Tag: Benign Weather

Warmer Weather Returns to Southern Manitoba

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A warmer air mass will gradually push into southern Manitoba this week with highs back in the upper 20s for the second half of the week.

ECMWF 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Thursday August 31, 2023
Warmer weather will continue to build into southern Manitoba on Thursday with temperatures approaching the 30 °C mark.

An upper ridge building into the eastern Prairies will bring seasonably warm temperatures back to the region. Before that happens, though, there will be one more day of seasonal warmth in Winnipeg as a disturbance passes by. It will bring mixed skies to the region today with highs climbing into the mid-20s. Winds won’t be much of an issue either, climbing into the 20–30 km/h range out of the south.

Smoke will be a bit of an issue this morning, but air quality should improve as the day progresses.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with a low temperature around 10 °C.

On Wednesday, the heat will begin to push into the region as a warm front edges into the region. Winnipeg should see a high in mid- to upper-20s with sunny skies. Winds won’t be too much of an issue, again climbing into the 20–30 km/h range out of the south. The region will see clear skies on Wednesday night with a low in the mid-teens.

On Thursday, a low pressure complex will begin lifting through Saskatchewan and the Dakotas towards the province. Highs will likely be a couple degrees warmer than Wednesday with cloud working into the region for the afternoon. The wind will be a lot more noticeable on Thursday, picking up out of the south into the 40 gusting 60 km/h range. This system will bring some showers or thunderstorms to western Manitoba in the morning. Those showers will lift to the north, then instability will build eastwards through the day.

By late-afternoon, a risk of thunderstorms will develop over the Red River Valley and areas east. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms; with 500–1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40–50 knots of bulk shear, any thunderstorms that develop would likely become fairly well organized with a primary threat of damaging hail and wind gusts. The risk of thunderstorms will continue into the evening, gradually shifting eastwards as the night goes on.

Long Range Outlook

Settled conditions will return to southern Manitoba on Friday with highs again in the upper 20s. On the weekend, even more heat will build into the region with daytime highs climbing into the low 30s. It’s a bit unclear how humid it will be, but there is a chance that it could be rather uncomfortable.

A cold front is expected to sweep through the region and bring more seasonal temperatures back to the region to start the new week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.

Pleasant Summer Weekend Ahead

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An area of high pressure building into Manitoba will bring pleasant summer conditions to southern Manitoba this weekend with a low chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two.

RDPS 500mb Height and Wind Speed Forecast valid 21Z Sunday July 30, 2023
An upper ridge will begin to develop over the Prairies by the end of the weekend, spreading warm weather through the region.

To end the work week in Winnipeg and area, northerly winds behind a cold front will bring seasonably cool temperatures to the area. With gradually clearing skies, temperatures will climb to a high around the 20 °C mark this afternoon. Those northerly winds will ease from around 20 km/h today to light this evening, followed by temperatures dipping to a low near 10 °C.

On Saturday, warmer weather will return to the region with highs back into the mid-20s. Some cloud will develop in the afternoon as a weak upper trough swings across the region; some showers will be possible on Saturday night as it moves through. Winds will be light on Saturday night as an area of high pressure moves in. Temperatures will dip down to the low teens overnight.

On Sunday, warm weather returns with highs climbing back into the upper 20s under sunny skies. A few locations may even see temperatures reach the low 30s. Humidity won’t be an issue, making for a great day to enjoy some time outside.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will kick off with another beautiful day on Monday; daytime highs will again sit in the upper 20s under partly cloudy skies. More humidity arrives Monday night, though, and with it will come variable cloudiness and the chance of showers or thunderstorms. Unsettled conditions are possible, particularly in the late overnight or early morning through mid-week, then more settled conditions should return for the end of the week as the humidity across the region eases.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Warm Summer Weather Ahead, But Smokier Conditions This Weekend

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Winnipeg will see warm summer temperatures over the next few days with plenty of sunshine for the weekend, but wildfire smoke will make a reappearance.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday July 22, 2023
Warm temperatures will continue across southern Manitoba this weekend with highs in the upper 20s.

Back from vacation, and I’m glad to say our first forecast back is a nice one. Over the next few days, the upper-level pattern over the Prairies will stay relatively stagnant. An upper ridge over the western Prairies will slowly build and nudge eastwards while a few disturbances rotate through central and northern Manitoba.

In Winnipeg, this will mean that temperatures will be fairly consistent in the days ahead; highs should sit in the upper 20s while overnight lows dip to the mid- to upper teens.

There will be plenty of sunshine in the city in the days ahead too. Today will bring some cloudy periods; there’s a small chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm this morning as a shortwave moves through the area, and then again late in the day as a weak upper trough approaches from the northwest. 

Heading into the weekend, conditions will settle with sunny to mixed skies. Winds will be generally light, but Saturday could bring northwesterlies into the 20 to 30 km/h range.

The big question for the coming days will be just how much smoke the city will see with this weather pattern. Satellite pictures last night showed a decent plume of smoke to the northwest, corroborated by reports of poor visibility in The Pas and Flin Flon through the day. That smoke will gradually shift towards southern Manitoba. It shouldn’t be too bad today, but we’ll likely see smokier conditions develop at some point on Saturday and persist into Sunday.

Long Range Outlook

To start off next week, the upper ridge will build eastwards into Manitoba and bring more heat to the region. Temperatures will climb into the low 30s with dew points heading towards the 20 °C mark. This will make for a rather hot and humid first half of the week with Humidex values reaching into the upper 30s. Some unsettled weather is possible mid-week with near-seasonal temperatures returning to end the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Cold Front Brings Relief From Hot and Humid Weather

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A cold front passing out of the province today will usher a cooler and drier air mass into southern Manitoba. This will bring a welcome break from the hot and humid early-June weather the region has seen, along with more settled conditions.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday June 10, 2023
On Saturday, a high pressure centre moving in from the north will bring cooler daytime highs in the low 20s to southern Manitoba.

A cold front will sweep through southern Manitoba this morning, bringing some cloud, a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms, and a breezy northerly wind. In Winnipeg, any chance for rain should end by midday, leaving dry conditions and a high in the mid-20s. Unfortunately, the city won’t see clear skies in the afternoon; behind the cold front, smoke from the northern Prairie forest fires will push into the region. It may end up being fairly noticeable for a few hours after the passage of the cold front, otherwise it should mainly appear as haze and not have too significant an impact on air quality. The winds will ease in the evening, then temperatures will head to an overnight low in the low teens, the coolest in a while.

Through the weekend, a large area of high pressure will settle into the region. Saturday and Sunday won’t bring cloud to the region, rather it will largely just be a question of how much smoke lingers over the region. Temperatures will be cool on Saturday with a high in the low 20s and a low near 10 °C. Temperatures will begin to warm on Sunday with a high back in the mid-20s and a low in the mid-teens.

Long Range Outlook

To start next week, daytime highs will once again climb back to around 30 °C. The humidity levels will stay much lower and keep the heat a bit more comfortable than last week. By mid-week, conditions could turn unsettled again and bring the chance of showers or thunderstorms to the region for several days.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.