Tag: Windy

Will Our First Snowfall of the Year Come This Week?

Scott Leave a comment

Will our first snowfall of the year come this week? That is the question that meteorologists are trying to answer as a complex weather system potentially brings accumulating snowfall to southern Manitoba tonight.

An inverted trough pattern associated with a strong system to our south may help bring snowfall to southern Manitoba
An inverted trough pattern associated with a strong system to our south may help bring snowfall to southern Manitoba

This Week

Today will start out cloudy and cool with temperatures hovering near the freezing mark. Change is coming, however, as a strong weather system moves off the mountains and begins to produce snow over the northern United States and southern Prairies. This is a complex system, with the strongest part well to our south over the midwestern US. A secondary part of this system will move across the southern Prairies and likely produce accumulating snowfall along part of its track. At this point it appears probable that snow will begin to develop over southern Manitoba on Monday night as moisture and lift begins to push into the region. The question is whether conditions will come together just right to produce significant snow over all of southern Manitoba, or whether the system will only begin to produce significant snow as it pushes into northwestern Ontario.

Weather model simulations generally begin to produce light snow over western Manitoba late on Monday afternoon, before the snowfall intensifies as it moves into the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba. This would likely result in 1-4 cm of snow over western Manitoba, 4-8 cm over the Red River Valley, and 5-10 cm over southeastern Manitoba. However, an alternative solution would have only minor snowfall (if any) over western Manitoba and the Red River Valley, with slight accumulations of 2-4 cm over southeastern Manitoba. The former solution is most favoured at this time, with about 5 cm expected in the Winnipeg region, with slightly higher amounts to the east and slightly lower amounts to the west. The most likely outcome may change as the system develops today, therefore you should stay tuned for more details.

A map of the currently favoured snowfall outcome is shown below, showing the probability of at least 5 cm of snow; note that Winnipeg has a 70% chance of receiving at least 5 cm. Some blowing snow is possible, due to southeasterly winds of 30 km/h gusting to 50 km/h today, however blizzard conditions are definitely not expected. Winds will taper off by Tuesday, alleviating any blowing snow that does develop. The first major snowfall of the year is always one of the most challenging as drivers adapt to the changing conditions. Regardless of whether it snows tonight, this is probably a sign that you should get those winter tires on if you haven’t already!

Probability of at least 5 cm of snow according to the NAEFS (ensemble)
Probability of at least 5 cm of snow according to the NAEFS (ensemble)

Snow will taper off on Tuesday morning, should it materialize in the first place, leaving Tuesday with cloudy and cool conditions. Temperatures will once again sit near the freezing mark under mainly cloudy skies. The odd flurry is possible during the day, but generally quiet weather is expected. Winds will be light from the west.

A quiet weather day is expected on Wednesday as well, with mainly cloudy skies and just a lingering chance of flurries. Temperatures are likely to be around or just above zero. Winds will be northwesterly at 20-30 km/h.

Long Range

The long range outlook will be partly shaped by how much snow falls this week. If we manage to avoid major snow, it is likely that the remainder of November will remain generally warmer than normal. Because a blanket of snow on the ground reflects most of the incoming sunlight, it is more difficult for us to heat up during the day. The longer we avoid snow the longer we’re able to keep that darker, exposed soil which helps to absorb the limited sunlight that we do receive at this time of year. Should we receive significant snow with this upcoming system, we’ll likely see normal conditions through month’s end. Regardless of how much snow falls this week, this November is likely to end up as one of the warmest, if not the warmest, Novembers on record in Winnipeg.

Coldest Weather So Far This Season Arrives In Big Pattern Shift

Brad 1 Comment

An increasingly active storm track will bring a major winter storm through the Northern Plains of the U.S., drawing colder arctic air southwards cross the Prairies and ushering in the coldest temperatures seen so far in the fall of 2016.

Today will start with a weak system pushing through the Red River Valley, bringing with it a band of showers that will lift northeastwards across the region through the first half of the morning. After that moves through, we’ll be left with fairly cloudy skies as temperatures climb to a high near 9°C. Winds will pick up out of the southeast this morning to around 20-30 km/h, then taper off for the afternoon. Expect the winds to pick back up out of the northwest later in the evening with a slight chance of some very light rain showers or snow flurries overnight as a cold front moves through and temperatures dip down to the 0°C mark.

Thursday will bring mainly cloudy skies as a Colorado Low strengthens south of the border. Winds will be breezy out of the north to northwest at around 20-30 km/h and temperatures will climb to a high of about 3°C.

This history of forecast precipitation for Friday's Colorado Low shows how the GDPS model has developed consistency only in the last day and a half.
This history of forecast precipitation for Friday’s Colorado Low shows how the GDPS model has developed consistency only in the last day and a half.

Since last weekend, it’s been quite clear that a major winter storm was possible on Friday, and that much it got right. However, what at one point looked like a major blizzard for the Red River Valley has since turned into a moderate-strength winter storm for the Dakotas and Minnesota into Wisconsin. There’s a whole discussion on long-range model forecasts, but we’ll leave it at this: while it may get the general pattern right, don’t trust it on the details.

So what will we see instead of a blizzard? Cloudy skies and a stiff north wind likely at 40 gusting to 60 km/h. The southeastern portion of the province may get clipped with some snow from this system, but here in the Red River Valley, the system snow should miss us. There may, however, be a sneak attack from the north as cooler air surges southwards and lake-effect snow fires up over the lakes. Areas in the lee of the lakes may see some light to moderate snow flurries, however these will occur in fairly narrow strips and be highly dependent on the wind direction.

Temperatures will climb to only -1 or 0°C for a high. Expect the cloud and potential lake-effect snow to continue overnight as temperatures fall to a low near -4°C.

Long Range

The weekend looks cool with a continued chance for lake-effect snow through the day on Saturday. Cloud cover will be a mixed bag and highs will be near 0°C with lows near -6°C or so. If we get completely clear skies one night, then temperatures could plummet quite severely, though, so an overnight low below -10°C may be possible if the cloud manages to be scoured out of the Valley.

Warmer & Unsettled Conditions Ahead

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Winnipeg will finally break out of the 6°C lock that we’ve had on daytime highs for the past few days and see daytime highs return closer to seasonal values of 9°C. That warmer weather will, unfortunately, also come with increasingly unsettled conditions, with multiple chances for rain in the coming days. This weekend has Winnipeg host to the 2016 Tim Horton’s Heritage Classic; will the games thread the rain needle or will attendees need to bring an umbrella? Read on to find out!

Warmer temperatures will finally make an appearance in Winnipeg today as milder air is carried eastwards by a trough of low pressure pushing eastwards across the Prairies. Before we get to them, however, windy and wet conditions will move through first.

Winds will pick up out of the south to 30-40 km/h this morning, with showers developing over Western Manitoba and pushing into the Red River Valley late this morning. The showers will taper off early- to mid-afternoon with winds tapering off. Temperatures will climb up to around 10°C by late this afternoon.

Expect mainly clear skies overnight as temperatures drop down to a low near 2°C. Its possible that some fog patches or stratus cloud forms early Saturday morning.

Saturday brings the first game of the Heritage Classic, set to start at 3:00PM. Assuming skies stay clear tonight, then Saturday should bring increasing cloud through the late morning into the early afternoon. By game start, skies will be mostly cloudy with a temperature near 10°C. Rain will start pushing into the province through the afternoon, but it should remain west of the Red River Valley until around 6-7PM.

Forecast rainfall amounts from the GDPS have about 5-15mm total rainfall across Southern Manitoba shared between the Friday & Saturday night events.
Forecast rainfall amounts from the GDPS have about 5-15mm total rainfall across Southern Manitoba shared between the Friday & Saturday night events.

Saturday night will bring periods of rain and a low near 4°C. Rainfall totals of 2-5mm seem likely by Sunday morning.

Sunday will continue with seasonal highs and clearing skies. There may be a few lingering showers early in the morning, but they should taper off quickly, leaving a fairly pleasant day with the sun breaking through in the afternoon and a high near 8 or 9°C. Winds will pick up out of the northwest to 20-30 km/h for the afternoon. While it will be a bit cooler than Saturday, overall it will be relatively pleasant conditions for the second Heritage Classic game, which starts at 2:00PM.

Sunday night should bring mainly clear skies, light winds, and a low near 0°C.

Long Range

The start of next week currently looks like it will bring seasonal temperatures and variable cloudiness. Conditions may become a little more unsettled through the latter half of the week, but at least it appears that any precipitation we may see will be rain instead of the alternative!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 8°C while the seasonal overnight low is -2°C.

Cloudy & Cool Days Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg will be stuck in a fairly cloudy and cool second half to the work week as a broad upper-level trough remains entrenched over the region.

Cool & Relatively Dreary

While this morning may bring a few smiles with some sunshine, more cloud will quickly be moving back into Winnipeg, turning skies grey and leaving cool, fall-like weather in the wake. By early this afternoon, skies should be completely clouded up once again with temperatures topping out near 6°C. Winds will be out of the west-northwest at around 20-25 km/h with some gusts in the 30-40 km/h range.

Skies will remain fairly cloudy overnight with northwesterly winds continuing and temperatures dipping down to around 1°C.

Thursday morning will bring more cloudy skies with a slight chance of some shower or flurry activity as a weak band of lake-effect precipitation moves off of Lake Manitoba. It should dissipate by midday, and we’ll be left with cloudy skies that gradually begin to break up late in the afternoon, calm winds, and a high near 7°C.

Thursday night will bring a low once again near 1°C under partly cloudy skies.

Showers Possible Friday

A warm front moving across the Prairies on Friday will bring the chance of showers to the region alongside a shift to a warmer weather pattern.

A warm front will push eastwards across the Red River Valley on Friday.
A warm front will push eastwards across the Red River Valley on Friday.

By midday the chance for showers move into Winnipeg with winds picking up out of the south to 30-40 km/h. It doesn’t look like rainfall totals will be much to speak of (less than 2mm), but there may be just enough to make the ground wet.

The warmest air will remain to our south, however, so daytime highs will sit near 9°C. Friday night will bring a low near 2°C under partly cloudy skies.

Long Range

The weekend is looking slightly warmer with highs near 10°C and overnight lows continuing in the 1-2°C range. Skies will likely be mixed through the weekend and there may be another chance for some light shower activity on Saturday afternoon.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 9°C while the seasonal overnight low is -2°C.