier, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms will hang around the RRV from late morning to the evening hours.
Showers will move across Southern Manitoba tomorrow as a weak Alberta Clipper moves through the province. Then, summer returns.
A quickly-moving wave currently over the Alberta/Saskatchewan border will move southeast across Saskatchewan and then veer East and head across Southern Manitoba tomorrow. Along the way, it will lose a fair amount of energy and as a result, we can expect scattered showers or rain tomorrow for a good chunk of the Red River Valley. It looks like there will be very little potential for any convection with the passage of this system.
After this system moves out of the province Tuesday night, winds will slowly veer and start blowing out of the south again. It will not take long for summer to return with daytime highs in the mid-to-high 20’s by the end of the week. Dewpoints will also rise to the mid-to-high teens by Sunday as well, which will solidly cement us as “back in summer.”
As for active weather, after tomorrow, it looks like the next rainy days could be Saturday or Monday, but that’s a long ways out and we’ll wait and see what sets up. Enjoy the warmer weather that’s on the way later this week!
Photo from Mike O’Flaherty to CJOB
Winnipeggers were woken by a severe thunderstorm on Friday morning around 5:40AM. The storm ripped through Winnipeg leaving torrential rains in it’s wake. Rob wrote an excellent summary of some of the damages that occurred in Winnipeg, including flooded underpasses, power outages, and explosive manhole covers.
Later that day, convection fired up through the RRV and brought another round of heavy rain. Winnipeg had only heavy rainshowers that caused some localized flooding. There was another tornado report out of Steinbach, however. Looking through the damages, I’m highly doubtful that it’s a tornado. While they’ve had more than their fair share of strong wind events this year, it’s a little ironic that we get more false tornado reports out of one of the only storm-ready communities than a lot of other places it seems.
Now moving on to this weekend’s weather for Winnipeg.
A large upper low positioned north of Winnipeg is bringing huge amounts of rain to the province. A heavy rain warning exists for Grand Rapids right now, with Environment Canada expecting between 50-75mm of rain. Through today, rain will wrap around the upper low and spread into the northern RRV by early afternoon. The models are vary slightly in the exact positioning, but by this evening, areas in the RRV north of Morris can expect rain. The upper low sinks to the SE overnight, drawing the wrap-around precipitation further south, and most communities within the RRV should expect a fairly rainy Sunday with unseasonably cool temperatures with daytime highs only in the mid-teens.
After this system clears out on Sunday night, the northern half of the RRV will see somewhere from 10-20mm of rain, while the southern half will see more along the lines of 5-10mm, perhaps as high as 15mm. Following this system should be a relatively unremarkable week. Cooler temperatures will be the name of the game, with daytime highs around 20 degrees. The current forecast is for sunshine, however don’t expect completely clear skies as while we may be in a cooler airmass, we still have a strong August sun, which will likely produce lovely cumulus-filled afternoon skies.
One last thing to watch out for in the deceptive Environment Canada “a sunny week!” forecast is the fact that Winnipeg will be under a northwest flow for the duration of the week. The weather has a sneaky habit of throwing little shortwaves down in a northwest flow that the model doesn’t pick up very well, and should any of these happen (as is even being hinted at for Monday evening), we could easily see another batch of showers and/or thunderstorms.
So instead of thinking this coming week will be a beautiful sunny week, wear thicker shirts, bring a jacket, and don’t be surprised if it ends up more unsettled than the forecasts are hinting at right now.