Quiet, Mild Weekend Ahead

A very benign weather pattern will move over Southern Manitoba as a ridge of high pressure builds into Manitoba bringing increasingly sunny skies and temperatures slowly trying to climb towards seasonal.

Friday

21°C / 9°C
A mix of sun & cloud.
Saturday

24°C / 11°C
Mainly sunny.
Sunday

24°C / 11°C
Mainly sunny

We’ll see a mix of sun and cloud today as daytime heating is able to produce some shallow convection, but there won’t be enough instability remaining to produce any precipitation as subsidence moves in ahead of the approaching ridge of high pressure. Today will be our coolest day with temperatures only climbing into the low 20’s. Tonight will be quite cool with our temperature dropping just under 10°C by tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow we’ll be under the influence of the high and we’ll see mainly sunny skies as temperatures climb back towards more seasonal highs – which for this time is around 26°C – of around 24°C. Sunday will be nearly a carbon copy of Saturday with a high near 24°C and an overnight low of around 11°C.

Next Week

We’ll start next week with a fairly nice day on holiday Monday with highs in the mid–20’s under a mix of sun and cloud.

NAEFS 8-14 Temperature Anomaly Outlook produced at 12Z August 1, 2013

NAEFS 8–14 Temperature Anomaly Outlook produced at 12Z August 1, 2013. Areas in red indicate above-normal temperatures, while areas in blue indicate below-normal temperatures, expected for the week after next (8–14 days from now).

The rest of the week looks to be fairly steady temperature-wise, however some models are hinting at a system that may bring some showers or thunderstorms to the region mid-week. No significant warm-up is in sight as a persistent vortex continues to redevelop over northern Ontario and Hudson Bay, keeping a persistent northwesterly flow over the eastern Prairies.

Slightly Cool Weather Continues

A persistent low-pressure centre over Hudson Bay will continue to bring cool nights and mild, but not hot, summer days to Winnipeg as it blocks the jet stream from pushing northwards into the southern Prairies.

Wednesday

23°C / 13°C
Partly cloudy with a slight chance of late-day showers.
Thursday

22°C / 12°C
Partly cloudy with a tiny chance of late-day showers.
Friday

22°C / 10°C
Partly cloudy.

The next few days will see very little variation as cooler air ever so slowly slumps southwards into the Southern Prairies. We’ll see a chance of late-day showers in the Red River Valley today and tomorrow, however the chance is pretty minuscule and by no means will the showers be widespread. Temperatures will climb into the low 20’s for highs and start around 13°C for overnight lows and drop towards the 10°C mark by the end of the week. By friday the chance for showers drops off and we’ll likely just see a few clouds in the afternoon.

No Heat on the Horizon

Looking ahead to the long-range it doesn’t appear we’ll see any hot summer weather headed our way for the next 7–10 days. The low that’s keeping us cool is going to stick around for a couple days before backing up to the west, grabbing another batch of cool Arctic air and then diving southwards towards Southern Manitoba…at least, that’s how it looks now. It seems somewhat reasonable as most models have locked into a fairly consistent west-coast ridge and mid-continental toughing pattern for the next while.

Personally, I love the warm but not hot days and cool nights, although given our long-delayed spring, I’m not going to complain if nature can throw another blast of hot and humid weather our way again.

Sunny Weekend Ahead

Sunny weather will dominate the Red River Valley as a ridge of high pressure moves into Manitoba. Temperatures will be below-normal through the next 3 days as we remain entrenched in a cooler air mass originating from the north while the jet stream remains locked up in the United States.

Friday

20°C / 7°C
Mainly sunny.
Saturday

22°C / 11°C
Mainly sunny.
Sunday

24°C / 13°C
Mainly sunny.

Temperatures will slowly climb back towards the mid-20’s by the end of the weekend, while overnight lows will start at an extremely unseasonably cool 7 or 8°C and warm to around 13°C by Sunday night. Skies will be mainly sunny the next several days with no precipitation in sight.

Cold Snap This Weekend

Arctic air will continue to slump southwards behind yet another cold front moves through the Red River Valley today. We’ll see temperatures well below normal this weekend, but things should begin to rapidly warm up for the start of next week.

Friday

13°C / -1°C
Mix of sun and cloud. Chance of showers midday.
Saturday

7°C / -3°C
Cool and mainly sunny.
Sunday

12°C / 5°C
Sunny

We’ll see the busiest weather day today as a low pressure system and associated cold front sweeps through the Red River Valley, ushering in cooler Arctic air with breezy northerly winds.

12hr. QPF valid Friday evening.

Total precipitation through the day today.

An area of rain will push through the Interlake with this system while further south, just a few scattered showers will survive along the cold front as it passes through the Red River Valley. Here in Winnipeg, there’s a slight chance we’ll see a shower, but the better chance is further south and east of us, where a little additional daytime heating may help some showers develop with the frontal passage. Areas in the western half of the Red River Valley will likely see little or no rainfall today.

Winds will remain breezy through the day, with southerly winds of around 20km/h shifting to north-westerly behind the cold front and picking up to about 30km/h with gusts close to 50km/h. These north-westerly winds will usher in another shot of Arctic air giving the Red River Valley (hopefully just) one last cold snap through the weekend. Temperatures will climb to around 13°C before the cold front limits our warming and drop just below freezing tonight as winds diminish.

Saturday will bring very cool weather as Arctic air continues to infiltrate southwards. We’ll see a high of only around 7°C under mainly sunny skies and northwesterly winds of 20–30km/h, some 10+°C below normal. Temperatures will drop below zero on Saturday night as well, probably close to –3 or –4°C.

Sunday will see the warm air beginning to build back in, but we’ll only get to around 12°C under sunny skies. Overnight lows should be close to 10°C warmer than Saturday night, though, which will be welcome.

Into Next Week

Looking into next week, it seems like we’ll return to seasonal to above seasonal temperatures. The NAEFS correctly forecasted our cool down and seems to be indicating we’ll be trending upwards over the next 8–14 days. At this point it looks like we’ll return to the low-to-mid 20’s on Monday with potentially warmer weather on Tuesday.

It’s also looking like Tuesday night may bring Southern Manitoba’s first risk for nocturnal thunderstorms of the year. It’s still fairly early, but models are indicating that a low pressure system tracking through the region may develop & sustain an MCS on Tuesday night. We’ll definitely keep an eye on that system! Enjoy the sunshine this weekend and try not to forget that summer looks to arrive (for a more prolonged period, this time) next week!