The cold weather is here to stay across Southern Manitoba as a continuous northwesterly flow aloft, thanks to the established vortex over Hudson Bay, continues to pump Arctic air southwards.
Satellite imagery shows much of Manitoba entrenched on the cold side of the Arctic jet while the entire Prairies remains on the cold side of the Polar jet.
While temperatures won’t be as cold as was seen across the Prairies over the weekend thanks to a slight moderation of temperatures as the coldest air rotates out of the Prairies into NW Ontario, daytime highs will still be significantly below the normal[1] temperatures for this time of year.
Monday
-21°C / -25°C
Mainly sunny
Tuesday
-19°C / -27°C
Mixed skies with a chance of flurries
Wednesday
-20°C / -23°C
Mainly sunny
Today will bring mainly sunny skies to Winnipeg with just a few clouds later in the morning and through the afternoon. Skies will likely be a bit cloudier east of Winnipeg in the Red River Valley, but nothing particularly significant is expected in the way of cloud cover as the bulk of it should remain to the north and east of the Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb to around –21°C with fairly light winds which should bring an end to the –40 or colder wind chills early this morning. Expect temperatures to dip to around –24°C tonight with a little more cloud cover moving in.
Tomorrow looks cold again with highs near –20°C or so under mixed skies. A few flurries are possible, particularly through Winnipeg & the eastern half of the Red River Valley. Winds will be a bit breezy out of the northwest at around 20–30km/h which will make it feel a fair bit colder. Skies should clear out tomorrow evening with the winds tapering off as temperatures head to a low of around –27°C.
Wednesday looks like another mainly sunny day with a high near –20°C and winds out of the west at 15–20km/h. The “bigger” story will be on Wednesday night into Thursday morning when a weak system slides across Southern Manitoba, bringing some light snow with it. No significant accumulations are expected, though.
Signs of a Warm-Up in the Long-Range?
There may be a little hope for a reprieve from the cold as long-range forecast models are beginning to show signs that the current pattern may begin to break down next week, allowing some milder air back into the Prairies.
The NAEFS is hinting towards a warm-up towards seasonal to above-seasonal temperatures next week.
It’s still a little early to say for certain what’s going to happen – the long-range outlooks are only slightly hinting towards above normal temperatures. In general, it looks like we should see a trend next week back towards more seasonal temperatures.
The normal daytime highs for Winnipeg in January are really just an average of extremes. The record high temperature for January 5th is 6.7°C set in 2012 while the record minimum high temperature is –30.7°C set last year in 2014. When your spread on daytime highs is 37°C, it’s hard to pin down a “normal” or “seasonal” high. ↩
An Alberta Clipper moving through the province on Friday into Saturday will pack a potent punch – likely the worst storm so far this winter for most places, including Winnipeg – bringing a decent shot of snow alongside strong winds producing significant blowing snow. To cap things off, a bitterly cold air mass will move into the region bringing extremely cold temperatures & wind chill.
Friday
-14°C / -21°C
Early morning flurries, then snow beginning late in the day
Saturday
⇓ -26°C / -32°C
Snow tapering off then clearing; windy & cold
Sunday
-27°C / -33°C
Mainly sunny
Friday will start off mainly cloudy as a brief shot of light snow exits the province. Amounts from this band will be just a couple cm or less and this leading impulse will be nothing compared to what will be moving in later in the day.
Before that, though, skies will become more mixed with temperatures gradually climbing to around –14°C. Winds will remain relatively light until the Alberta Clipper moves into the region tonight.
Snow will push into Southwestern & Parkland Manitoba this afternoon and quickly spread eastwards across the remainder of the province by the evening. Snowfall will be quite intense, with rates reaching as much as 2cm/hr in the heaviest band. The heaviest snow will fall through Friday night and then taper off from west to east through the day on Saturday.
Expected snowfall totals across Southern Manitoba. The heaviest snow is expected to fall within 50km or so on either side of the U.S. border.
By the time the snow tapers off on Saturday, up to 25cm of snow may have fallen through the heaviest band of snow which is centered along the international border and cuts across the Southern Red River Valley. Winnipeg will likely receive on the higher end of 10–15cm of snow while amounts then taper off through the northern Parkland region and central Interlake.
Measuring that snow may be quite difficult, though, as strong northwesterly winds to 40km/h move into the Red River Valley. With all the fresh snow, widespread blowing snow is very likely on area highways with the potential for significant restrictions to visibility. In areas of the southern Red River Valley, we may even see the development of a full-on blizzard with the higher amount of fresh snowfall and slightly stronger winds due to the funnelling of the valley. Driving conditions will likely be quite poor, so be sure to give yourself plenty of additional time if you need to travel and remember to always carry a winter survival kit in your vehicle.
There’s only one story once the snow tapers off on Saturday and skies begin to clear: bitter cold. It’s going to get very, very cold across the entire province with the coldest air mass of the season diving southwards behind the clipper. Saturday will see temperatures slipping through the day to around –26°C which will then plummet down to –32 or –33°C overnight. With winds of 10–20km/h persisting overnight, wind chill values of –40 to –45 will be widespread through Southern Manitoba.[1]
Sunday will bring barely any recovery with temperatures struggling to get to a paltry –27°C. Expect the low on Sunday night to dip back down to –32 or –33°C with wind chills agin in the –40 to –45 range.
No Warmth In The Long-Range
Looking ahead to next week, conditions look dry with little to offer as reprieve from the cold. Daytime highs will moderate towards the –20°C mark, but overnight lows in the low minus-twenties will be sticking around for a while.
The NAEFS 8–14 day temperature anomaly outlook.
Looking even further ahead, there are little in the way of strong signals. There’s about a 50/50 chance of below-seasonal temperatures continuing, but compared to this week, it’s at least a trend towards more seasonal temperatures. It’s not much, but when we’re getting as cold as we will this weekend, I’ll take what I can get.
This will likely result in an extreme cold warning being issued by Environment Canada, as their criteria is a temperature or wind chill colder than –40. ↩
This photo of a funnel cloud was taken just southwest of Winnipeg.
Welcome to our summary of the 2014 thunderstorm season across Southern Manitoba! This post will summarize these statistics and compare this year’s thunderstorm season to the last couple seasons. In case you are curious, a brief explanation of how I gathered these statistics can be obtained by following this link.
Thunderstorm Days
The number of days with thunderstorms across southern Manitoba broken down into 6 regions. Includes the date of first thunderstorms and last thunderstorms.
In total, there were 94 thunderstorm days across southern Manitoba in 2014 (southern Manitoba being defined as the area shaded in the map above). This was slightly higher than in 2013 (89 thunderstorm days) but still much lower than in 2012 (~ 109 thunderstorm days). This is mainly the result of a late spring and thus, a late start to the season in both 2013 and 2014. 2012 featured an early spring with numerous thunderstorm events in March and April. This year, no thunderstorms occurred in March and only 2 thunderstorm days occurred in April. In fact, southeastern, eastern and Interlake portions of southern Manitoba did not see their first thunderstorm until the third or fourth week of May, at least a month later than usual. Winnipeg didn’t get its first thunderstorm until May 20, the 8th latest first thunderstorm on record since 1953.
The distribution of thunderstorm days, as seen in the map above, was fairly uniform across southern Manitoba overall. Similarly to 2012 and 2013, the region east of Lake Winnipeg saw notably less thunderstorm activity.
Interestingly, there was a thundersnow event in January! Although lightning detection products did not record the lightning, lightning was reported by residents west and southwest of Winnipeg on the evening of January 15; more specifically between Carman and Winkler. This was associated with a very strong cold front behind a potent Alberta Clipper. This clipper also brought record winds and high temperatures across the Prairies. Unfortunately, I could not find any data on winter thunderstorm activity in Manitoba historically. The only other occurrence of lightning in January I could find was a report in the Daily Free Press of lightning on January 16, 1876 (Penziwol, 2004). This is not to say that lightning has never occurred in January since then, but that is the only other report I could find. Nonetheless, this year’s thundersnow event was extremely rare for Manitoba.
In Winnipeg, 23 thunderstorm days occurred at the airport in 2014. Although this is the most since 2010, it is still below the normal of ~26–27 thunderstorm days. In fact, we have not had an above normal season since 2007. The last thunderstorm recorded was on September 8, tying for 10th earliest last thunderstorm since 1953. This puts the season at 112 days long, the 5th shortest on record. However, this statistic is a bit misleading. Thunderstorms did occur in southern parts of the city 3 times after September 8, including 2 events in October. I recorded 27 thunderstorm days here in South St Vital this year and the season lasted 156 days.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning Days
The number of days in which severe thunderstorm warnings were issued through 2014 in Manitoba, broken down by forecast region.
In total, there were 34 days with a severe thunderstorm warning issued in southern Manitoba. This is similar to 2012 but much less than in 2013 (45 severe thunderstorm warning days). The first warning was issued on May 24 and the last on September 8, putting the season at 108 days long. This is a tad less than in 2013 (110 days long) and 2012. As has been the case the last few years, southwestern Manitoba saw the most severe thunderstorm warning days in 2014.
Tornadoes
The number of days tornado warnings were issued across Manitoba in 2014, broken down by forecast region.
There were 4 tornado warning days in 2014, half the number in 2013 (8 days) but double the number in 2012 (2 days). The Red River Valley area saw the most. In fact, the warning zone southeast of Winnipeg, which Steinbach is situated in, saw 3 tornado warning days, the highest of all warning zones in Canada this year. However, only one of these warnings actually produced a confirmed tornado (an EF–0 southeast of La Salle on July 26).
From what I could find, 4 EF–0 tornadoes were confirmed in Manitoba this year. However, it is likely that there were more (many go unconfirmed). July 26 was the biggest tornado day of the year with 3 landspout tornadoes confirmed (all EF–0). 2 were in the Interlake near Waterhen and the other was southeast of La Salle.
A tornado might have touched down (unconfirmed) southwest of Winnipeg July 5. Part of the A Weather Moment team (Scott, Matt, Julien & Kyle) watched the storm as it evolved and managed to capture at least 2 funnel clouds. One of these is seen in Matt’s funnel cloud picture at the top of this post. After reporting this funnel to Environment Canada, a tornado warning was issued for the City of Winnipeg.
Monthly Frequency
Thunderstorm-related days per month (thunderstorms, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes) for Southern Manitoba in 2014.
For the first time since I started gathering these statistics in 2010, the busiest month of the year for thunderstorm activity across southern Manitoba was in June. The maximum is typically in July, but this year there was an unusual local minimum in activity in July with just 18 thunderstorm days. Residents in southwestern Manitoba were especially hard hit in June with multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms and rains mid-late month. Over 150 mm of rain fell in the heaviest hit areas in just a period of 2 weeks. 251.6 mm of rain fell in June in Brandon, the rainiest June on record since 1890. 219.8mm of this fell in just the last 12 days of the month. Extensive overland and river flooding occurred as a result, as many of you likely still remember well.
If interested in comparing, follow these links for the 2013 and 2012 graphs: 2013, 2012.
Reference Cited
Penziwol, Shelley. (2004). Storm Signals: A History of Weather In Manitoba. Great Plains Publications. Winnipeg, Manitoba. Page 3.
Manitobans can enjoy slight relief from the bitter cold that has been in place the last few days as more seasonal temperatures are in place thanks to a fairly large low pressure system passing through Hudson Bay that has dragged the warm air all the way east from the Rocky Mountains. Unfortunately, the milder weather will be short lived as a series of cold fronts sweep southwards into the United States ushering the colder air back into the region.
Wednesday
-11°C / -17°C
Mixed skies with a slight chance of flurries
Thursday
-14°C / -17°C
Increasing cloud
Friday
-15°C / -19°C
Partly cloudy
Temperatures will climb to around –11°C today with mixed skies as a warm front slides through the region from the northwest. There will be a slight chance of flurries, particularly first thing in the morning and again in the evening into the overnight period, but otherwise it will be a seasonally nice day with westerly winds at 30–40km/h. Expect temperatures to drop to around –17°C tonight.
Thursday will be a bit of an in between day; a weak cold front passing through will bring daytime highs cooler than Wednesday – somewhere around –14°C or so – and a fairly sunny start to the day. By the afternoon, more cloud should begin working its way in from the west alongside the next low approaching from Saskatchewan. Little in the way of snow is expected here on Thursday or Thursday night and winds will be relatively light. Temperatures will dip back down to –17°C once again on Thursday night.
Friday will be the sunniest day of the second half of the week. A slight chance of some morning flurries will quickly clear out as we head to a high of around –15°C with light winds. However, a storm is brewing, and by Friday evening an Alberta clipper will be making its way into Southern Manitoba, set to pack a compact wallop as it moves through Friday night and Saturday.
End-of-Week Alberta Clipper Brings Winter Storm to Manitoba
An Alberta Clipper is forecast to track across Southern Manitoba Friday night into Saturday, bringing with it a significant shot of snow, strong winds, and then a plummet back into frigid Arctic air.
Note: Alberta clippers are compact systems whose impact depends significantly on their track. As we’re still several days out from this system, please take the following as just general guidance and remember that with a slight change in track, significant changes in the weather could be seen for any one location.
Snow will spread eastwards into southwestern Manitoba and the Parkland region on Friday evening, progressing across the remainder of the province through the evening hours. A relatively sharp deformation zone will set up across the Parkland & Interlake regions, limiting the northward extent of the snow. While many regions will see accumulating snow, the greatest amounts will be along the Trans-Canada corridor and the western escarpment of the Red River Valley.
First-guess snowfall amounts for the upcoming storm system this weekend.
By the time the snow stops on Saturday evening, around 10–15cm of snow may have fallen in a large swath encompassing much of the Trans-Canada corridor and areas south to the U.S. border. An area of higher snowfall will likely develop somewhere near the US border, perhaps just south into North Dakota, depending significantly on where & when the system pivots and begins heading E/NE instead of SE. In the core of heaviest snowfall, as much as 15–25cm of snowfall looks possible. Much of the Parkland and southern Interlake will see between 4–8cm, with amounts tapering off fairly quickly north of that.
In addition to the snow, this system will have fairly strong winds associated with it. Ahead of the low, easterly to northeasterly winds will strengthen to a gusty 30–40km/h. As the system passes through, winds will strengthen out of the northwest to around 50km/h with gusts as high as 70–75km/h. The strong northwesterly winds coupled with the ample fresh snow will likely produce blizzard conditions and make travel dangerous on Saturday. If you have travel plans, make a plan B in case this forecast happens to be right.
Temperatures will reach a high around –15°C on Saturday and then plummet to around –30°C on Saturday night with wind chill values near –45. Sunday looks clear and bitterly cold with a high of only around –26°C coupled with 20–30km/h winds that will produce wind chill values in the –35 to –40 range. If these wind chill values materalize, we’ll likely see extreme cold warnings issued for much of Southern Manitoba through the weekend.[1]
As mentioned, there is potentially significant variability to this forecast and what I’ve presented is the current most likely scenario. I’ll be keeping tabs on this system through the week and provide updates in the comments below and another full look at it in Friday morning’s blog post.
If the extreme cold occurs while blizzard conditions are ongoing, the blizzard warning would “include” the extreme cold. ↩
