Tag: Snow

Elsewhere in Weather News: March 29th, 2014

Matthieu Leave a comment

Atlantic Storm Slams Canadian Maritimes

This past week a strong Nor’easter affected the Canadian Maritimes which brought large amounts of snow as well as record-breaking wind gusts. The dynamic system that started off as a weak low off Florida’s east coast and quickly deepened, over 40mb in 24 hours, over the Gulf Stream. By the time the low had traveled up the East Coast and reached the Canadian Maritimes, it had peaked in strength at 955mb. Although this system, a cold low, was much different dynamically than a hurricane, it brought extreme wind gusts of category 3 strength; 186km/h gust in Wreckhouse, NL (breaking the old record of 180km/h). Widespread 100km/h gusts were reported across both Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Impressive picture of the Nor'easter just before the storm reached maximum intensity. (Source: NOAA)
Impressive picture of the Nor’easter before the storm reached maximum intensity. (Source: NOAA)

The forecast proved to be a tough one, especially along Nova Scotia’s coast, where warm air coming off the Atlantic Ocean had an impact on the snow amounts. Widespread amounts of 40cm were reported in both Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Halifax’s snowfall total, which was affected by the warm air coming off the Atlantic, only received 21cm. The highest total out of all the major Maritime cities was Charlottetown, PEI, which reported an incredible 53cm from the storm and experienced snowfall rates as high as 10cm per hour. Unsurprisingly, about 20,000 people were out of power at some point in the Maritimes and most flights in Halifax were cancelled on Wednesday. The Confederation Bridge connecting PEI to the mainland was also closed, due to the strong winds.

Only to add salt to the wound, the Maritimes are expecting another messy weather system to affect the region Sunday night into Monday. It will bring a mixed bag of precipitation to the region, depending on proximity to the Atlantic Coast; rain and freezing rain can be expected near the coast such as in Halifax. Further inland into New Brunswick, ice pellets/freezing rain transitioning to heavy snow will fall. The precipitation amounts will not be as high as the previous system, but nonetheless significant, as models are snowing that conservatively 15cm could fall in the snowfall region and 20mm of rain near the coast.

March Woes Continue

Brad Leave a comment

There aren’t too many positive things one can say about this March so far. It’s been cold, it’s been snowy, and there’s still a week of it left. Unfortunately for us, this March will end just as it started – like a lion.

Monday will see more cold weather in southern Manitoba
Monday will see more cold weather in southern Manitoba

Monday

Monday
-10°C / -24°C
Increasing Cloudiness. Chance of Flurries.

Today will see the continuation of well below normal weather. This morning’s lows were more akin to January than March and today’s highs will be similar to the normal lows for this time of year. That is to say we’ll see highs near the -10C mark, with this morning’s lows having been in the -20s. If the cold wasn’t bad enough, we may even see a bit of snow along a cold front today – just what you were hoping for I’m sure. This cold front will usher in some gusty north-west winds too, so any snow that does fall will be sure to blow around a bit.

Tuesday

Tuesday
-11°C / -20°C
Mainly Sunny

Tuesday will be similar Monday temperature-wise with temperatures once again well below normal. It will be a bit less windy than Monday however, with little threat for snow, which will make it slightly nicer day overall.

Wednesday

Wednesday
-6°C / -10°C
Flurries possible

Wednesday looks to be one of the warmest days this week, with highs in the mid single digits. This warmer air will be brought north by a low pressure system passing to our south. This low pressure system may even bring some snow to southern Manitoba, but it’s too early to say.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to look abominable. Long range models continue to strongly suggest that below-normal weather will last at least through the end of March. At this point we can only hope that April will see some improvement.

Cooler Weather Returns

Brad Leave a comment

After a roller-coaster ride for our temperatures over the past week, cooler weather will settle in over the Red River Valley for the weekend. Temperatures will be around 10°C below normal over the next couple days before warmer & unsettled weather begins to push in by the end of the weekend.

Friday
⇒ -12°C / -23°C
Mixed skies. Winds tapering off this afternoon.

Saturday
-14°C / -23°C
Mainly sunny.

Sunday
-7°C / -12°C
Increasing cloudiness with a chance of snow late day.

Cool, Sunny Start

A ridge of high pressure will build into the Red River Valley through the day today, tapering off the northerly winds and bringing with it cooler air from Northern Manitoba. As temperatures remain steady near -12°C, strong northerly winds at 30-40km/h will diminish to 15-20km/h by the afternoon. Skies will remain mixed through most of the day thanks to some lingering instability behind the cold front that pushed through overnight.

Temperatures will drop to around -23°C tonight as the clouds mostly clear out. Winds will be light out of the north.

Tomorrow looks very similar to today; temperatures may climb a degree or two higher under a partly cloudy sky, but we’ll still be a good 10°C below normal for this time of year. Saturday night’s temperatures will be similar to tonight’s.

Warmer, Unsettled Weather Returning

An update on Sunday’s system is available in the comments below. Click here to jump to it.
Expected snowfall accumulations through Sunday night.
Update: Expected snowfall accumulations through Sunday night.

Sunday will bring warmer weather as milder air begins pushing eastwards thanks to another low pressure system set to track from northern Alberta through southwest Manitoba. Temperatures will climb to around -7°C with increasing cloudiness and moderate southerly winds to 30-40km/h. There will be a chance for some light snow here in Winnipeg through the evening and overnight period; amounts are still quite unclear, but it seems likely to be no more than a few centimetres. Cloudy skies will continue through Sunday night as temperatures drop to about -12°C.

Through the beginning of next week it looks like we’ll be returning towards seasonal temperatures[1] with mainly cloudy skies. It looks like there will be multiple chances for snow next week, but at the moment none of them look like significant snowfalls of any sort.

  1. Seasonal temperatures for mid-march are around -2°C.  ↩

Windy, Unsettled Weather Marks Pattern Shift

Brad Leave a comment

Windier, snowier weather is on the way for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley, marking the start of a large-scale pattern shift which will bring the latest – and hopefully last – deep freeze to an end and allow more seasonal weather and temperatures to take hold.

Wednesday
-9°C / ⇑ -6°C
Windy & cloudy. Blowing snow possible. Snow in the afternoon.

Thursday
-1°C ⇓ / -18°C
Snow ending midday; breezy with temperatures falling in the afternoon.

Friday
-12°C / -20 to -25°C
Mainly sunny.

A Windy, Snowy Shift

Warmer air trying to build its way into the Red River Valley will result in increasing southerly winds today. By early this afternoon, winds will be quite strong out of the south at 40-50km/h with gusts as high as 70km/h. These strong winds – coupled with a fairly deep boundary layer – will likely produce fairly widespread blowing snow in the Red River Valley. It’s severity may be limited by relatively mild temperatures, however it’s best that anyone travelling on area highways be prepared for poor driving conditions.

Warmer air at 850mb (denoted by the yellow/red colours) will be pushing northeastwards over the next 24 hours.
Warmer air at 850mb (denoted by the yellow/red colours) will be pushing northeastwards over the next 24 hours.

By late in the afternoon, the upper-level portion of the warm front will be approaching the Manitoba border. A strengthening jet[1] overriding the 850mb baroclinic zone will provide a fair amount of isentropic lift. As the jet intensifies, as will the area of light snow pushing into Parkland Manitoba this morning. It will progress eastwards through the day and push through the Interlake and Red River Valley mid-to-late this afternoon.

It seems likely that Winnipeg will see around 2cm of snow that falls as a fairly intense, but short, burst. Areas south of the city will be more hit and miss as to whether or not snow falls. The safe thing to say is that you’re more and more likely to see snow the further north you are in the valley.

By evening our temperature will climb up to our daytime high of about -9°C. Overnight will bring the continued chance for flurries/light snow while winds diminish somewhat and temperatures continue to rise to around -7 or -6°C here in Winnipeg.

Expected storm-total snowfall by Friday morning. Snow will fall in 3 main batches.
Expected storm-total snowfall by Friday morning. Snow will fall in 3 main batches.

Thursday looks to bring more snow to Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as a clipper system races along the Canada-US border. Snow will move in fairly early in the day, spreading eastwards along the Trans-Canada corridor into Winnipeg, and end early in the afternoon. In total, around 5cm is likely to fall through the morning hours – with a little less to the south of Winnipeg – while accompanied by breezy winds out of the south at around 30km/h. Winds will become gusty out of the NW at 30-50km/h in the afternoon as the system tracks off to our east.

Temperatures will climb to a positively balmy -2 or -1°C by midday before the northwesterlies begin drawing in cooler air.

Flurries & Cooler

Thursday night will bring a good chance of seeing some flurry activity as another ridge of high pressure builds in from the NW and some favourable snow-making air slides southeastwards through the region. Any accumulations would amount to only a couple cm at most, and through the night the clouds will break up and we’ll be left with partly cloudy skies by Friday morning.

Friday itself will bring cooler temperatures with a high of only around -12°C and light winds. Some cloud cover Friday night will help temperatures from dipping too much, with overnight lows dipping just below -20°C.

Spring Ahead?

Hope finally lies in the long-range models. Almost all are showing a high probability of a return to seasonal temperatures[2] within the next 2 weeks. No significant cold snaps are in the foreseeable future, and with the sun getting stronger and stronger and the days getting longer and longer, it doesn’t seem likely that we’ll see any more brutal cold snaps for the miserable winter of 2013-2014.

Don’t forget that this coming Sunday, March 9th at 2:00AM we get to do that wonderful[3] tradition of changing our clocks! We spring forward an hour, so it’ll be time to cash in that extra hour you banked way back in the fall!

  1. A “jet” is a narrow ribbon of strong winds aloft.  ↩
  2. Which will be for daytime highs near -3°C and overnight lows near -13°C.  ↩
  3. Awful.  ↩