Mild Start to the Week, But The Deep Freeze Looms

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Mild, cloudy weather will stay over Winnipeg through the first half of the work week. The warmth will come to an abrupt end mid-week as bitter cold returns to the region for an extended period.

An upper ridge will support a southerly flow over the next few days, pushing mild temperatures across the province. The downside to the warmth will be fairly persistent cloud cover over much of the coming days. A few sunny breaks are possible in Winnipeg today, but skies should generally stay on the cloudier side. Temperatures will climb to a high near -6 °C today with light southeast winds picking up into the 15–25 km/h range by evening. The wind will increase into the 30–40 km/h range overnight with a low near -9 °C.

Tuesday will bring cloudy skies to the region as temperatures climb to a high near -2 °C. It will be windy with southerlies of 40–50 km/h, making it a relatively unpleasant day out in the Red River Valley. The winds will ease to 20 km/h by Wednesday morning with temperatures dipping to a low near -4 °C.

RDPS 12hr. Snowfall Accumulation (at 10:1 SLR) valid 06Z Thursday February 4, 2021
Much of southern Manitoba will see some snow on Wednesday, but ht heaviest amounts will occur north of the Trans-Canada Highway.

On Tuesday night, a low pressure system will move from eastern Saskatchewan into northern Manitoba. The warm-sector trough of this system will move through the Red River Valley on Wednesday morning, followed by some snow in the afternoon. Closely behind the snow will be an Arctic cold front surging across the Prairies. After 2–5 cm of snow, northwest winds will strengthen up to 40 gusting 60 km/h on Wednesday night. Temperatures will begin to plummet to a low near -17 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Bitterly cold air will build into the Prairie through the rest of the work week with daytime highs falling below -20 °C by Saturday. This bitterly cold air will likely stick around through next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.

Milder, Cloudy Weather Ahead

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An upper ridge building across the Prairies will bring warm weather and plenty of cloud to Winnipeg this weekend.

Warmer weather arrives in Winnipeg today, thawing the region from the snap of cold air that settled over the region earlier in the week. Clouds moved in overnight and are going to stick around for at least the next three days. As a result, though, temperatures will stay fairly steady. Highs through the weekend will hover near -6 °C.

The wind will pick up out of the southeast into the 20–30 km/h range today. The wind will keep up through most of the night, keeping temperatures mild with a low of just -8 or -9 °C. The winds will ease for Saturday and Sunday, allowing lows to dip into the minus teens.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday January 30, 2021
Temperatures will warm back above seasonal averages across southern Manitoba this weekend.

A weak trough will move across southern Manitoba on Saturday, likely bringing some light snow with it. Nothing more than a dusting is likely with 1–2 cm possible by the end of the day. A few flurries are possible overnight into early Sunday morning, but any remaining snow will taper off by midday Sunday.

Long Range Outlook

The mainly cloudy and mild conditions will continue into mid-week. A low pressure system moving through on Wednesday will bring some more snow to the region and usher in another blast of Arctic air. Temperatures are forecast to plummet back to below-seasonal values for the end of next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -22 °C.

Arctic Grip Slowly Eases

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Temperatures will warm in Winnipeg over the coming days as upper-level ridging builds across the Prairies.

There’s still one more day of bitter cold ahead for the city today. The Arctic ridge responsible for the frigid temperatures will slowly shift across the province through the day. This will keep daytime highs again near the -23 °C mark with light winds and sunny skies. Temperatures will quickly dip to around -27 °C this evening, but then moderate slightly as some cloud cover arrives with a push of milder air.

Thursday will bring mixed skies to the city as some morning cloud breaks up for the afternoon. The city will get its reprieve from the cold as temperatures climb to a seasonal high near -12 °C. Winds will be light out of the southeast at 10–20 km/h. This will mark the beginning of a shift into a warmer pattern as the polar vortex consolidates over the high Arctic and Pacific begins to wash over the region. Temperatures will dip to a low near -18 °C on Thursday night with partly cloudy skies.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday January 29, 2021
Seasonably mild temperatures will replace the deep freeze over southern Manitoba by Friday.

A warmer air mass will continue to push into the province for Friday, bringing increasing cloudiness with it. Temperatures will climb back to seasonably warm values with a high near -8 °C and winds will pick up out of the southeast again into the 20–30 km/h range. A few flurries are possible, but any snow will likely hold off until overnight. Temperatures will dip to a low near -10°C.

Long Range Outlook

Southern Manitoba will see more cloud and light snow this weekend as an upper trough migrates across the region. Temperatures will stay warm with highs in the mid-minus single digits and early indications suggest snow accumulations of 2–5 cm around the Winnipeg area.

The mild temperatures will stick around into next week, although a return to seasonal temperatures looks possible mid-week with the passage of another low pressure system.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -12 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.

Bitter Cold Arrives

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Extremely cold temperatures will stay entrenched over southern Manitoba through the first half of the week.

Winnipeg will see mainly cloudy skies today, supported by a weak inverted trough collapsing southwards into the United States. This cloud cover will bring a few flurries to the region, but most of it will stay south of Winnipeg. In the city, there will a chance for a bit of light snow, but mainly in the morning hours.

The cloud cover won’t help temperatures much. The main story over the coming days will be the bitter cold over the region. Temperatures won’t climb above -20 °C over the next two days, and only nudge above the mark on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be bitterly cold and dip below -30 °C both tonight and Tuesday night. Note that these overnight lows are difficult to forecast; there is a chance that temperatures could dip even colder than this, or stay a bit warmer. The difference in outcomes is subtle, but its worth noting that temperatures of -35 to -40 °C have occurred over western Manitoba into central and northern Saskatchewan. This is the air mass that will move into the Red River Valley today.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 15Z Tuesday January 26, 2021
Bitterly cold temperatures will spread into southern Manitoba over the coming days.

Extreme cold warnings will be likely as it does not take much wind to drive wind chills below -40 with these bitterly cold overnight lows.

Skies will clear out Monday night and stay mainly sunny right through Wednesday. Some cloud will begin working into the region late Wednesday as warmer air starts to move towards the province.

Long Range Outlook

The upper flow supporting the bitterly cold temperatures will collapse in the second half of the week. This will allow milder air to surge back across the Prairies and send temperatures back to seasonal or seasonably mild for the latter half of the week. Comparatively pleasant winter weather will persist through the weekend with a chance for a few centimetres of snow on Saturday.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -12 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.