Conditions will remain cold to start the week…and just think we’ve only got another 3-4 months of this weather yet to come!
This Week
Monday Increasing Cloudiness. Chance of Flurries. -7°C / -15°C
Tuesday Mainly Sunny -13°C / -22°C
Wednesday Mainly cloudy. Slight Chance of Flurries. -10°C / -12°C
The weather today won’t offer a very pleasant start to the week. High temperatures will be in the low single digits, with a brisk north-westerly wind, making it feel much colder than it actually is. There may be a few flurries as well – have you heard enough?
Tuesday will remain cold, with temperatures in the minus teens. The wind will be a bit lighter though, which is a bit of consolation.
We should see a southerly flow develop in Southern Manitoba on Wednesday, perhaps allowing temperatures to approach the -10C mark. A weak weather system may also bring some flurries on Wednesday.
Severe flooding has been taking place in Sardinia, Italy this past week causing residents to rush for higher ground. Sardinia is one of Italy’s islands located in the Mediterranean Sea; about 1.7 million Italians reside here. An upper level low drew in moist air from the Mediterranean Sea and spun just off the coast of Sardinia, causing for some significant flooding on the island. Rainfall totals generally ranged between 35 and 50mm on the island, which is over half of their monthly total for November.
Severe flooding in the city of Uras, on the island of Sardinia. (Source: AP)
As this fell in a span of about 24 hours, sewers were unable to handle these large volumes of water in that short period of time. In some areas water levels reached about three meters, causing roads and bridges to be washed away. As of Friday night 18 fatalities had been reported. Several waterspouts and brief tornadoes had also been spawned by this system off of Italy’s coast and on the mainland.
Tornadoes Rip through US Midwest
In last week’s post of EIWN the risk for severe storms affecting the Midwest US had been briefly talked about. The event that occurred on Sunday was a fairly significant event; the moderate risk talked about in last week’s post had been upgraded to a high risk on Sunday – a risk only issued once or twice by the SPC when major severe weather events are imminent. This severe weather event followed up with all the hype ahead of it. In total, 106 tornado reports were received and 74 tornadoes were confirmed. Two of these were classified as EF-4 strength and 33 classified of EF-2 strength and higher, making November 17th a significant tornado outbreak in the Midwest. There were also numerous (400+) wind damage reports scattered from Iowa to New Jersey, as expected with the high shear environment on that day. One of the strongest tornadoes of the day – an EF-4 ripped through the town of Washington, Ill., where some houses were completely ripped apart by the twister. Death toll from the outbreak is at eight but could have been significantly higher if not for the good forecasting and swift warning issuance by NWS.
Map of all the warnings and watches issued on the 17th. Tornado watches/warnings in red and severe thunderstorm watches/warnings in blue. Polygons are the warnings. Click on image to enlarge. (Source: SPC)
The chilly, below normal, temperatures are set to continue through the beginning of this weekend. There is a glimmer of hope though as a clipper system is expected to bring a bit of reprieve from the bone-chilling temperatures towards the end of the weekend, but this “warmer” weather will be short-lived.
Arctic high sliding down into Southern Manitoba on Friday afternoon.
Friday
Friday -12°C / -22°C Winds gusty, clouds clearing in the evening.
The day will start off as overcast, if not for lingering flurries still affecting Winnipeg from a weak system that passed last night. Winds will be stiff today coming from the north-west in the 25-30km/h range as the high pressure pushes south. Tonight you will want to make sure to crank the heat up as the low temperatures will bottom out around -22°C in Southern Manitoba, and even colder in the southwest corner of the province as the Arctic high slides down.
Saturday
Saturday -15°C / -18°C Winds around 10km/h and mainly sunny skies. Cloud moving in overnight.
Saturday will be cold again. The Arctic high that pushed down will now be centered near the international border, which should keep us mainly cloud-free throughout the day but brisk temperatures will remain in place. Winds won’t be too strong from the west, perhaps 10km/h switching to southerly overnight. Lows won’t be dropping to levels as low as Friday night thanks to some cloud cover moving in associated with an approaching system.
Sunday
Sunday -4°C / -11°C Could be a few flurries, winds south becoming west in the evening.
For Sunday there is a chance for some flurry activity as a clipper system slides by. Accumulations shouldn’t be higher than a few centimeters for the Red River Valley, but higher accumulations to the northeast of Winnipeg are possible. High temperatures for Sunday won’t be as cold as Saturday thanks to some warmer air aloft associated with the clipper but don’t be deceived, winds will be quite gusty, especially in the afternoon.
Looking ahead into the next work week there does not appear to be too much significant weather, once again – both the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) and the NAEFS point towards near average temperatures. In addition to that he models don’t show any significant systems, at least for the beginning of next week.
Well, it had to happen eventually. The first real shot of winter is on it’s way as very cold Arctic air barrels southwards through the Prairies this week. The bright side? It should be relatively short-lived.
RDPS surface temperatures on Thursday morning show temperatures dipping down to –30°C over extreme SW Manitoba on Thursday morning.
Today marks the beginning of the big cool-down for us. A cold front that passed through overnight bringing in northwesterly winds and the leading edge of the cold air. Our temperature will remain fairly steady near about –7°C through the day with mostly sunny skies and a breezy northwesterly wind at 30–50km/h. We’ll see some increasing cloud towards the evening hours which will bring a slight chance of some flurries tonight as a weak disturbance slides through the Dakotas and southeastern Manitoba. Temperatures will dip to around –15 or –16°C tonight as colder air continues to infiltrate southwards.
Wednesday → -7°C / -15°C Cool and breezy. Chance of flurries tonight.
Thursday -14°C / -19°C Sunny and cold.
Friday -14°C / -23°C Chance of a morning flurry then sunny and cold.
Thursday will bring mainly sunny skies and cold weather as we climb to only around –14°C. The winds will be lighter which will help a little bit. Even more cold air is on it’s way, though. We’ll drop to around –19°C on Thursday night, but some clouds will build into the Red River Valley overnight into Friday morning as another weak disturbance dives southwards through Manitoba, bringing yet more cold air with it. We’ll see a very slight chance of a light flurry or two with the passage of this system, but it will be much more a “cold air bringer” than a snow-maker.
Friday will see mainly sunny skies, save for the possible clouds in the morning, and we’ll see temperatures rebound to around –15°C. Bitterly cold air will begin working it’s way in through the evening hours, though, and we’ll see our temperature drop all the way to –22 or –23°C on Friday night. Winds will be light, but it will likely still be quite easy to hit a –30 wind chill, so be sure to bundle up if you need to be out.
Fortunately, it doesn’t look like the cold weather will be here for long. Warmer air will be pushing eastwards across the Prairies quickly behind this system and we should see temperatures moderate back to the mid-minus-single-digits by the end of the weekend.
Winter Survival
With the first snow under our belt and the first shot of very cold weather on the way, it’s a good time to bring up winter survival. It’s certainly no joke and things that are minor inconveniences in warmer months – such as your car breaking down on the highway – can easily become life or death situations in winter time.
One of the first steps is making sure you have a winter survival kit in your car. They’re very easy to put together (you can also buy them an many retailers including Canadian Tire and CAA Manitoba) and can make the difference between life and death in some winter situations. To make your winter survival kit, find something like a small duffel bag or other bag you can ensure is sealed shut (e.g. snaps or zippers) and put in:
Ice scraper and brush
Flashlight and extra batteries
Booster cables
Shovel and tow rope
Flares or other signal aids
Sand or kitty litter
Candles and coffee tin (to
warm hands, heat a drink or use as an emergency light)
Matches/lighter (in a waterproof bag)
Blankets/warm clothing
Granola bars, candy, sugar cubes
First aid kit
Compass
Hatchet or axe
Cellular phone
Methyl hydrate (fuel line de-icing)
Traction mats
Cloth or roll of paper towels
Small fire extinguisher
Reflective vest
Not all of these need to be present for a basic winter survival kit; most important are ways to stay warm, visible, fed and safe.
The CAA has an excellent brochure available going over some winter driving tips.
Our RADAR Viewer can be very useful in tracking snow.
Also keep in mind that even if it’s not snowing, strong northerly or southerly winds in the Red River Valley tend to produce significant blowing snow on any west/east running roads and highways. I’ve had more than one trip to Altona that has had a beautiful sunny drive on Highway 75 turn into a dangerous, slow crawl through near-zero visibility after turning west onto Highway 14.
Lastly, one of the biggest dangers cold weather has on you is how it impacts your body. One of the primary things that is affected when your body’s core temperature drops is your ability to make decisions.
The cold remains a mystery, more prone to fell men than women, more lethal to the thin and well muscled than to those with avoirdupois, and least forgiving to the arrogant and the unaware.
Outside magazine did an absolutely excellent article about freezing to death. It’s superbly written and will help you understand what happens as your core body temperature drops. Even if you have an idea, give the article a read because it’s a phenomenal piece of educational writing.
Hopefully you never find yourself in a situation where you actually need to use any of this advice. It never hurts to be prepared, though. Here in Southern Manitoba we live in one of the harshest winter climates out there and all it takes is a few simple measures to make sure you’re ready for it. And, as I always mention, if there’s a significant winter storm and your travel plans are flexible, it’s always wiser to wait it out than push through it.
I hope this little section offers some help and that you can all stay out of the wind, safe and warm.
