Chilly Fall Weather Leads to Warm (?) Weekend

Winnipeg will see rather cool conditions mid-week gradually give way to a what may be a pleasant weekend.

Chilly fall weather arrives again in Winnipeg today behind a cold front sweeping through this morning. Northwest winds up to 30 gusting 50 km/h will usher in a cool Arctic air mass through the day. Temperatures will struggle to recover much, reaching a high this afternoon near 11 °C. The city should see a fair amount of sun today, aside from a bit of morning cloud. A few clouds will likely linger into the afternoon through some shallow convection or streaming off the lakes.

A sprawling area of high pressure will move into the province tonight and bring lows down close to the freezing mark. Skies will vary from partly cloudy to mixed and the winds will quickly ease in the evening.

10m Wind and MSLP Forecast valid 00Z Friday September 18, 2020
A sprawling high pressure system, pictured here as forecast for late Thursday afternoon, will shape Winnipeg’s weather over the coming days.

On Thursday, this slow-moving system will linger over the province and bring light winds. Winnipeg will see some morning cloud give way to afternoon sun as temperatures begin to recover with a high near 14 °C. Temperatures will dip to a low near +2 °C on Thursday night.

The high will finally begin pushing off to the east on Friday. Temperatures will continue to rebound with highs near 16 °C. A southerly wind will strengthen to 20–30 km/h in the afternoon with partly cloudy skies. With the high well to the east by Friday night, temperatures will return to a near-seasonal low around 8 °C.

Long Range Outlook

A warmer air mass will push into Manitoba this weekend with highs potentially climbing into the 20s. We say potentially, though, because there’s also a good chance that it will bring another batch of forest fire smoke from the western United States. If that smoke were to push into the region, it would likely limit temperatures to the mid-teens rather than seasonably warm low twenties. Cloudier conditions are likely on Sunday with a chance of showers late in the day and into the night.

Warmer conditions are possible well into next week, with the conditional that forest fire smoke could blanket the sky and hinder temperatures at times.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 6 °C.

Cooler, Pleasant Weekend Ahead

Winnipeg will see seasonably cool weather right through the weekend with otherwise pleasant conditions.

A ridge of high pressure will bring sunny skies to the Red River Valley as it pushes into the province today. Winds will be breezy out of the northwest again at 30 gusting 50 km/h, keeping temperatures cool. Winnipeg should see a high near 20 °C. Skies will stay mostly clear tonight as the winds ease off and temperatures dip to a low near 7 °C.

Saturday will bring a return to seasonal temperatures for Winnipeg with a high near 22 °C. Winds will stay light as they shift to the southeast for the afternoon. Skies will start off sunny, but more cloud will build into the region through the afternoon. The cloudier conditions on Thursday night will help keep temperatures slightly warmer with a low in Winnipeg near 13 °C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday September 5, 2020
On Saturday, an approaching low pressure system will bring summer heat to southern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba with highs of 25–30°C. Unfortunately, the Red River Valley won’t see any of that; it will drop southwards into the Dakotas as it approaches.

A disturbance passing through the region on Sunday will bring mainly cloudy skies to the city. Temperatures will reach a high near 20 °C, but a cold front sweeping through in the afternoon will usher in significant change. Winds will shift northwesterly at 20–30 km/h in the afternoon behind the front and usher in a much cooler air mass. Skies will stay mostly cloudy right through Sunday night as temperatures dip to a low near 8 °C.

While this system will spread rain across Manitoba on Sunday, it should stay well north of the city. Areas from west-central Manitoba southeastwards into the Pinawa region will likely see around 10 mm of rain through Sunday.

Long Range Outlook

Daytime highs will plummet well below seasonal values to start the week as highs struggle to climb over 10 °C. On Monday and Tuesday, a persistent north wind combined will produce lake-effect showers in the lee of both Lake Manitoba and Winnipeg. Winds will shift westerly on Wednesday, bringing an end to the lake-effect precipitation and gradually pushing temperatures back towards seasonal values.

Also on Monday, an upper-level disturbance will drop into the region. It will spread a broad area of showers that will likely move through the Red River Valley as well.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 21 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

Sunny and Hot Weather Ahead

An upper ridge building across the Prairies will bring sunshine and warm summer temperatures to Winnipeg this week.

The next several days will bring plenty of sun to Winnipeg with highs climbing from the mid-20s into the low 30s. Winds will be light through the first half of the week, maxing out at 15 to 25 km/h out of the south.

A warm front will push eastwards through the region Tuesday morning, bringing a few clouds and a slight chance of a shower or isolated thunderstorm. It should clear out quickly, leaving sunny skies across the region. Another chance for rain will develop on Wednesday evening as a low pressure system moves into the region. Some cloud cover will develop on Wednesday afternoon, followed by a chance of showers or thunderstorms on Wednesday night into early Thursday.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday August 18, 2020
Hot weather will move back into southern Manitoba on Tuesday.

Fortunately, the humidity should stay fairly comfortable with dew points generally in the 16 to 18 °C range.

Long Range Outlook

More showers or thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday as the low pressure system continues moving through. Behind it, northerly winds will usher seasonal temperatures back in for the weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 25°C while the seasonal overnight low is 12°C.

Summer Heat Building Back In

Temperatures in Winnipeg will begin to climb back towards the 30s over the coming days.

A weakening trough of low pressure will move through Winnipeg today, bringing mild temperatures and light south winds. With partly cloudy skies, the city should see a high near 27 °C. Skies will clear for the night with a low near 16 °C.

On Thursday, a ridge of high pressure will lie draped across southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan. This will bring mainly sunny skies to Winnipeg with light southerly winds. Temperatures will be a bit warmer with a high near 29 °C, but humidity levels should still be comfortable. Thursday night should see a low near 17 °C.

GDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid Saturday August 8, 2020
Hot summer weather will return to the Red River Valley on Friday.

Friday will be when the hot and humid weather settles back into the region. Winnipeg will see temperatures climb to a high near 32 °C and a breezy southerly wind will draw humid conditions northwards. By the end of the day, the dewpoint is forecast to reach almost 20 °C which would make for noticeably muggy conditions.

A cold front will push eastwards across the region on Friday evening into the night. It looks likely that it will support an area of showers and thunderstorms as it moves through.

Long Range Outlook

The weekend will bring more sunshine with a return to comfortable humidity levels. Both Saturday and Sunday will see high temperatures in the upper 20s.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.