Unseasonably Cool Weekend Ahead

Unseasonably cool temperatures will be seen across all of Manitoba through the duration of the Easter long weekend thanks to an Arctic air mass that was ushered into the region behind a potent cold front that brought intense snow showers and strong winds yesterday. In addition to the cooler temperatures, the s-word will likely be seen in many regions along and south of the Trans-Canada corridor over the next couple days.

Friday
-1°C / -9°C
Flurries beginning midday
Saturday
-3°C / -12°C
Morning snow likely, then clearing
Sunday
-2°C / -10°C
Mainly sunny & cool

A clear and cold start to the day in Winnipeg will see more cloud move into the area through the morning as a weak disturbance slides through the region. Flurries will move into the Red River Valley midday and linger into the evening. Winds will be light and daytime highs will climb to around -1°C. A chance for flurries will persist overnight as another weak disturbance begins approaching from Saskatchewan. Temperatures will dip to around -9°C tonight.

RDPS 24hr. QPF  – Valid 12Z April 4, 2015
Precipitation totals forecast by the RDPS from Friday morning through Saturday morning.

As the next disturbance ripples through tomorrow morning, it will push an area of snow through the province. Amounts from this band will be around 1cm and will be centered from the Parkland region southeastwards into the southwestern Red River Valley. Winnipeg will be on the northern edge of the system and will likely see some snow through the morning hours. Once the disturbance moves past, clearing will begin pushing into the Red River Valley. Daytime highs will be a bit cooler than today at around -3°C or so with winds out of the north at 20km/h. Saturday night will bring mainly clear skies and a low near -12°C.

Sunday will be another cool, but mainly sunny, day. For areas near the U.S. border, the story will be different as a low pressure system moving through the States pushes a band of flurries through the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. Highs will be around -2°C on Sunday with lows down to -10°C on Sunday night.

Long Range

Next week is looking like a return to form; daytime highs are expected to rebound to a seasonal 6°C by mid-week at the latest when a chance for showers returns as another low pressure system moves through Manitoba. Before then, we’ll see plenty of sunshine making for fairly pleasant days despite the slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures.

Cold Snap for the Weekend

Friday afternoon 850mb temperature forecast (RDPS)
Cooler weather is on the way for the weekend as a significant pool of Arctic air grazes Southern Manitoba.

Much cooler temperatures are on the way for the weekend – especially overnight lows – as a push of Arctic air slumps southwards behind the cold front that passed through Southern Manitoba last night. The result will be below normal daytime highs and some exceptionally cold nights for mid-March.

Friday
-2°C / -19°C
Mostly cloudy; slight chance of morning flurries

Saturday
-5°C / -12°C
Partly cloudy

Sunday
-2°C / -10°C
Increasing cloud

Today will be a mostly cloudy day with some sunny breaks this afternoon, however the main weather for the day will be the brisk northerly winds to 30–40km/h that pick up through the day. These winds will be ushering in significantly cooler air for this evening. Fortunately, temperatures will be able to recover a little bit today before the colder air pushes in with high temperatures reaching a slightly below-normal[1] –2°C. Unfortunately, the cold air slams into the Red River Valley tonight. Temperatures will drop to around –19°C overnight.

Saturday and Sunday look fairly quiet weather-wise. After a very cold start to the morning, temperatures on Saturday should climb to around –5°C under partly cloudy skies. This high will be around 6°C below normal. Temperatures will dip just below –10°C on Saturday night and then climb back up to –2°C or so on Sunday afternoon. Sunday looks to start fairly sunny but see increasing cloudiness through the day as a disturbance slips across southwestern Manitoba.

Seasonal Weather Returns Next Week

Seasonal highs anywhere from 0 to +4°C will return for the start of next week. Conditions look fairly dry, however early indications point to a system moving through Southern Manitoba mid-week that could bring some rain (or less likely, snow) to the area.


  1. Normal daytime highs for this time of year are around +1°C.  ↩

Cooling Down Again

We’ll have a warm, but windy, Monday before another arctic cold front comes through, returning below-normal temperatures to the region.

Monday will be warm and windy as strong southerlies develop
Monday will be warm and windy as strong southerlies develop
Monday
-6°C / -18°C
Mainly sunny

Today will be warm, but windy as a strong southerly flow develops ahead of a cold front. Wind speeds will be 40km/h gusting to 60km/h, making it feel significantly colder than it will actually be. High temperatures in the mid to upper minus single digits will end up feeling more like -15 to -20 when you factor in the wind.

Tuesday
-16°C / -24°C
Mainly cloudy with flurries

An arctic cold front will move through early on Tuesday, ushering in colder weather once again. As the cold front goes through we’ll also see some flurries, but accumulations will be small. Wind speeds will really pick up in association with this front, with north-west winds of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h for much of the day. This will send wind chill values close to -30.

Wednesday
-21°C / -28°C
Mix of sun and cloud with chance of flurries

Wednesday will be even colder than Tuesday as arctic air becomes entrenched in southern Manitoba. High temperatures will be near -20, with the wind chill making it feel more like the -30s. We may also see some light flurries throughout the day as the low-levels of the atmosphere become unstable.

Long Range

Long range models suggest we’ll begin to see more frequent warm weather by next weekend. This will be the result of a western ridge extending further east into Manitoba. That doesn’t mean all the snow is suddenly going to disappear, but it will certainly be more pleasant. March 1 was the beginning of meteorological spring, so it’s just a matter of time before spring actually arrives!

Cool Weather Continuing, but Hope on the Horizon

The next few days will see cool weather continuing as yet another Arctic high pushes through the region. It’s not all bad news, however, as it seems like we may see a brief break from the cold this weekend into the beginning of next week as the coldest core of air pushes off to our east.

Wednesday
-18°C / -27°C
Gradual clearing with a chance of flurries

Thursday
-16°C / -24°C
Mainly sunny

Friday
-12°C / -20°C
Mainly sunny

Today will start off with mainly cloudy skies and see gradual clearing as the day progresses. Temperatures will warm up to around -18°C with a chance of some flurry activity through midday into the afternoon. Winds will strengthen to around 30km/h this afternoon ahead of the incoming Arctic ridge. Skies will clear through the evening as the temperature heads to a low near -27°C.

Thursday and Friday will be quiet, cool days with highs near -16°C & -12°C respectively and mainly sunny skies.

Warmer Weather on Tap For The Weekend

As mentioned above, a brief reprieve is in store through the weekend into early next week as warmer temperatures work into the region. Highs look to sit near -10°C on Saturday and Sunday with some flurry activity possible on Sunday. Monday may see even warmer temperatures climbing towards the -5°C mark.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook

Heading further into next week it looks like the cold weather will return. The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature anomaly outlook shows a high probability of below-normal temperatures returning to the region.