Tag: Unsettled

Slowly Improving Weather in Store

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The weather will slowly improve over the next couple days as some warm air begins to slowly push across the Prairies.

3hr. Cumulative Precipitation for late this afternoon

3hr. cumulative precipitation from the RDPS for late this afternoon.

Today will remain mostly cloudy across Southern Manitoba with two main features to pay attention to. The first feature is a low pressure system that will slide from Southern Saskatchewan into North Dakota, bringing with it a chance of showers through southwest Manitoba through the morning and into the early afternoon. The second feature will be a trough slumping southwards through the Interlake into the Whiteshell. The southern extent of this trough will move through the Red River Valley in the late afternoon and evening, and as it enters the area, a few scattered convective showers or flurries will develop along it and move through the region. Whether we see rain or snow will depend on the exact timing of the system and what the temperature is; either way, accumulations will fairly insignificant and the showers likely won’t be widespread. Daytime highs will be around 6°C this afternoon.

After these systems pass, we’ll see skies slowly clear out overnight as temperatures drop to around the -3°C mark. A ridge of high pressure begins working it’s way into Manitoba; skies will remain mainly sunny as temperatures slowly climb. Tomorrow we should see daytime highs around 9°C through the Red River Valley, and increasing up to around 11°C for Friday. We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds on Friday as a weak system brings some cloud through the Red River Valley as it passes through central Manitoba.

The weekend looks relatively average, with no indications so far that any significant precipitation events are in store for us over the next week.

Stormier Weather Set To Return

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Southern Manitoba will be under an increasing risk of thunderstorms as the week progresses. Heat and humidity will slowly build back into the region as a deep upper trough begins to build over the Rocky Mountains before tracking eastwards across the Prairies later in the week.

GEM-REG 6-hour Precipitation for Thursday Afternoon

6-hour accumulated precipitation through Wednesday afternoon from the GEM-REG model.

We’ll see warmer temperatures today as warmer air pushes in behind a warm front that passed through overnight. Daytime highs should be near the 25°C mark through most of the RRV. By this afternoon a weak frontal wave will be positioned near the international border with a trough extending NW to a low pressure system tracking into Western Manitoba. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over SW Manitoba early this afternoon and slowly develop northeastwards into the Red River Valley. It will mainly be regions through the northern Red River Valley that face the risk for showers or thunderstorms (Portage la Prairie, Winnipeg, Selkirk; as seen in the image above). The showers and thunderstorms will lift northwards into the Interlake overnight while overnight lows drop to the mid-teens over most of Southern Manitoba.

12 hour accumulated precipitation through Thursday

12 hour accumulated precipitation through Thursday from the GFS model.

Opinions differ for Thursday, however it’s generally expected that a north-south band of showers with a chance of an embedded thunderstorm will develop over the Red River Valley or the Whiteshell in the afternoon. This line will slowly move eastwards and intensify into a band of thunderstorms. Again, there’s still quite a bit of uncertainty to where this line will develop, and the potential exists for fairly large (close to 1”) rainfall accumulations. We’ll be keeping close track of this system’s development.

Friday looks to be a fairly nice day with comfortable humdity and daytime highs in the mid-20’s. A large MCS is forecast to develop on Friday night in North Dakota, bringing the chance for a stormy and rainy Saturday. We’ll take a closer look at that system later this week.

Showers and Unsettled Weather

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Showers will be the story of the day in Winnipeg as an upper trough swings into the RRV today. A band of showers will push in this morning and entrench itself as a low pressure system pushing northwards out of the United States reinforces the area of rain parked over the Red River Valley.

An upper low has pushed into Alberta, drenching the province in rain and snow, with some areas expecting 30-40mm of rain while some regions in the Foothills are getting 10-20cm of snow. For us here in Manitoba, a band of rain running along a line from Dauphin to Grenta to Grand Forks will push over the entirety of the Red River Valley and stall out. In Winnipeg, we’ll get up to around 10°C today with a blustery southeast wind. Showers will slowly weaken in the afternoon before reintensifying as a low pressure system lifts northwards out of North Dakota in the evening. Precipitation will blossom as the entire system spins up and strengthens with cooler air beginning to slump southwards across the Prairies on the backside of the main surface low.

Accumulated QPF valid Saturday Evening

Total accumulated precipitaiton from the GEM-REG model valid from 00Z today through 00Z Sun 15 April (Saturday evening). This image is what the GEM-REG model believes the 2-day rainfall totals will be.

The showers will clear out from Winnipeg on Saturday morning leaving us with a mix of sun and cloud and a daytime high around 12°C. Things cloud up again on Saturday evening as band of scattered showers pushes southwards along the cold front. We’ll be left with sunny skies on Sunday with a high near 10°C.

Total rainfall through the next few days will vary depending on exactly how much convection ends up embedded within the rain, and we’ll only be able to tell that as things develop. In general, though, the following are the expected amounts:

  • Winnipeg: 10-15mm
  • Altona: 10-20mm
  • Emerson: 10-20mm
  • Morris: 10-15mm
  • Steinbach: 10-15mm
  • Winkler: 15-25mm

Areas in Southwestern Manitoba, including Brandon, Pilot Mound, Melita and Virden will see greater amounts than locations in the RRV, with general accumulations around 1”. As usual, we’ll have updates in the comments below!

Continuing Unsettled Weather

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Southern Manitoba will continue to see unsettled weather through the weekend with system after system tracking through our region. Despite this, temperatures will remain above normal, contiuning this month’s summer-like trend.

We’ll start off with clear skies this morning with patchy fog through the Red River Valley which will burn off by mid-to-late morning as that late-March sun gets to work. We’ll see our temperature get up to 12 or 13°C before skies cloud over mid-to-late afternoon. Most areas in the Red River Valley, including Winnipeg, will then have a chance of seeing some showers as a weak warm front pushes eastwards through the area.

GEM-REG Precipitation for Friday Night

GEM-REG Accumulated Precipitation for Friday night.

Overnight, much of the Red River Valley has a decent chance to see rain as the mid-levels destabilize with an injection of cold air at 700mb associated with a shortwave tracking through Central Manitoba. Positioning of the shortwave will be crucial to where the precipitation falls, but current indications are that an area of rain will blossom overnight near Brandon and travel east, with lighter showers south of the Trans-Canada Highway and 4-8mm of rain along and north of the TCH.

That rain will clear out by midday Saturday, and the Red River Valley will be left with just a few clouds and beautiful temperatures around 15°C.

24-Hour Precipitation Accumulation Monday Evening to Tuesday Evening

24-Hour Precipitation Accumulation from Monday evening to Tuesday Evening

It was not mean to last, however, as yet another low begins it’s trek into the Prairies. Winnipeg will get to 11 or 12°C before more clouds push in by mid-afternoon. Light rain will push into the Red River Valley overnight Sunday and then intensify Monday morning, dropping another 5-10mm of rain before it pulls out on Monday evening.

All of these systems are sensitive to exact tracks of subtle features, so we’ll be sure to provide updates in the comments as the weekend progresses. In short, for much of the Red River Valley, the next few days will be unsettled with pleasant temperatures in the low-to-mid teens when the sun manages to poke out and showers/rain every 24-36 hours.