Mixed Bag Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

A bit of a grab bag of unexceptional weather is on it’s way for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley as the cold air’s grip loosens ever so slightly before returning to the region, bringing flurries with it.

Wednesday
-18°C / -25°C
Mixed skies; chance of flurries.

Thursday
-12°C / -20°C
Warmer; cloudy end to the day with some flurries.

Friday
-14°C / -23°C
Mixed skies; chance of flurries.

We’ll see mixed skies today as patchy low cloud continues to stream southwards out of the Arctic across the Prairies. Any of this cloud has the slight chance of producing some fairly insignificant flurries. Our temperature will remain cool today with a high of around -18°C and will drop to around -25°C tonight.

Tomorrow will bring warmer weather as a fairly strong low pressure system moving over Southampton Island manages to push some slightly milder air through the Northern Prairies and southeastwards into Southern Manitoba. We’ll see temperatures climb up to a near-normal high of -12°C or so with mixed skies before the clouds thicken up through the afternoon and some flurries slide into the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba. No significant accumulations are expected.

Friday will bring mixed skies once again with a chance of scattered light flurries. Temperatures will only cool off slightly thanks to the cloud cover and we’ll see a high of around -15 or -14°C. Temperatures will drop off to around -23°C or so overnight under mainly clear skies.

Continued Below-Normal Temperatures

The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook is beginning to show signs of near-normal temperatures returning.
The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook is beginning to show signs of near-normal temperatures returning.

Unfortunately, it’s still looking like below-normal temperatures[1] will persist through Southern Manitoba for at least the next week or two. A persistent northerly/northwesterly flow is showing no signs at all of breaking down and will continually reinforce the Arctic air in our region, maintaining the cool weather. While we may see short-lived near-normal breaks, the overall trend will be decidedly cool through the next two weeks. No significant snowfall events are expected through the next week.

Once we hit the 1.5 to 2 week mark, though, things are starting to look like they might begin to moderate a little bit and we might climb a lot closer to normal for mid-February. Any warm-up would likely mean a return to snowier weather as well, so we may see a stormier end to the month than we’ll see through the first half.

  1. The normal daytime high at this time of year in Winnipeg is -10°C. The normal overnight low is -21°C.  ↩

More of the Same

Brad Leave a comment

This week will feature more of the same cold weather we’ve seen lately. I’m sure you’re about as enthused to read that as I was to write it.

Early Week Outlook

Monday
-15°C / -30°C
Mix of Sun and Cloud
Tuesday
-18°C / -29°C
Mainly Sunny
Wednesday
-18°C / -26°C
Mainly Sunny

Today will feature slightly below normal temperatures[1]. Highs will be in the mid to upper minus teens in southern Manitoba with fairly light winds. As a result, the wind chill won’t be a big factor.

Tuesday will be a bit cooler than Monday, but not by a whole lot. Temperatures will sit around -20C with wind remaining relatively light once again.

Wednesday will be close to a carbon-copy of Tuesday. The wind will be a bit stronger on Wednesday though, so you may notice the wind chill factor a bit more – but values aren’t expected to reach “extreme” [2] criteria.

Long Range

The long range forecast calls for continued cold weather.

The long range forecast calls for continued cold weather.

The long range forecast continues to look bleak. Models suggest below-normal temperatures will last through most of the first half of February. There has been some rumblings that the second half of February may feature warmer weather, but that remains to be seen. For the time being, we will remain locked in a cold pattern.

  1. The normal high for this time of year is -10°C and the normal low is -21°C. ↩
  2. Extreme being -40 or colder ↩

Elsewhere in Weather News: February 1st, 2014

Matthieu Leave a comment

Southeast US Paralyzed by Storm

On Tuesday a large trough was in place over the eastern half of the US. The longwave trough extended all the way down to the southeastern states and brought adverse weather conditions along with it. This trough did not produce the typical severe weather the southeast would see around this time of the year; thunderstorms and flooding rain, but produced an event featuring snow, ice pellets and freezing rain.

Arctic air flooded in behind the cold front all the way down from Texas to the Gulf of Mexico to Florida, providing good environment for freezing precipitation right behind the front. Freezing rain fell as far south as Pensacola in the Florida panhandle where over 200km of interstate had to be shut down because it was deemed to be too dangerous for travel. The last time Pensacola saw snow was 2010 – it melted the same day it fell. In comparison, Atlanta saw a trace of snow in 2008. This time around the city received 6cm, which snarled traffic on the commute back home. Officials decided to not cancel schools and students were stranded in schools and buses overnight until the next morning. Commuters were in the same situation, being stranded on roads overnight as many commuters are not accustomed to winter weather leading to many accidents. The sub-freezing temperatures across the Deep South also wreaked havoc, bursting water pipes above ground.

Wednesday morning surface temperatures. Freezing temperatures can be seen reaching all the way down into Mexico and the Deep South. (Source: Twisterdata)
Wednesday morning surface temperatures. Freezing temperatures can be seen reaching all the way down into Mexico and the Deep South. (Source: Twisterdata)

Medium range models continue to show cold air entrenched across the Canadian Prairies and most of the United States, even infiltrating into the Deep South again next week. A persistent ridge off the West Coast, partially associated with the well above normal temperatures in the North Pacific, can be blamed for the persistent troughing and Arctic air over Canada and US the past few weeks. Longer range models do show the ridge eventually breaking down in a week but this remains to be seen as it’s still a long ways out.

Below-Normal Temperatures Continue

Brad Leave a comment

Those looking for a balmy reprieve from winter are going to have to look into buying plane tickets because there is no end in sight to the below-normal temperatures that have settled in over the region. A very stable pattern has developed which anchors us into a north/northwesterly flow and will continue to tap cold Arctic air and funnel it southwards over the Prairies.

Friday
-18°C / -25°C
Mixed skies.

Saturday
-18°C / -27°C
A few clouds.

Sunday
-17°C / -25°C
A few clouds.

Quiet Weather Ahead

A very quiet few days are ahead of us with little in the way of active weather on tap. A weak cold front is pushing southwards through the province today, and while it’s possible some snow happens, if it were to it wouldn’t really amount to more than a few flakes and definitely wouldn’t accumulate to anything. Here in Winnipeg and areas south the best chance for that is overnight, but it’s so minimal that I don’t really feel it bears any more mention than.

After that, there’s no snow expected through the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures will generally sit around -18°C for highs and -25°C for lows with variations a couple degrees off those points. Winds are also expected to be light with nothing climbing over 20-25km/h through the next few days.

Cold Weather Here to Stay

While it’s not nearly as cold as it was through December or many parts of this month, our temperatures are still noticeably below the “seasonal”[1] -11°C for this time of year. Thanks to that persistent northerly flow thanks to a complex of lows anchored over Hudson Bay, it doesn’t look like much change is in sight.

The NAEFS is forecasting below-normal temperatures through the 8-14 day timeframe.
The NAEFS is forecasting below-normal temperatures through the 8-14 day timeframe.

The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) continues to forecast below-normal temperatures in the 1-2 week timeframe; unfortunately for us, this outlook tends to be fairly accurate most of the time. At this rate, it means that we’ll see little hope for improvement at least until the middle of February.

So, do what Winnipegers are great at doing: make lemonade. Enjoy the fact there won’t be much wind, bundle up and get out there!

  1. It should probably be noted that – especially in January – the “normal” temperatures tend to be averages between the extremes thanks to our continental climate.  ↩