Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

A Seasonal-ish, Cloudy Weekend Ahead

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Temperatures will moderate slightly for a near-seasonal weekend as a series of disturbances tracking along or just south of the U.S. border spread cloud and a chance of flurries across Southern Manitoba.

Today brings increasing cloudiness as a bit of morning cloud thickens up from the west through the afternoon ahead of the first of several systems. Temperatures will climb to a seasonal -11°C with fairly light winds. Cloudy skies tonight will keep temperatures from falling too far; the overnight low will be a reasonable (for early-February) -18°C.

A low pressure system will track through North Dakota on Saturday with an inverted trough extending northwards from the low centre sweeping across Southern Manitoba. This will result in a fairly good chance of flurries or light snow with general amounts of 2-4 cm. Light winds will swing from south to northwest through the day.

Models suggest up to 2-4*cm* of fluffy snow is likely on Saturday.

Temperatures will reach a high near -9°C on Saturday with an overnight low near -19°C.

Sunday will be a bit of a mixed day as the main cloud shield from this system exits off to the east and the cloud shield from the next system begins moving in from the west. Thanks to cooler air pushing in behind Saturday’s system, daytime highs will be cooler at around -15°C, but the winds should be light. There will be just a slight chance of some flurries through the day. Expect a low near -20°C on Sunday night with winds beginning to shift out of the northeast by Monday morning.

Long Range

It appears that Monday and Tuesday will both bring chances for more organized snowfalls, with the second system showing some potential to be something that actually produces moderate widespread accumulations.1 After those two systems, a fairly potent ridge of high pressure moves in from the Arctic, sending temperatures well below normal for the middle of the week.

The NAEFS is trending towards higher probabilities of above-normal temperatures in mid-February.

The cold snap looks to be short-lived, though. By the weekend, models suggest a significant pattern change with a more zonal flow becoming dominant and spreading milder Pacific air eastwards across the Prairies.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -10°C while the seasonal overnight low is -21°C.

  1. At this point, models suggest that it could produce up to 10-15 cm of snow in portions of Southern Manitoba. ↩

Sunny & Cool

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Winnipeg will finally get a break from the clouds and settle into its new reputation as a winter city thanks to an Arctic air mass that is bringing closer-to-seasonal temperatures back to the region.

Get settled in for significantly cooler temperatures than we’ve seen over the past week as daytime highs hover in the minus teens over the next few days. Generally expect daytime highs near -15°C increasing to -12 or -13°C by Friday. This will be slightly below the seasonal high of -11°C for this time of year.

The nights will be much colder than we’ve seen lately too, with lows hovering just below the -20°C mark both tonight and tomorrow night. Temperatures will moderate slightly on Friday night to a low near -18°C as some warmer air moves in associated with a weak disturbance that will move through on Saturday.

The forecasted 850mb temperatures clearly shows the colder air building into Southern Manitoba today and tonight.

Skies will be fairly sunny all 3 days as well with just a patch of mixed skies likely later this afternoon and into the early evening, then spotty clouds on Thursday & Friday. Winds won’t be too much of a bother either; both today and Thursday should see winds out of the west to northwest at 10-20 km/h, and then Friday will bring calm winds ≤ 15 km/h as the main ridge of high pressure rolls through.

Long Range

Conditions look to become more settled this weekend as the jet stream intensifies along the U.S. border, shifting the main storm track into our region.

The jet stream will be draped along the US border this weekend, bringing several weak disturbances along its path.

Systems will roll through roughly 18-24 hours apart, so there will be a chance for snow on Saturday, Sunday and Monday, however most of these systems look fairly weak and will be faster-moving systems. Unfortunately with the strong jet stream running west-to-east along the border, the warmest air will remain locked up to our south, and while temperatures may climb slightly above seasonal on Saturday, it will be a quick return into cooler weather once again.

There is some uncertainty as to how cold it will get once things settle down next week, but at this point daytime highs in the bottom half of the minus-teens seem fairly likely.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -11°C while the seasonal overnight low is -22°C.

Mild Snow Day Ushers In Cold Weather

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The work week will start off with some snow over southern Manitoba, followed by significantly colder temperatures than have been seen over the last couple weeks.

Today will bring snow to southern Manitoba, however what once looked like a solid 5-10 cm for Winnipeg will end up as just some [periods of] light snow as the bulk of the system passes to the southwest. While some areas across SW Manitoba will see up to 5-10 cm of new snow, the Red River Valley will see just a dusting to 4-8 cm over the far southwestern corner. Temperatures will be quite mild with daytime highs near the -1°C mark, but the winds will pick up for the afternoon out of the northeast to around 30 km/h with a bit of gustiness on top.

A majority of the snow associated with Monday’s snowfall is now expected to fall just southwest of Winnipeg.

Skies remain cloudy tonight with a continued chance for some flurries and a risk of freezing drizzle. Temperatures will drop to a low near -5°C.

Tuesday will bring a second, weaker disturbance across the province, this time dragging a more pronounced cold front southwards. There will be some light snow/flurries associated with this system that will persist until the passage of the cold front in the late afternoon/early evening. Temperatures will drop quite abruptly once the front moves through as skies clear out with breezy northwesterlies. Temperatures will continue to drop to a low near -20°C on Tuesday night.

Wednesday looks quiet as an area of high pressure moves through the region. Winds will be fairly light, and temperatures will reach a slightly below-seasonal high near -13°C under mainly sunny skies. It will be colder again on Wednesday night as temperatures dip to a low near -23°C.

Long Range

The remainder of the week will be fairly sunny with seasonal to slightly below-seasonal temperatures. A weak disturbance will move through on Saturday that may bring a dusting of snow, but temperatures will continue at near-seasonal values. It appears the large-scale weather pattern may shift early next week and bring milder, but snowier, weather back to southern Manitoba, so we’ll be keeping an eye on how that develops!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -11°C while the seasonal overnight low is -22°C.

Benign Weather Continues

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The weather will continue to be fairly unremarkable in Winnipeg through the weekend as a fair amount of cloud and above-normal temperatures continue.

More of what’s been in place much of the week is on the way for Winnipeg this weekend. Today will bring highs near -2°C with skies becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Temperatures will dip back down to around -8°C tonight and bounce back to a high of -3°C on Saturday, all while under cloudy skies with a chance of flurries. Sunday will bring mixed to cloudy skies with a continued chance of a scattered light flurry or two as temperatures climb to a high near -6°C. More cloud will move in on Sunday night with temperatures climbing to around -4°C by Monday morning.

Flurries are possible across much of Southern Manitoba on Saturday.

Winds will be breezy out of the northwest today at around 30 km/h. They will ease off tonight, and then we’ll see variable winds through the weekend of around 10-20 km/h.

Long Range

Monday has the potential to bring the next organized snowfall to the city as a low pressure system pushes across the region. There’s a lot of uncertainty as to how far south this system will go, but in general it appears that 4-8 cm of snow seems likely for Winnipeg with gusty northwesterly winds in the wake of the system.

After this system, it looks like Southern Manitoba will move into a pattern shift towards seasonal to slightly below-seasonal temperatures.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -12°C while the seasonal overnight low is -22°C.