Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

Cool Weekend, Warming Next Week

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Cool weather will persist across Southern Manitoba this weekend as the region remains under the influence of an unseasonably cold outbreak of Arctic air. Temperatures will continue to slowly moderate, however things will be generally mixed through the weekend with a fair amount of cloud and slight chance of precipitation. The real warm-up will build into the region next week, returning us to summer-like weather.

Friday
13°C / 4°C
Mainly sunny

Saturday
14°C / 5°C
Mainly cloudy

Sunday
14°C / 5°C
Mixed skies

Today will be the nicest day that the area has seen in a while thanks to a westerly wind which will help dry out the low-levels and clear out the cloud that has been so persistent over the past week. Thanks to that, mainly sunny skies will be seen in Winnipeg and throughout much of the Red River Valley with westerly to southwesterly winds up to around 20km/h. Temperatures will remain cool, however, as the wind will be outflow from the colder air mass slumping to our south; highs through the Red River Valley will sit near the 13°C mark.

Tonight will see mainly clear skies with a little bit of cloud working in from the northwest late in the overnight period and a low near 4°C.

Cool, Mixed Weekend

Saturday will be a mainly cloudy day as a weak trough of low pressure swings through the Red River Valley. While no precipitation looks likely, there will be a slight chance of some isolated, light shower activity. The temperature will climb to around 14°C for a high temperature in the valley.

Skies will begin to clear overnight as the trough slides off into Ontario and winds back to northwesterly, although another slightly cool shot of air will be moving in behind the trough so some cloud with a chance of showers or drizzle in the lee of the lakes is likely. Lows will be near 4 or 5°C in Winnipeg & through the Red River Valley.

Sunday will bring mixed skies with a chance of drizzle or showers in the lee of the lakes. The high will once again be near 14 or 15°C while the overnight low drops to a repeat 5°C.

Warmer Weather Next Week

The NAEFS is forecasting above-normal temperatures across Southern Manitoba in the 8-14 day outlook.
The NAEFS is forecasting above-normal temperatures across Southern Manitoba in the 8–14 day outlook.

Manitobans will be repaid for their patience with the cold weather – if medium-to-long-range enesemble models are to be believed – with a hurried return to summer-like conditions. Both Canadian and American models show an upper-level ridge building eastwards across the Prairies next week brining significantly warmer air with it.

850mb temperatures will climb early next week from the –2°C or so they sit at this morning over Winnipeg to around 10°C. This warming aloft will translate to significantly warmer temperatures down here where we live, with daytime highs moving from low-to-mid teens up to the low 20’s.

The weather also looks fairly dry through the warm-up, although by week’s end there looks to be a chance of showers or thunderstorms as a low pressure complex tracks eastwards through the Prairies & Northern Plains of the United States.

Coldest Weather of the Week Still Ahead

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Unfortunately, this week’s plunge into terrible cold for September is far from over, with cooler temperatures still set to work their way into Southern Manitoba. The growing season will be at risk for a tragically early end with frost a slight possibility over the next couple nights here in the Red River Valley.

Calgary, AB and its surrounding areas have been hit particularly hard by this early-Fall oubreak of cold weather, with up to 25cm of snow causing all sorts of problems, including broken tree branches as shown in this picture taken in NW Calgary. Credit: @jpaint (Twitter)
Calgary, AB and its surrounding areas have been hit particularly hard by this early-Fall outbreak of cold weather, with up to 25cm of snow causing all sorts of problems, including broken tree branches as shown in this picture taken in NW Calgary. Credit: @jpaint

The weather story for the Red River Valley over the next few days is dominated by a rather significant high pressure system slumping southwards through Alberta. The 1034mb or stronger high is a result of a large outbreak of cold air from the high Arctic and while the high center is sliding down the foothills of Alberta, the system covers the entire Prairies.

This means that substantially below-normal temperatures[1] accompanied by brisk northerly winds will persist for much of the rest of the week before slightly milder air finally pushes across the Prairies as the high pushes southwards into the United States.

Wednesday
12°C / 2°C
Mixed skies; drizzle possible overnight.

Thursday
12°C / 1°C
Mixed skies

Friday
13°C / 5°C
A few clouds

Today will be a windy day with moderate northerly winds to around 30km/h and a high of only 12°C or so. Skies will be fairly mixed, although it will become more consistently cloudy this evening as cooler air begins working into Southern Manitoba aloft and the lakes begin producing more cloud. By late-evening a slight chance of drizzle will work its way into Winnipeg as north/northeasterly winds bring in cloud streamers off the south basin of Lake Winnipeg. Drizzle or showery weather is more likely near the Portage La Prairie region where Lake Manitoba, under slightly colder air and more favourable wind profiles undergoes more vigorous lake-effect activity.

Temperatures will drop to around 2°C or so, however it’s possible that the temperature drops to the freezing mark with some frost in some of the rural areas in the Red River Valley, depending on where cloud vs. clear skies set up.

Thursday will bring mixed skies again, although the winds should be a bit lighter than today. The high will once again be around 12°C. There will be more cloud from the lakes on Thursday night and a slight chance for some drizzle down-wind of the lakes as we head to a low of around 1°C. Once again, it’s possible some areas see the temperature drop to the freezing mark in rural regions, depending on cloud cover.

Friday will bring a shift in the weather as the high finally slumps to our south and westerly winds work their way in. We won’t see the temperature move much during the day thanks to the fact that, despite the shift in wind, southern Manitoba will still be under the influence of outflow winds from the high. The westerly winds should clear things out, allowing for our sunniest day of the week.

A disturbance will then begin diving southwards from the Northern Prairies on Friday night, spreading cloud ahead of it and slightly milder temperatures aloft. As a result, temperatures will likely be a little warmer on Friday night with lows near 5°C.

Improving Conditions for Next Week

Looking ahead, things look to begin gradually improving on the weekend. Saturday will bring some sun and cloud alongside a slight chance for some shower activity as a weak disturbance trundles through. On the backside of the system lake-effect showers/drizzle will again be possible on Saturday night. Temperatures will likely be limited to the low teens on Saturday.

Sunday will be a nicer day. At this point it looks like it will likely be a mainly sunny day with a high in the mid-teens. There’s some discrepancy in models right now with some models suggesting a mainly cloudy day, others mainly sunny. We’ll have to wait and see what exactly pans out for the day.

The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature anomaly forecast is calling for above-normal temperatures in Southern Manitoba.
The NAEFS 8–14 day temperature anomaly forecast is calling for above-normal temperatures in Southern Manitoba.

Into next week, it looks like we’ll see a return to summer weather as a surge of warm air spills eastwards across the Prairies. The NAEFS[2] is calling for above-normal temperatures in the 8–14 day outlook, which will be a welcome relief after this very early cold snap. Models are suggesting that next week will be relatively dry, with the potential for rainfall near the end of the week.

  1. Normal temperatures for around August 10th in Winnipeg are highs of 19°C and lows of 7°C.  ↩
  2. North American Ensemble Forecast System  ↩

The Cold Front is Coming!

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The cold front is coming! The cold front is coming! After a pleasant weekend, things will turn sharply cooler this week as a potent cold front plows through southern Manitoba today.

A cold front will bring sharply cooler weather to southern Manitoba on Monday
A cold front will bring sharply cooler weather to southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday
22°C / 7°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of showers

Today will see a strong cold front sweep through southern Manitoba. The front will move through western Manitoba early in the morning, exiting the province by late afternoon or early evening. There may be a few showers along this cold front, but no significant precipitation is expected. However, temperatures will drop significantly behind the front, and winds will increase as well, marking an end to summery weather, at least for now.

Tuesday

Tuesday
10°C / 4°C
Mainly cloudy with showers

Tuesday will be a nasty day. High temperatures will struggle to reach double-digits and there will be a breezy north wind. To add insult to injury, we may also see some showers throughout the day, just adding to that nasty fall feel. This will be our first taste of fall weather since, well, last fall!

Wednesday

Wednesday
12°C / 2°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Wednesday will be another cool day in southern Manitoba. High temperatures in the low double digits are expected, with a breezy north wind once again.

Long Range

After reading about the gloomy weather above, you’re probably hoping this isn’t it for summer…well, all hope is not lost, at least not yet! Long range models suggest that we may return to a more summery pattern at some point in the second half of September. Let’s hope the long range forecast is correct!

Pleasant Weekend Before Big Cool Down

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After a dreary evening last night, conditions will gradually improve to quite a pleasant weekend for Winnipeg & the Red River Valley.

The RDPS model is forecasting a line of showers & thunderstorms through the Red River Valley by 5-7PM this evening.
The RDPS model is forecasting a line of showers & thunderstorms through the Red River Valley by 5–7PM this evening.

Today will start off with a bit of cloud through the Red River Valley thanks to the Manitoba lakes. We won’t see completely sunny skies, though, as a combination of increasing instability and some cloud moving in ahead of a trough moving across the province produce mixed skies through much of the day.

Friday
18°C / 5°C
Increasing cloud; a chance of showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon.

This afternoon into early this evening will bring a slight chance for showers or thunderstorms across the Red River Valley as that trough line works its way through the region. At this point it doesn’t look like severe weather is likely. Once the trough swings through, northerly winds at around 30km/h will move into the region and general clearing will take place.

Cooler air aloft will once again slump over Southern Manitoba tonight, bringing with it a chance for lake-effect cloud and drizzle once again. Winds, in general, don’t look particularly favourable which will likely limit or exclude their development. Winds will taper off overnight and low temperatures will be near 4 or 5°C.

Improving for the Weekend

Saturday
21°C / 8°C
Cloudy periods

Sunday
23°C / 12°C
A few clouds

Warmer weather will move in for the weekend as multiple low pressure systems draw warmer air eastwards across the Prairies as they move across Central Manitoba. Precipitation is expected to remain through Central & Northern Manitoba, leaving us dry with seasonal highs in the low 20’s. Overnight lows look to dip to around the 10°C mark, give or take a couple degrees.

Big Cool Down Next Week

Unfortunately, the pleasant weather will not be sticking around. Colder air builds into the Northern Prairies behind the systems tracking through during the weekend, which will then be driven southwards early in the week as an Alberta-clipper type system races across the Prairies.

The CPC 6-10 day temperature & precipitation anomaly outlook calls for below normal temperatures and near- to slightly above-normal precipitation.
The CPC 6–10 day temperature & precipitation anomaly outlook calls for below normal temperatures and near- to slightly above-normal precipitation.

850mb temperatures are forecast to drop into the 0°C to –5°C range by mid-week, resulting in daytime highs dropping towards the low teens and overnight lows likely dipping towards the 0°C mark. By mid-week, frost will be a definite concern across Western Manitoba and into the Red River Valley. The big question here in Winnipeg & the RRV will be exactly how much cloud the lakes produce when the cold air slides over them.

At this point it looks like a brief moderate at the end of the week before another cold blast potentially moves through.