Southern Manitoba has a long stretch of benign, significantly cooler than normal[1] weather ahead as a large upper-level low entrenches itself over Hudson Bay.

Monday

-16°C / -25°C

Chance of a morning flurry, otherwise mainly sunny.

Tuesday

-21°C / -25°C

Mainly Sunny

Wednesday

-15°C / -31°C

Chance of a morning flurry, then clearing.

A large storm that pushed up through the eastern United States late last week has stalled out over Hudson Bay and is all set to make things miserable for us over the next couple weeks. Temperatures won’t be quite so bad to start the week thanks to a somewhat disorganized upper-level flow over the Eastern Prairies, but things will go from “disappointing” to “cabin fever” mid -week as a pipeline of Arctic air sets up and daytime highs plummet back below -20°C.[2]

There will be a slight chance of a flurry this morning as some of the last remaining cloud clears out from the Red River Valley and then we’ll see mainly sunny skies through most of the day as the temperature climbs up to around -16°C. The wind should be a little lighter than the past few days out of the west/northwest at 20-30km/h. Temperatures will drop to around -25°C tonight under clear skies.

Tuesday will bring colder weather with a high only around -21 or -20°C under mainly sunny skies and with breezy winds at 30-40km/h out of the northwest. Temperatures will drop to around -25°C overnight with some cloud pushing into the Red River Valley as a weak low pressure system approaches from the north. We’ll see a slight chance of flurries late overnight into Wednesday morning before the cloud clears out and we’re left with mainly sunny skies. Winds will start off relatively light but increase to north/northwesterly at 30-40km/h again once the cold front passes through. Temperatures will dip down to around -31°C on Wednesday night under clear skies.

Things look to remain cold for the foreseeable future with below-normal temperatures being forecast by the NAEFS all the way to two weeks out. In addition to the cool temperatures, things should be fairly benign weather-wise with no significant storm systems in the near future. It looks like there may be a couple cm of light snow on Friday as a weak inverted trough slides across Southern Manitoba, so we’ll keep an eye on that and how things develop. No big storms on the horizon, so just bundle up and enjoy the sunshine!

It’s steady as she goes for the next few days with gradually colder weather on tap through the next few days.

Friday

-15°C / -26°C

Cloudy periods.

Saturday

-18°C / -31°C

Cloudy periods.

Sunday

-22°C / -30°C

Sunny. Cold.

We’ll see some clouds this morning but the sun will slowly gain more sky share as clouds break up through the day. We’ll head towards a high of around -15°C with notably lighter winds than yesterday. Tonight will bring partly cloudy skies and a low near -26°C.

We’ll again see some cloudy periods tomorrow, but it looks like overall we’ll see more sun than Friday. Highs will be near -18°C and the overnight low will plummet under clear skies and an incoming Arctic ridge to just under the -30°C mark. Sunday looks to bring sunny skies and cold temperatures with a high only around -22°C. We’ll drop back to -30°C on Sunday night.

No significant pattern changes are in store over the next week, so the cold and relatively quiet weather is going to continue to stick around for a while.

Those looking for a balmy reprieve from winter are going to have to look into buying plane tickets because there is no end in sight to the below-normal temperatures that have settled in over the region. A very stable pattern has developed which anchors us into a north/northwesterly flow and will continue to tap cold Arctic air and funnel it southwards over the Prairies.

Friday

-18°C / -25°C

Mixed skies.

Saturday

-18°C / -27°C

A few clouds.

Sunday

-17°C / -25°C

A few clouds.

Quiet Weather Ahead

A very quiet few days are ahead of us with little in the way of active weather on tap. A weak cold front is pushing southwards through the province today, and while it’s possible some snow happens, if it were to it wouldn’t really amount to more than a few flakes and definitely wouldn’t accumulate to anything. Here in Winnipeg and areas south the best chance for that is overnight, but it’s so minimal that I don’t really feel it bears any more mention than.

After that, there’s no snow expected through the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures will generally sit around -18°C for highs and -25°C for lows with variations a couple degrees off those points. Winds are also expected to be light with nothing climbing over 20-25km/h through the next few days.

Cold Weather Here to Stay

While it’s not nearly as cold as it was through December or many parts of this month, our temperatures are still noticeably below the “seasonal”[1] -11°C for this time of year. Thanks to that persistent northerly flow thanks to a complex of lows anchored over Hudson Bay, it doesn’t look like much change is in sight.

The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) continues to forecast below-normal temperatures in the 1-2 week timeframe; unfortunately for us, this outlook tends to be fairly accurate most of the time. At this rate, it means that we’ll see little hope for improvement at least until the middle of February.

So, do what Winnipegers are great at doing: make lemonade. Enjoy the fact there won’t be much wind, bundle up and get out there!