Warmer and Unsettled Weekend Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

Temperatures will finally push towards seasonal values this weekend as a warmer air mass pushes into Southern Manitoba from the Western Prairies. Daytime highs are set to climb into the mid-single digits which will bring the warmest temperatures since March 14th of this year when we managed to struggle our way to +4.0°C. Tagging alongside the milder temperatures will be unsettled conditions with multiple chances for precipitation through the next few days.

Friday

Friday
0°C / -5°C
Mainly sunny.

Today will be quite a pleasant day with mainly sunny skies and a high near 0°C. A ridge of high pressure will keep the winds light through the day as well. There may be a few cloudy periods this morning as we clean out any remnant cloud from yesterday’s system, but otherwise there should be plenty of sunshine.

Later today will see the approach of a warm front tied to a low pressure system tracking through the northern Prairies. Winds will increase out of the south to around 30km/h tonight as the warm front approaches. Thanks to the wind and some cloud pushing in later in the night, we’ll drop to only around -5°C.

Saturday

Tomorrow has the potential to be a bit of a messy start to the week. The warm front will be pushing it’s way through early in the day, bringing with it the potential for some snow or freezing rain.

Winnipeg forecast sounding for Saturday morning from the NAM.
Winnipeg forecast sounding for Saturday morning from the NAM.

This forecast sounding shows the development of a small layer of above-freezing air (AFL) above a below-freezing layer of air at the surface. The AFL doesn’t look very deep, so freezing rain is far from a sure thing as the balance between melting snow and reinforcement of warm air will be a delicate one dependant on how intense the precipitation is.

Saturday
7°C / -5°C
Cloudy with chance of flurries or freezing rain in the morning, then clearing.

Depending on whether or not the precipitation manages to build far enough south to reach the Red River Valley is the primary unknown; if it does reach us then there’s a chance it will fall as freezing rain instead of snow. Whatever it decides to fall out of the sky as, though, it will be fairly short-lived and confined to the morning.

After the warm front pushes through in the morning, skies will begin to clear up and the temperature will begin climbing towards a high of 6 or 7°C. Saturday will be the warmest day in Winnipeg since the temperature hit 10.3°C on November 13th last year. Winds look to be light through the day.

Temperatures will drop to around -5°C once again on Saturday night with light winds.

Sunday

Sunday
3°C / -9°C
Mainly sunny.

Sunday will be a slightly cooler albeit still pleasant day. Winds will be relatively light out of the south as we head to a high temperature of 3°C. An incoming low pressure system will spread cloud into the Red River Valley late in the day and bring a chance of some flurries through the evening and overnight periods.

All in all it will be a fairly pleasant weekend without too much wind and some mild temperatures. Aside from a few brief chances for precipitation, it might actually feel quite spring-like out there! Enjoy!

A Quiet Return to Form

Brad Leave a comment

After an exciting start to the week thanks to a Colorado Low that brought anywhere from 20-50cm of snow through portions of Southern Manitoba, North Dakota, Minnesota and Ontario, conditions are poised to return to near normal by the end of the week.

A low pressure system will bring seasonal temperatures for the weekend in Southern Manitoba.
A low pressure system will bring seasonal temperatures for the weekend in Southern Manitoba.

A west-to-southwesterly flow aloft will slowly bring warmer air into our region and allow our temperatures to finally snap out of the 10-15°C below normal regime Southern Manitoba has been stuck in for the past week and push towards seasonal values for this time of year. The considerable snow pack still remaining will limit our ability to warm above 0°C without any strong push of warm air as any extra energy the sun is giving at this time of year will be going into melting snow, not warming air.

Wednesday
-1°C / -13°C
Sunny.

Thursday
-1°C / -10°C
Becoming mainly cloudy. Chance of flurries.

Friday
+1°C / -8°C
Clearing.

A weak ridge of high pressure will keep skies clear and winds light today as temperatures climb to around -1°C. Temperatures will drop to around -13°C tonight with increasing cloudiness as a weak inverted trough extending northwards from a Colorado Low tracking through the Central Plains pushes into our region.

Thursday will be mostly cloudy – perhaps a few sunny breaks – with a slight chance for some flurries. There will be more organized light snow in southwestern Manitoba, perhaps a cm or two, but the inverted trough will slowly weaken and fizzle out as it pushes towards the Red River Valley. By the time it reaches Winnipeg, it seems likely that all that will remain is very disorganized and light flurry activity. Temperatures will climb to around -1°C again and drop to a low near -10°C overnight under mostly cloudy skies.

On Friday, the day will likely start cloudy but clear out through the morning leaving a mainly sunny afternoon. Temperatures will manage to squeak above the freezing mark to +1°C or so, making for quite a pleasant afternoon. Expect an overnight low around -8°C on Friday night under mainly clear skies.

Mild Weekend on the Way

Things look set to bring the warmest air of the year into the region for the weekend. A fairly strong low pressure system is forecast to track through the northern Prairies, dragging mild Pacific air eastwards as it goes. A warm front looks to push through on Saturday afternoon, bringing with it a slight chance for some flurry or shower activity. Temperatures will climb into the low single digits with breezy southerly winds in the 30-40km/h range.

Sunday will be perhaps the nicest day we’ve seen in a long, long time. The Red River Valley will be smack dab in the middle of the warmest air and temperatures will climb to a more seasonal 5 or 6°C before a cold front pushes through in the evening.

Unfortunately, it appears we’ll see a return to below-normal temperatures after that. Exactly how cold is uncertain, however we’ll likely see plenty of “below normal” due to the extensive snow pack that still has a long way to go until it’s melted. On the bright side, it won’t be long until “below normal” will still be above freezing…

March to end with a Bang

Brad Leave a comment

This March not only came in like a lion, it will also go out like a lion. A major winter storm will slam the American Red River Valley and parts of south-eastern Manitoba today. Read on for the details.

A Colorado Low will bring heavy snow to parts of southern Manitoba and the northern United States on Monday
A Colorado Low will bring heavy snow to parts of southern Manitoba and the northern United States on Monday

Monday

Monday
-9°C / -15°C
Snow, heavy in some areas. Windy.

A Colorado Low will bring heavy snow and high winds to the Red River Valley and south-eastern Manitoba today. Wind speeds will range from 40-50km/h gusting to 50-70km/h. Some areas may even see winds as high as 60km/h gusting to 80km/h for a period of time. This will produce blizzard conditions in open areas of the Red River Valley and south-eastern Manitoba. The map below illustrates the expected snowfall totals.

Expected storm-total snowfall amounts.
Expected storm-total snowfall amounts.

Travel will become very difficult, if not impossible from points south of Winnipeg and into the American Red River Valley as the day progresses. Highway closures are likely through the day, with some roadways possibly staying closed until Tuesday. Roads that remain open will be in poor shape as well, so those traveling today may need to reconsider their plans.

This storm will wind down on Tuesday as the snow ends and the wind begins to decrease. However, those areas that saw the heaviest snow will have to deal with large snow drifts on Tuesday. Travel will be difficult if not impossible, particularly in the American Red River Valley, on most of Monday and likely into Tuesday as well. Luckily this storm should signal the beginning of the end of the seemingly endless winter we’ve endured.

Tuesday

Tuesday
-8°C / -22°C
Mainly Sunny

Tuesday will be a much calmer day in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will warm into the minus single digits, but a north-west wind will linger as Monday’s storm departs. At least it will be decent shoveling weather…

Wednesday

Wednesday
-4°C / -18°C
Mainly Sunny

Wednesday will see further improvement over Tuesday, as temperatures climb into the low to mid minus single digits. That should be good enough for some light melting of snow off dark surfaces – melting that can’t come soon enough for most people.

Long Range

The long range forecast is looking good for a change. Most models suggest we’ll see near normal weather in the short to medium term, which means high temperatures in the mid positive single digits. That should help to gradually start wearing down our snow pack.

Elsewhere in Weather News: March 29th, 2014

Matthieu Leave a comment

Atlantic Storm Slams Canadian Maritimes

This past week a strong Nor’easter affected the Canadian Maritimes which brought large amounts of snow as well as record-breaking wind gusts. The dynamic system that started off as a weak low off Florida’s east coast and quickly deepened, over 40mb in 24 hours, over the Gulf Stream. By the time the low had traveled up the East Coast and reached the Canadian Maritimes, it had peaked in strength at 955mb. Although this system, a cold low, was much different dynamically than a hurricane, it brought extreme wind gusts of category 3 strength; 186km/h gust in Wreckhouse, NL (breaking the old record of 180km/h). Widespread 100km/h gusts were reported across both Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Impressive picture of the Nor'easter just before the storm reached maximum intensity. (Source: NOAA)
Impressive picture of the Nor’easter before the storm reached maximum intensity. (Source: NOAA)

The forecast proved to be a tough one, especially along Nova Scotia’s coast, where warm air coming off the Atlantic Ocean had an impact on the snow amounts. Widespread amounts of 40cm were reported in both Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Halifax’s snowfall total, which was affected by the warm air coming off the Atlantic, only received 21cm. The highest total out of all the major Maritime cities was Charlottetown, PEI, which reported an incredible 53cm from the storm and experienced snowfall rates as high as 10cm per hour. Unsurprisingly, about 20,000 people were out of power at some point in the Maritimes and most flights in Halifax were cancelled on Wednesday. The Confederation Bridge connecting PEI to the mainland was also closed, due to the strong winds.

Only to add salt to the wound, the Maritimes are expecting another messy weather system to affect the region Sunday night into Monday. It will bring a mixed bag of precipitation to the region, depending on proximity to the Atlantic Coast; rain and freezing rain can be expected near the coast such as in Halifax. Further inland into New Brunswick, ice pellets/freezing rain transitioning to heavy snow will fall. The precipitation amounts will not be as high as the previous system, but nonetheless significant, as models are snowing that conservatively 15cm could fall in the snowfall region and 20mm of rain near the coast.