Winnipeg will see plenty of chances for showers through the remainder of the week as temperatures slowly and steadily fall.

A Mackenzie Low tracking across the province today will spread showers across the Red River Valley. Winnipeg should see the rain start midday with an initial batch of organized rain giving way to off and on showers through the remainder of the afternoon. Temperatures should reach a high near 10°C with a west-southwest wind of 20 gusting 40 km/h. Other than perhaps a bit of sun this morning, skies will be mostly cloudy for much of the day.

Another disturbance moving through overnight will bring Winnipeg a chance of more showers. Behind it, a northerly flow developing over southern Mantioba will begin ushering in a much cooler air mass. The combination of the northerly wind and cold air will likely produce some lake-effect showers towards Thursday morning. Temperatures should dip to a low near 4°C with west-northwest winds between 10 and 20 km/h.

Thursday will bring mostly cloudy skies to Winnipeg (again) with a continued chance of showers. Northwesterly winds of 20 gusting 40 km/h will keep temperatures cool; Winnipeg’s high should reach only 9°C. There will be a continued chance for some general rain showers through the day as well as a chance for some more organized showers or drizzle in the lee of the lakes. The chance for showers will persist overnight as a cold front slumps southwards through the province. Temperatures will head to a low near +2°C, which may mean that if there are any heavier showers along the cold front, they may become mixed with snow towards Friday morning. Don’t worry, though, it’s unlikely any of it would stick.

Marked by the passage of that Arctic cold front, Friday will be an even cooler day. Temperatures will only reach a high near 5°C with mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers. Breezy northerly winds will also likely support streamers off of the Lakes. All in all, a somewhat unpleasant fall day on tap.

Friday night will bring mixed skies to the region, but enough clearing should take place that temperatures will likely dip below freezing to a low near -3°C. If this happens, it would be the first widespread hard freeze in the Red River Valley this fall.

Long Range Outlook

Unfortunately, the below-seasonal temperatures show no signs of abating over the next week or two. The large-scale weather pattern is forecast to remain fairly stagnant, with only a hint at a chance for some slight moderation in temperatures early next week.

That said, there continues to be good consensus in the extended range models that the region will end up seeing generally below-seasonal temperatures well into mid-October. Looks like fall is here to stay!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 15°C while the seasonal overnight low is 4°C.