After a cool night, temperatures will rebound nicely today before more unsettled weather pushes into the province tonight and lingers through mid-week.

Temperatures today will work their way to 20°C today with increasing cloud. The first of several impulses forecast to track across Southern Manitoba will push a warm front across the Red River Valley late this afternoon, bringing with it a good chance of showers
through regions along the Trans-Canada highway and northwards into the Interlake. Regions in the southern half of the Red River Valley will see just a chance of showers through the afternoon and evening today.

Tomorrow, a low pressure system will push into North Dakota, strengthening a warm front draped across the region. Southern Manitoba will stay north of the warm front, keeping daytime highs in the 20-23°C range. Strong capping will restrict surface-based thunderstorms to Central/Southern North Dakota where a cold front advancing across the Plains will help trigger storms later in the day. For us, however, we’ll be in great placement for the development of nocturnal convection. A strong 30-40kt low-level jet overriding the warm front will pump fairly moist air northwards; dewpoints at 850mb over Southern Manitoba are expected to rise to the mid-teens. Combined with negative lifted indicies, CAPE values are expected to climb to nearly 1500J/kg.

This will likely result in the development of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday evening, developing somewhere over Southern Manitoba and pushing northeastwards through the night. Nocturnal convection is always a very tricky thing to forecast, so we’ll definitely keep a close eye on things and provide updates in the comments as we get closer.

The upper low associated with this system will push across the Prairies through the week, bringing a mix of sun and clouds and some unsettled weather and more chances of showers.