Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

Sunny & Cool

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Winnipeg will finally get a break from the clouds and settle into its new reputation as a winter city thanks to an Arctic air mass that is bringing closer-to-seasonal temperatures back to the region.

Get settled in for significantly cooler temperatures than we’ve seen over the past week as daytime highs hover in the minus teens over the next few days. Generally expect daytime highs near -15°C increasing to -12 or -13°C by Friday. This will be slightly below the seasonal high of -11°C for this time of year.

The nights will be much colder than we’ve seen lately too, with lows hovering just below the -20°C mark both tonight and tomorrow night. Temperatures will moderate slightly on Friday night to a low near -18°C as some warmer air moves in associated with a weak disturbance that will move through on Saturday.

The forecasted 850mb temperatures clearly shows the colder air building into Southern Manitoba today and tonight.

Skies will be fairly sunny all 3 days as well with just a patch of mixed skies likely later this afternoon and into the early evening, then spotty clouds on Thursday & Friday. Winds won’t be too much of a bother either; both today and Thursday should see winds out of the west to northwest at 10-20 km/h, and then Friday will bring calm winds ≤ 15 km/h as the main ridge of high pressure rolls through.

Long Range

Conditions look to become more settled this weekend as the jet stream intensifies along the U.S. border, shifting the main storm track into our region.

The jet stream will be draped along the US border this weekend, bringing several weak disturbances along its path.

Systems will roll through roughly 18-24 hours apart, so there will be a chance for snow on Saturday, Sunday and Monday, however most of these systems look fairly weak and will be faster-moving systems. Unfortunately with the strong jet stream running west-to-east along the border, the warmest air will remain locked up to our south, and while temperatures may climb slightly above seasonal on Saturday, it will be a quick return into cooler weather once again.

There is some uncertainty as to how cold it will get once things settle down next week, but at this point daytime highs in the bottom half of the minus-teens seem fairly likely.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -11°C while the seasonal overnight low is -22°C.

Mild Snow Day Ushers In Cold Weather

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The work week will start off with some snow over southern Manitoba, followed by significantly colder temperatures than have been seen over the last couple weeks.

Today will bring snow to southern Manitoba, however what once looked like a solid 5-10 cm for Winnipeg will end up as just some [periods of] light snow as the bulk of the system passes to the southwest. While some areas across SW Manitoba will see up to 5-10 cm of new snow, the Red River Valley will see just a dusting to 4-8 cm over the far southwestern corner. Temperatures will be quite mild with daytime highs near the -1°C mark, but the winds will pick up for the afternoon out of the northeast to around 30 km/h with a bit of gustiness on top.

A majority of the snow associated with Monday’s snowfall is now expected to fall just southwest of Winnipeg.

Skies remain cloudy tonight with a continued chance for some flurries and a risk of freezing drizzle. Temperatures will drop to a low near -5°C.

Tuesday will bring a second, weaker disturbance across the province, this time dragging a more pronounced cold front southwards. There will be some light snow/flurries associated with this system that will persist until the passage of the cold front in the late afternoon/early evening. Temperatures will drop quite abruptly once the front moves through as skies clear out with breezy northwesterlies. Temperatures will continue to drop to a low near -20°C on Tuesday night.

Wednesday looks quiet as an area of high pressure moves through the region. Winds will be fairly light, and temperatures will reach a slightly below-seasonal high near -13°C under mainly sunny skies. It will be colder again on Wednesday night as temperatures dip to a low near -23°C.

Long Range

The remainder of the week will be fairly sunny with seasonal to slightly below-seasonal temperatures. A weak disturbance will move through on Saturday that may bring a dusting of snow, but temperatures will continue at near-seasonal values. It appears the large-scale weather pattern may shift early next week and bring milder, but snowier, weather back to southern Manitoba, so we’ll be keeping an eye on how that develops!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -11°C while the seasonal overnight low is -22°C.

Benign Weather Continues

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The weather will continue to be fairly unremarkable in Winnipeg through the weekend as a fair amount of cloud and above-normal temperatures continue.

More of what’s been in place much of the week is on the way for Winnipeg this weekend. Today will bring highs near -2°C with skies becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Temperatures will dip back down to around -8°C tonight and bounce back to a high of -3°C on Saturday, all while under cloudy skies with a chance of flurries. Sunday will bring mixed to cloudy skies with a continued chance of a scattered light flurry or two as temperatures climb to a high near -6°C. More cloud will move in on Sunday night with temperatures climbing to around -4°C by Monday morning.

Flurries are possible across much of Southern Manitoba on Saturday.

Winds will be breezy out of the northwest today at around 30 km/h. They will ease off tonight, and then we’ll see variable winds through the weekend of around 10-20 km/h.

Long Range

Monday has the potential to bring the next organized snowfall to the city as a low pressure system pushes across the region. There’s a lot of uncertainty as to how far south this system will go, but in general it appears that 4-8 cm of snow seems likely for Winnipeg with gusty northwesterly winds in the wake of the system.

After this system, it looks like Southern Manitoba will move into a pattern shift towards seasonal to slightly below-seasonal temperatures.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -12°C while the seasonal overnight low is -22°C.

Slightly Cooler & Becoming Breezy

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Temperatures will dip slightly through the second half of the week as breezy northwesterly winds develop across Southern Manitoba.

It’s another fairly simple forecast for the coming days ahead as little changes in the weather other than a slight shift in temperatures.

As a potent low pressure system that brought a wintry mix to South Dakota yesterday moves off into Eastern Canada, the slack flow that’s been in place over the province for the past week will be replaced by a northwesterly flow with breezy winds that will tap into slightly cooler temperatures.

Today will bring winds of 10-20 km/h and temperatures steady around -6°C. There will be a very slight chance of some flurries, but they would be quite light and scattered. Skies will be fairly cloudy, although a brief sunny break or two can’t be ruled out.

Temperatures will dip to around -11°C tonight, the coldest overnight low since January 17th when the mercury dipped to -16.0°C early in the morning.

Thursday will bring a cooler high temperature and relatively light winds as a ridge of high pressure passes across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will top out around -7°C with cloudy skies in the morning giving way to some sunny breaks in the afternoon. Temperatures will dip to a low near -12°C once again on Thursday night under partly cloudy skies.

Northwest winds are expected over Southern Manitoba on Friday

Friday brings mixed skies and strengthening northwesterly winds to 30-40 km/h. Temperatures will climb to a high near -3°C. It looks like the cloud cover will be reinforced late Friday, moderating overnight lows slightly as the temperature drops to about -8°C.

Long Range

The weekend will continue the trend of above normal temperatures and cloudy skies. Don’t expect to see much sunshine as a slight chance of light, scattered flurries persists through the weekend.

Above-Normal Temperatures Expected Until End of January

While the cold snap earlier this month seems to be a vivid memory of many people I talk to, it actually hasn’t been a cold month at all, temperature-wise.

The cold snap began on January 3rd and persisted through January 14th. Throughout that period, daytime highs averaged -17.6°C (4.5°C below normal) while overnight lows averaged -28.1 (5.1°C below normal). This resulted in a mean temperature of -22.8°C for that 12-day stretch, which is 4.8°C below normal.

By comparison, the latest warm spell began on January 15th and has persisted so far until January 24th. During this time frame, daytime highs have averaged -1.6°C (11.3°C above normal) and overnight lows have averaged -7.1°C (15.9°C above normal). The most extreme deviation from normal occurred on January 21st when a minimum temperature of +0.9°C occurred, breaking the daily record for warmest minimum temperature at a whopping 23.8°C above normal.1 This has resulted in a mean temperature of -4.4°C for that 10-day stretch, which is 13.6°C above normal.

All that to say, the warm has been much more unseasonable than the cold. January currently sits with a monthly mean temperature of -14.3°C, which is 3.7°C above normal.

Temperatures are expected to remain mild, albeit not as warm as we experienced earlier in the week, with daytime highs hovering between -8 and -1°C through the end of January. This means that another month of above-normal temperatures will likely be recorded in Winnipeg when January draws to a close.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -12°C while the seasonal overnight low is -23°C.

  1. The previous record warmest January minimum temperature for January 21st was -3.3°C set in 1900. ↩