Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

Cool Weather With A Windy Weekend

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The cool weather will continue through the next few days with daytime highs struggling near 5°C below seasonal for early April. Heading into the weekend, the wind will be the biggest story as a low pressure system brings strong southerly winds to the region on Saturday and strong northerly winds on Sunday.

A ridge of high pressure situated over the province will bring cool temperatures, clear skies and light winds to Southern Manitoba today. In Winnipeg & the Red River Valley, temperatures will climb to a high near -4°C, some 12°C below seasonal values for this time of year. Tonight will be a cool night with overnight lows dipping below -10°C. Through the second half of the night, cloud cover ahead of an approaching low pressure system will begin spilling into Western Manitoba and towards the Red River Valley.

Windy Saturday

Saturday’s weather will be dominated by a fairly strong low pressure system moving across the province. The primary story for Winnipeg & the Red River Valley will be the strong winds associated with it.

RDPS 10m Wind valid 21Z April 9, 2016
Strong southerly winds (pink) will be in place over Southern Manitoba on Saturday.

Beginning mid-day on Saturday, strong southerly winds will develop over the Red River Valley southwards into the Dakotas. Winds will reach their peak by mid-afternoon with sustained winds of 50-60km/h with gusts up to 80km/h. The winds will then diminish in the evening as the low pressure centre moves over the region.

There will be a chance of some shower or flurry activity with this system on Saturday, but at this point it looks like a vast majority of the precipitation will remain to the north, primarily falling through Parkland Manitoba eastwards through the Interlake.

Temperatures will climb to around +2°C during the day under mainly cloudy skies.

Flurries Move in on Saturday Night Alongside Strong Northerlies

With the passage of the low occurring mainly on Saturday night, temperatures will remain relatively warm; by early Sunday morning the temperature is expected to dip to just -2°C. It will begin to feel a lot colder, however, as the low passes to the east and strong northwesterly winds begin moving in behind the system.

GDPS 10m Wind valid 18Z April 10, 2016
Strong northwesterly winds (pink) will be in place over Southern Manitoba on Sunday.

Sunday will be another cloudy day with decent chance of some flurry or light snow activity as temperatures climb to a high of +1°C. Winds will strengthen out of the northwest to 40-50km/h with gusts up to 60km/h. The wind ease to 30km/h or so on Sunday night as temperatures dip to -8°C for a low.

Long Range: Heading Into A Warming Trend

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid April 15-22, 2016
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid April 15-22, 2016

After a lengthy stretch of below-normal temperatures, it’s beginning to look like we’ll finally see a taste of spring in the second half of next week as an upper-level ridge begins shifting eastwards and spreading milder air into Manitoba. Daytime highs of will climb towards 10°C by the end of next week. No significant precipitation is expected through the next 4-8 days at the moment.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 8°C while the seasonal overnight low is -4°C.

Messy Winter Weather Continues

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Winnipeg hasn’t see the last of the snow quite yet; after a mix of snow and rain yesterday, another mess of wintery weather is on the way later today as a low pressure system slumps through the province from the northwest. Afterwards, the Red River Valley will be left with generally cool weather with daytime highs below seasonal values.

Winnipeg will see but a brief reprieve from yesterday’s snowy & slushy weather before another low pressure system pushes into the province from Northern Saskatchewan and brings another shot of rain and snow to Southern Manitoba. Before that wet and messy weather moves in, Winnipeg will be stuck under mostly cloudy skies with light winds. Temperatures will be below normal today with daytime highs near +3°C.

RDPS 6hr. QPF valid 06Z April 7, 2016
The RDPS shows an area of precipitation moving across the Red River Valley on Wednesday evening

By late this afternoon, a mix of rain and snow will begin working its way into the Red River Valley from the northwest. This mix of precipitation will likely continue into the evening before changing over to just snow overnight as temperatures dip to a low near -3°C.

As the low pressure system passes to the east of the Red River Valley overnight, stronger northwesterly winds will develop with sustained winds of 30-40km/h and gusts to around 50km/h.

Thursday will bring more cloud to the region with the gusty northwesterly winds continuing throughout the day, sustained by a ridge of high pressure building in from the north. There will be a chance of light flurry activity throughout much of the day, but no significant accumulations are expected. The daytime high will be a bit cooler than Wednesday at +1 or +2°C, but as the ridge moves it brings much cooler air. It will be noticeable on Thursday night as the winds drop off and Winnipeg heads to a low near -10°C.

The sun should finally make an appearance on Friday as the weather over Southern Manitoba is dominated by a ridge of high pressure. This will result mainly sunny skies with light winds and very cool daytime highs[1] in the low minus single digits. Friday night will continue to be cold with an overnight low in the minus teens.

Long Range

Looking ahead to to the weekend and beyond, it appears that the generally cool temperatures will stick around until at least the middle of next week before a return to more seasonal values.

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid April 11-15, 2016
The CPC is forecast below-normal temperatures for Southern Manitoba in the 6-10 day time period

The weekend looks like the most "active" period in the longer-range forecast as another significant low pressure system moves across the Prairies. Strong southerly winds will develop ahead of the low as it moves towards Manitoba through the day on Saturday[2], and then as they begin to diminish another mix of rain and snow will spread across portions of central and southern Manitoba. There’s uncertainty as to how much Winnipeg will see, but best indications are that most should stay north of the city.

Otherwise, the weather looks cool and calm through the first half of next week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 7°C while the seasonal overnight low is -4°C.

  1. Friday’s daytime high will be nearly 15°C below seasonal values!  ↩
  2. Sustained winds of 50 km/h are possible on Saturday with gusts as high as 70 km/h.  ↩

April Off To A Cool Start

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There’s no joke here; April will be off to a cool start as a surge of Arctic air moves into Southern Manitoba today, bringing temperatures 5-10°C below normal to the region through the weekend.

Today will bring a potent little low pressure system that will spread cloud into Winnipeg & the Red River Valley through the morning as it approaches from the northwest. Temperatures will climb to a high near 0°C as snow moves into the region through the afternoon. The bulk of the snow will fall through the late afternoon and early evening, with around 2-4cm expected across the region.

Behind the low pressure system, a cold front surges southwards and very strong northerly winds are expected to move through the Red River Valley, with the strongest winds occurring between around 9PM and 2AM. The winds will peak with sustained winds of 50-60km/h and gusts as high as 80km/h. As the winds taper off overnight, skies will clear and temperatures will drop to a low near -9°C.

NAM Forecast 925mb Winds – 03Z April 2, 2016
A core of very strong winds is expected over the Red River Valley on Friday evening.

Saturday will be a calmer day that acts as a brief reprieve while the next low pressure system organizes over the western Prairies. The day will start off fairly sunny, but more cloud will begin moving in from the northwest through the afternoon as the next system begins approaching the province. Daytime highs will sit near -1°C with light winds. Temperatures will fall to around -6°C on Saturday night with some light snow building into the region. Winds will pick up out of the east through the night.

Sunday will bring some more snow to the region as the next low passes through. The organized snowfall will taper off through the morning then diminish to some flurries through Sunday afternoon. Daytime highs will be near 0°C with winds shifting to the north through the afternoon.

GDPS 12hr. Snowfall Forecast (10:1 SLR) valid 06Z April 2, 2016
A swath of 2-4cm of snow is expected across south-central and south-eastern Manitoba later today.

By the time all is said and done, it looks like this second system will produce another 2-4cm of snow in Winnipeg, however some models hint at some more intense snowfall possible with this system; we’ll keep an eye on it as it develops. Skies will clear out on Sunday night with temperatures dropping to -9°C or so on Sunday night.

Long Range

Temperatures will continue below-normal into the start of next week. The biggest story, though, is the chance for a major winter storm early next week.

GDPS 12hr. QPF Forecast valid 00Z April 6, 2016
The GDPS is showing a major winter storm on Tuesday

Several models are picking up on a storm system moving through Southern Manitoba on Tuesday that will bring windy conditions alongside the potential for 10-20cm of snow. It’s too early to get into many specifics but this system would bring rain, freezing rain and snow into the province. We’ll be keeping an eye on this one and have more details in Monday’s forecast!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -6°C.

Arctic Blast Incoming

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A major shift in the overall weather pattern will bring a blast of Arctic air to Winnipeg for the end of the week, ushered in by unpleasant and strong northerly winds and the now-infamous Polar Vortex. Fortunately, the cold snap looks to be short-lived as the coldest air will rotate off towards Eastern Canada quickly and near-seasonal temperatures return early next week.

Today will remain pleasant with above-seasonal warmth in place as temperatures climb to around the 9°C mark for Winnipeg’s daytime high. Skies will start off sunny, but become mixed through the afternoon as cloud begins spreading in ahead of a low pressure system that will impact the province later today and tomorrow. Showers and flurries will push into western Manitoba this afternoon, but will remain west of the Red River Valley for the most part until tomorrow.

Here in Winnipeg, skies will be cloudy tonight as the temperature drops to a low near 0°C.

RDPS 12hr. precipitation forecast valid 00Z Friday April 1, 2016
Scattered showers and flurries are expected across Southern Manitoba on Thursday

Thursday will be mainly cloudy with a chance of showers or flurries throughout much of the day. The first of two cold fronts will swing through in the afternoon, ushering in strong northerly winds of 40 gusting 60 km/h. Temperatures will climb to 4-5°C for the daytime high, but much cooler air will work into the region tonight, sending overnight lows to around -8°C.

Friday will also bring cloudy skies with a high near +2°C as another low pressure system moves through brining a decent chance for some more snowfall through the afternoon/evening. Behind the system, another shot of strong northerly winds, this time as strong as 50 gusting to 70 km/h. Temperatures will fall to a low near -10°C on Friday night.

Long Range

The weekend will be cool with below-normal temperatures as the Polar Vortex grazes Manitoba as it rotates eastwards into Ontario.

GDPS forecast 500mb height anomalies valid 18Z Saturday April 2, 2016
GDPS forecast 850mb (~ 1.5km AGL) temperature anomalies valid 18Z Saturday April 2, 2016

The Polar Vortex is easily seen by abnormal 500 mb heights (pictured above over Ontario in pink/purple) and will bring below-normal temperatures to much of Manitoba throughout the weekend with daytime highs near the freezing mark. Alongside the cool weather will also come mainly cloudy skies, but no precipitation is expected.

Temperatures will rebound back towards seasonal next week with precipitation confined to a weak disturbance mid-week that could potentially bring a couple cm of snow or few mm of rain, depending on temperatures & timing.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -6°C.