Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

Winter’s On The Way

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The (seasonally) gorgeous weather we’ve been having to start off November will be coming to an end this weekend as a pool of cold air that’s been dammed up north of 60° spills southwards behind a storm system that will push across the province on Friday. The result will be an abrupt transition from temperatures in the mid-single digits on the warm side of zero to highs well below the normal 2°C. In addition the cooler weather, Southern Manitoba will move into a busier weather pattern that will produce multiple threats for precipitation over the coming week, including what may be our first snowfall that “sticks.” After a quiet 5 weeks, it looks like the weather is set to get much busier in Winnipeg!

Wednesday
3°C / -1°C
Cloudy

Thursday
3°C / -2°C
Mainly cloudy

Friday
4°C / -1°C
Morning snow changing to periods of rain

Before things begin to get busier, Manitobans in the Red River Valley will get another couple days of above-normal temperatures to enjoy. Both today and tomorrow will bring mainly cloudy skies thanks to persistent stratus cloud that will struggle to clear out of the region. A few sunny breaks may show up, but generally cloudy skies will be the common theme. Temperatures will climb to around 3°C for the daytime high today.

Another batch of flurries is expected to move through the Interlake tonight.
Another batch of flurries is expected to move through the Interlake tonight.

Another round of flurry activity is expected tonight as a trough pushes through the region. The overnight low will drop

Thursday will bring a repeat performance for the high, but with a few more clear breaks likely on Thursday night, the low will drop a bit lower to around -2°C. No significant precipitation is expected either day.

Friday: The First Snow?

Friday will mark the start of our transition into a stormier, colder weather pattern. A low pressure system moving from southeastern Saskatchewan into North Dakota will spread an area of snow eastwards into southwest Manitoba on Thursday night, pushing eastwards into the Red River Valley on Friday morning. It looks likely that the precipitation will reach from the American border into the Southern Interlake[1], however the bigger challenge as this system pushes eastwards will be what type of precipitation will be falling out of the sky.

5-10mm of liquid-equivalent precipitation is expected on Friday; how much of that falls as snow remains to be seen.
5-10mm of liquid-equivalent precipitation is expected on Friday; how much of that falls as snow remains to be seen.

With a high of just +1°C, it will be a fine line between rain and snow, with a shallow above-freezing layer right at the surface working to try and melt snow as it moves into the lowest levels of the atmosphere. As the morning progresses, warmer air will push in aloft and help snow transition into rain. All in all, it doesn’t seem like a ton of snow will fall; perhaps 2-4cm, however with the switch-over to rain and temperatures climbing above zero, it’s unlikely that it really has much of a chance to accumulate or stick around.

With temperatures hovering near or just above 0°C through the morning, exact timing of rain and snow will remain somewhat uncertain until much closer to this system’s approach.

Temperatures will dip below zero on Friday night as they head to the overnight low of -1°C or -2°C. The freezing temperatures following the rain or snow we see could end up creating quite slippery road conditions, so if you need to travel on Saturday, now’s a great time to brush up on your winter driving skills!

Weekend Brings First Taste of Winter

Behind Friday’s system, significantly cooler air will begin working its way into the province. Temperatures will fall below zero to around -3°C or so for daytime highs and around -8°C[2] for overnight lows. Some lake-effect snow may be possible in the lee of the lakes on Saturday with the cool northwesterly winds moving over the still-open water.

Another low pressure system will move through on Sunday, bringing the first chance for a significant snow event to the Red River Valley. It’s still too far out to try and speculate just how bad it will be, but current model output is showing the potential for anywhere from 10-20cm of snow by Monday morning. It’s still a long ways out, though, and this system could easily end up to our north or south. Consider it added to our storm watch list.

So, with the arrival of winter fairly imminent, enjoy the last couple above-zero days!

  1. There’s a little disagreement with some models suggesting the precipitation remains mainly south of Winnipeg, but at this point it looks like a fairly safe bet that Winnipeg will be impacted by this system.  ↩
  2. …-ish.  ↩

Chilly Halloween in the Red River Valley

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A very cool Halloween evening is ahead in the Red River Valley thanks to a large high pressure system from the Arctic that will slowly move out of the province through the day. Unfortunately, as it begins to move out this evening, a fairly breezy southerly wind will develop and make things feel even colder than they already are.

Friday
2°C / -3°C
Mainly sunny and cool; becoming windy through the afternoon

Saturday
4°C / -2°C
Cloudy periods and breezy

Sunday
8°C / 2°C
Mixed to cloudy skies

Today will be a very chilly day with temperatures struggling to reach a daytime high of just 1 or 2°C thanks to a substantial amount of colder air that has pushed into the province with an Arctic ridge that’s moving through. Winds won’t be too bad this morning, but through the afternoon – as the ridge moves southeastwards into Minnesota and NW Ontario – southerly winds will strengthen to about 30km/h with gusts to around 50km/h.

Temperature & wind forecast for Halloween evening in Winnipeg.
Temperature & wind forecast for Halloween evening in Winnipeg.

Temperatures will quickly drop to just below freezing this evening which, when combined with the ≥ 30km/h winds, will feel closer to the -8 to -10°C range. For anyone heading out, it will be quite a cool evening and be sure to bring some gloves and toques to keep warm.

Temperatures will drop to around -3°C overnight with the wind persisting.

Warming Through the Weekend

Temperatures will slowly climb as warmer air begins working into Manitoba from the west. Saturday will be another windy day with southerly winds at 30-40km/h with gusts as high as 60km/h. The temperature will climb to around 4°C for a high, but will certainly feel cooler than that with the strong winds. There will be a few clouds through the day, but it will be a relatively sunny day overall. The temperature will drop to around -2°C on Saturday night.

Sunday will bring the warmest weather in a while with temperatures climbing into the upper single digits. Winds will be lighter than Friday or Saturday which will make that warmer temperature feel more pleasant. Skies will be much cloudier and there may even be a very slight chance of a shower. Sunday night will see temperatures drop to 1 or 2°C with an increased chance of some shower activity.

Unsettled Week Ahead

The warmth and cloud reaching us by the end of the weekend is thanks to a developing low pressure system in Montana that is forecast to push into Manitoba early next week. There’s significant uncertainty to where and/or how much precipitation will fall, but at this point it looks like Winnipeg will see some share of the unsettled weather on Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures for much of the week look to be near-normal[1] but there are hints that a significant low pressure system is possible at the end of the week that could bring Southern Manitoba its first wintery blast of the year. A lot can change between now and then, though, so we’ll just keep an eye on things for now and enjoy the warmer end to the weekend ahead!

  1. Normal daytime highs heading into the beginning of November are around 3 or 4°C.  ↩

Cool Weather Edges Back Towards Seasonal

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The shot of cool air that worked its way into Winnipeg in a somewhat unwelcome fashion yesterday will remain entrenched over the region for the next few days, resulting in seasonal to just below seasonal temperatures heading towards Halloween. Fortunately, the weather looks to be drier, and it’s unlikely that we’ll see much more of the white stuff.

Wednesday
4°C / -1°C
Mainly cloudy; slight chance of morning flurries
Thursday
2°C / -6°C
Partly cloudy and cool
Friday
4°C / -2°C
Mainly sunny with increasing cloud in the afternoon

Today will remain mainly cloudy but, unlike yesterday, our temperatures should manage to sneak just a little bit higher, to around 4 or 5°C[1] with substantially calmer winds. A weak low pressure system skirting along the U.S. border will bring a slight chance of showers to areas in the vicinity, but it looks like rain will likely remain States-side. A chilly night ahead tonight as some of the cloud starts clearing out and we head to a low of around -1°C.

Thursday will be a cool day as an Arctic ridge builds southeastwards into the province. Skies will be partly cloudy with no real chance of precipitation and it will be quite cool as temperatures are only expected to climb to 1 or 2°C. The overnight low will dip down to a very chilly -6 or -7°C under mainly clear skies. Thursday night looks like the low point for our temperatures over the next while.

A Chilly Halloween

Temperatures will begin to moderate on Friday but it will still be a chilly Halloween evening. The day will start off mainly sunny, but as the Arctic ridge slides off to our east and another low pressure system begins approaching from the west, more cloud will begin pushing in from the west. The temperature will climb to around 4°C by the afternoon and, thanks to the increasing cloud, gradually cool off through the evening.

Preliminary temperature & wind forecast for Halloween evening.
Preliminary temperature & wind forecast for Halloween evening.

Alongside the increasing cloud coverage will come gradually increasing winds. While early in the evening they’ll be only around 15-20km/h, the wind will gradually increase to 30 gusting 50km/h by mid-evening and then further increasing to 40 gusting 60km/h by late in the evening. The temperature will drop to around -2°C overnight. The wind will make it feel rather cool, despite the fairly seasonal temperatures expected.

Unsettled Weekend

The weekend looks somewhat unpleasant as warmer air tries to work its way back into the province. Saturday looks quite windy and fairly cloudy as temperatures climb into the upper single-digits. Sunday brings some uncertainty as a larger system develops in the northern United States and lifts northeastwards. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal, however it is possible that it ends up being a fairly rainy day. There’s significant disagreement with the models on the timing of this system, though; some bring rain in early on Sunday while others delay the rain until Monday. We’ll be sure to keep an eye on this system as it develops and we’ll take a closer look at it in Friday’s post!

  1. Seasonal highs for late October in Winnipeg sit near 5°C.  ↩

Temperatures To Remain Above-Normal Despite Cool Down

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A cold front passing through Southern Manitoba later today will usher in cooler air, but temperatures will only dip slightly and remain above-normal through the weekend.

Friday
16°C / 5°C
Mixed skies; windy in the afternoon

Saturday
11°C / 2°C
Mainly sunny

Sunday
12°C / 5°C
Mainly cloudy wiht a chance of showers

Friday Brings Blustery Winds

Today will be a warm day across the Red River Valley with daytime highs in the 15–16°C range – around 8°C above the normal daytime high of 7°C – under mixed skies trending towards cloudier this afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient coupled with an advancing cold front will bring fairly gusty winds into the province this afternoon, with southerly winds shifting to westerly-to-northwesterly and increasing in speed to 35–45km/h with gusts as high as 60–70km/h. No precipitation is expected with the passage of the cold front.

The 850mb temperatures from the NAM model clearly show the cold front passing through Southern Manitoba this afternoon.
The 850mb temperatures from the NAM model clearly show the cold front passing through Southern Manitoba this afternoon.

Temperatures will drop to around 5°C tonight under clearing skies.

Mixed Weekend Ahead

Saturday is shaping up to be a very nice day with a few clouds, diminishing winds and a high near 11°C. Saturday night should bring clear skies and a low near 2°C.

Sunday will see a warm front lift into the Red River Valley, resulting in a mainly cloudy day with a chance of showers as the front moves through; it’s looking like the rain potential is in the afternoon at this point. Expect a high in the low teens alongside some breezy southeasterly or easterly winds moving towards an overnight low around 5°C.