A foggy start today will be the minor blip in what looks to be a beautiful second half of the week, and start to meteorological winter, as the mild weather shows no end in sight.
The forecast for the remainder of the work week is pretty straightforward: beautiful with warm and sunny weather.
This morning will be the one blip over the next few days as fog over the region gradually burns off. After that, we’ll see mainly sunny conditions over the coming days with temperatures slowly warming as a train of low pressure systems tracking across the Northern Prairies drag warmer air eastwards across the Prairies.
Winds will be calm today, however pick up through the remainder of the week. Thursday will see westerly winds around 20–30 km/h while Friday will see gusty southerlies at 30–40 km/h.
By Friday, daytime highs will be 10°C or more above seasonal values with the potential for substantial snow-melt through much of the Red River Valley.
Weekend Outlook & Beyond
The mild weather will continue into the weekend with daytime highs slightly above 0°C expected throughout much of the Red River Valley. Saturday will likely be the nicest day of the week with daytime highs of 2–4°C and some breezy westerlies. Sunday will be a bit cooler with lighter winds.
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid December 10 to 17th, 2015
Looking further ahead, the NAEFS continues to remain very confident in above normal temperatures for the region. With no indication that the Polar Jet has any plans to shift further south, out of the Northern Prairies, it seems fairly safe to go with the NAEFS forecast. Early indications are that we can expect daytime highs next week in the range of –2°C to +2°C or so with little in the way of precipitation.
Pleasant weather is on tap this week as we see a fair amount of sunshine and above-seasonal temperatures.
A low pressure system will sit just south of Manitoba early in the week
Monday
Today will see mainly sunny skies and mild temperatures. The daytime high will be just below zero with light southerly winds. A strong low pressure system will be bringing precipitation to portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota early this week, so you’ll want to check the forecast if you’re heading south.
Tuesday
Tuesday will see much the same weather as Monday. Skies are expected to remain mainly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid single digits. If the system to the south pushes a bit further north we may see more cloud cover, but that is not expected to be the case at this point. Winds will be north or north-westerly at 20 km/h.
Wednesday
Wednesday will once again feature mainly sunny skies and mild temperatures. Temperatures will be just below zero, with breezy southerly winds at 20 km/h.
Long Range
The long range forecast continues to strongly suggest above-normal weather for the first half of December. The current weather pattern over North America is very typical of El Nino, with warm conditions across the western half of Canada and an active storm track across the southern US. Expect this pattern to continue as we move further into winter.
With the 2015 Grey Cup taking center stage in Winnipeg on Sunday, one of the most pertinent questions fans heading to the game must be—or should be—wondering is what do you wear to an outdoor event, in Winnipeg, at the end of November? Fortunately, while you’ll still need to bundle up a little bit, the weather will be far more pleasant this year than it has been in many Novembers past.
Heading into the weekend, we’ll see a traditional “transition back towards milder weather” day. This means a day of it feeling quite a bit worse than the basic forecast might imply. Although temperatures will climb to around the –6°C mark today, it will do so with a fairly unpleasant southerly wind blowing down the Red River Valley, likely to around 35–45km/h with gusts up to the 60km/h mark by early this afternoon. This will make it rather unpleasant outside and hide any benefit the warmer temperatures have. It is, however, the unfortunate necessity of bringing warmer weather into the Red River Valley with an Arctic high pressure system to our south.
Saturday will bring seasonal temperatures with highs around –5°C and much lighter winds. The fairly sunny skies will make it an all-around nice day for the end of November. Temperatures will dip to about –10°C overnight.
For Grey Cup Sunday, it looks like temperatures will sit around the seasonal mark of –5 with increasing cloud cover through the day. For kickoff at 5PM, the temperature should be around –4 to –5°C with a light southerly wind of 10–15km/h. The temperature will gradually fall through the remainder of the evening, but should stay within the –5°C to –9°C range. The wind will also taper off as the evening progresses. No snow is expected at this point.
Long Range
For the coming week, conditions look very nice for Southern Manitoba.
The CPC 6-10 day temperature anomaly forecast, valid for December 5 – 18, 2015
Warmer than seasonal temperatures are expected to spread across much of southern Canada, thanks to a combination of a positive cycle in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) as well as a high over low block that is expected to develop over the west coast of North America.
The positive cycle of the AO means that there is lower than normal pressure over the northern pole, which results, generally speaking, in stronger westerly winds through the higher latitudes. This works to “bottle up” the Arctic air and make it more difficult for it to spill southwards.
The high over low block that is expected to develop over the west cost of North America serves as a powerful “block” in the weather pattern. This feature will remain stationary for several days at a minimum, and will result in benign weather over the Prairies with little precipitation as any significant weather-producing systems are deflected far north or south of our region.
This means that we should expect, in general, seasonal to above seasonal temperatures, little precipitation, and very limited duration to any colder outbreaks should they occur.
Clear skies could mean a daytime high of a degree or two warmer, while temperatures cool off more quickly in the evening. ↩
The first weekend in October is looking like a great one; plenty of sunshine will be seen over the coming few days alongside temperatures 2–3°C above normal for this time of year.
Today and tomorrow’s weather pattern will be dominated by a large ridge of high pressure anchored from northwestern Ontario into northern Quebec, whose presence will be one of the guiding impacts on the track of Hurricane Joquain. Here in Manitoba, dry outflow from the ridge will ensure skies stay clear and a polar jet stream mainly locked in the Arctic will keep the cooler weather well to our north and allow for slightly above-seasonal daytime highs[1] through the weekend.
Here in Winnipeg, we can expect mainly sunny conditions today and tomorrow with daytime highs around 16–17°C. Winds will be out of the south or southeast at 20–30km/h both days, although today will likely be a bit windier than Saturday. Overnight lows both tonight & Saturday night will sit around +3°C.
Sunday will see the pattern begin to break down a bit. The quasi-stationary ridge to our east will begin to shift off towards the east, easing the pressure gradient over the Red River Valley and finally giving us a break from the windy conditions that will have been in place for several days by that point. As things shift to east, however, cloud will begin to spill eastwards into the valley from a low pressure system that has been stalled over the western high plains for several days. This means that Winnipeg will likely see a fairly cloudy day, but daytime highs should be relatively unaffected and remain a couple degrees above normal near 15–16°C.
As we head into Sunday night, the chance for some light shower activity will increase. Very little is expected by way of significant precipitation, although at this point it appears that the slightly unsettled conditions will likely persist through Monday & Tuesday next week.
Above-Normal Temperatures To Persist
Looking ahead into the long range, it appears that the above-normal temperatures are likely to stick around.
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid for October 10 – 17, 2015
As the NAEFS 8–14 day outlook here shows, there’s a high probability of above normal temperatures throughout most of Manitoba for the period of October 10–17th, as well as for almost the entirety of the remainder of North America. The NAEFS ensemble has been persistent with this trend for quite a while now, and is what we expect to see in strong El Niño years as it often shunts the polar jet stream to the north and east, allowing warmer air to spill eastwards through the southern Prairies in a more zonal upper-level flow.
A typical generalized winter weather pattern during strong El Niño events. Credit: NOAA Climate
In El Niño years, persistent low pressure off the west coast of North America tend to produce ridging over the Rockies, drawing warmer air further to the northeast. This ridging shunts the polar jet stream further to the northeast and typically keeps the Arctic blast freezer bottled up a little more.
How strong is this El Nino now? The only real way to answer this is to throw a bunch of numbers at you. Essentially, it’s “pretty strong.”
This year’s El Niño is on track to be one of the strongest on record, which would have a high correlation of generally persistent above-normal temperatures. This doesn’t mean that cold weather isn’t possible this winter; rather it just means that any cold outbreaks will likely be shorter-lived than typical. One of the potential down-sides to this year’s event is that strong El Niño events tend to correlate with cloudier winters in the Red River Valley.
Again, all this is very generalized climate speak; the day-to-day weather can certainly vary significantly and the end result won’t just be a result of the El Niño, but also its interactions with the AO, NAO, and a few other large-scale patterns.
At the most simple level, though, it’s looking like above-normal temperatures will continue for a while yet. Perhaps the most disappointing thing at this point will be watching that “seasonal high” curve get lower and lower.
Enjoy the pleasant fall weekend!
Seasonal daytime highs for this time of year in Winnipeg are around 14°C. ↩
