Wet End to a Wet Long Weekend

This long weekend will end on a rainy note – big surprise! Conditions should gradually improve as we move into the work week.

image

A significant weather system will spin just to our south for the next couple days

Monday and Tuesday

Monday
image
Periods of Rain
11°C / 7°C
Tuesday
image
Periods of Rain Ending
14°C / 5°C

A powerful weather system over the Dakotas/Minnesota region will continue to bring rain to Southern Manitoba on Monday. Weather models wrap a band of rain through much of Southern Manitoba through all of Monday and even into Tuesday. Models are struggling to resolve the intensity of this rain and therefore total accumulations are a major question mark. If this band does indeed stall through Southern Manitoba for the next day and a half as models indicate, then storm total accumulations could well be in the 50 to 100mm range that models are predicting. On the other hand if things pan out differently than the models predict, which looks probable, then we’re probably looking at more like 30 to 60mm on a widespread basis (these numbers include Sunday accumulations as well by the way). I believe there is a sufficient moisture feed for those high end amounts (close to 100mm) on a localized basis. However, the intensity of rain appears to be lower than model predictions, so I think in general storm totals will be closer to the 30-60mm range mentioned above. Either way a lot of rain will be had today and tomorrow, not the way most people had hoped to spend their Victoria Day.

Wednesday

Wednesday
image
Mainly Sunny.
20°C / 5°C

Conditions should improve for Wednesday as we experience a brisk north-easterly flow behind Monday’s system. Temperatures should be in the upper teens or lower twenties.

Long Range

The late week outlook looks fairly seasonal temperature wise, with little or no additional precipitation. Long range guidance doesn’t give a clear picture of how the rest of May will play out. It doesn’t appear that we’re headed for any kind of significant cool down, but a large warm up doesn’t look likely…hopefully the long range forecast will show more clarity later this week.

Brad

Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology.You can find the author as @WeatherInThePeg on Twitter.