More Showers Than Thought?

A few systems are expected to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to Southern Manitoba over the next few days as the upper ridge takes a few days longer to build in than previously thought.

30-Day Rolling % of Normal Precipitation for the Canadian Prairies

30-day % of normal precipitation for the Canadian Prairies. This map depicts the increasing drought conditions over much of the Red River Valley, with most areas only seeing only about 60% of the normal amount of precipitation over the last 30 days.

Offering a slight bit of relief to the dry conditions over the Red River Valley, an area of rain blossomed in North Dakota overnight and has pushed into Southern Manitoba this morning. Amounts are generally expected to be between 5-10mm along the International Border with amounts dropping off quickly to the north. This system will push into NW Ontario by late morning and skies will clear out behind it. Under sunshine our temperatures will soar to nearly 30°C in the afternoon.

The subtropical ridge that was previously progged to push into the Southern Prairies has instead decided to stay more or less where it was for a few extra days, which will leave us with a more zonal flow through this weekend. Fortunately, this means that we’ll have more chances for precipitation than previously thought.

The next chance for rain will come on Saturday afternoon/evening as a shortwave that will move across Saskatchewan today slumps southeastwards across the Interlake and Red River Valley. A couple showers and thunderstorms are likely to fire up underneath the shortwave as it crosses the RRV in the late afternoon. Currently all the convective parameters look to be fairly middling, so I don’t expect any severe weather to occur. Saturday will have a daytime high of 28°C before clouds move in in the afternoon. The low on Saturday night will be around 15°C.

Sunday should be a sunny day with a high near 28°C.

The next chance for rain will be Monday night as a shortwave slumps down the upper ridge that will build into the Western Prairies over the weekend. After that, it looks like the ridge will continue building into the Eastern Prairies, bringing us sweltering hot temperatures ove 30°C by the end of next week.


Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

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