More Cold Weather on the Way

While you may have fond memories of the 20°C weather we were having at this time last year, spring-like weather looks to be a long way off as a low pressure system deepening in Alberta will usher below-seasonal temperatures into the Prairies in it’s wake as it moves through our region tomorrow.

12hr. precipitation totals from the GDPS

12hr. precipitation accumulations from the GDPS for Thursday night as snow moves across southern Manitoba.
Wednesday

Increasing cloudiness.
-7°C / -10°C

The warm front associated with this system will move towards the Red River Valley this afternoon bringing with it increasing cloud cover and a breezy southerly wind. By late this afternoon the Red River Valley will be mainly cloudy with a southerly wind at around 30km/h and we’ll have climbed to a temperature of about –7°C. There will be a slight chance for some light flurries in Winnipeg and areas south this evening with the passage of the warm front, but meager moisture along the front combined with very dry air being advected into the RRV from the ridge of high pressure to our east will likely mean that most of the snow developed by the front will evaporate in the dry air before it hits the ground. If any organized snow does manage to develop, amounts will be insignificant as the snow will be light and short-lived. Temperatures will only drop to about –10°C under cloudy skies tonight as we sit in the warm sector before the cold front sweeps through.

Thursday & Friday

Thursday

Increasing cloud with evening flurries. 1-4cm expected.
-5°C / -15°C
Friday

Clearing.
-12°C / -22°C

Skies will briefly clear out on Thursday morning before more clouds move in midday in advance of the approaching cold front. Temperatures will climb up to around –5°C with light winds. The cold front associated with this system will begin to push it’s way through the Red River Valley in the evening and will bring some snow along with it. The snow should start a little later on Thursday evening and let up early Friday morning. Accumulations will not be very significant with only 2–4cm expected to be maximum amounts across the RRV. There’s a slight chance that some areas close to the U.S. border such as Morden, Gretna, Altona and Emerson, may see closer to 5cm as the bulk of the snowfall associated with this front is expected to fall in North Dakota and the slightly higher amounts may brush the extreme southern Red River Valley.

On Friday, we’ll see clearing skies as an Arctic ridge begins working into the Prairies. Temperatures will be quite cool for mid-March with daytime highs only hitting –12 or –13*°C, a whole 6–8°C below seasonal.

Weekend at a Glance

Saturday will be a near carbon-copy of Friday with sunny skies and a cool daytime high of around –11°C. Current indications for Sunday show a strong potential for a potent Alberta Clipper system to race along the U.S. border and spread snow through the Red River Valley by Sunday afternoon. It’s fairly early to focus too much on details, but forecasts currently indicate that 5–10cm of snow is quite possible from Winnipeg & the Trans-Canada highway south throug the RRV to the border. We’ll have more details on this system in our post later this week.

Fairly Normal Start to the Week

This week will start out with fairly typical conditions for this time of year. No significant weather is expected.

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GEM-Regional predicted precipitation on Monday

Monday

Monday
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Flurries
-4°C / -7°C

Monday will be a cloudy day, with a good chance of flurries. These flurries will be fairly disorganized in nature, but could amount to a couple of centimetres in many areas. Models do suggest that some localized areas could see close to 5cm by the time this area of snow completely dissipates on Tuesday morning. However, confidence is very low in terms of predicting which areas might be in for these slightly heavier amounts. As such, I’ll just suggest that any location in Southern Manitoba does stand a small chance of seeing close to 5cm if heavier periods of snow get stuck over the area. Temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid minus single digits in most of Southern Manitoba. Parts of western Manitoba may get up around the freezing mark as the wind there will switch to westerly, giving a downslope flow.

Tuesday and Wedensday

Tuesday
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Mix of Sun and Cloud. Chance of Flurries.
-8°C / -15°C
Wednesday
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Mainly Sunny
-4°C / -7°C

Tuesday is a bit of a tricky forecast, albeit in a non-threatening kind of way. It looks like we may get stuck in low-level cloud and possible light flurries through the day. Alternatively, skies may clear and it could be a fairly bright and non-snowy kind of day. In either case, high temperatures will be in the mid or upper minus single digits with a breezy north-westerly wind.

Wednesday should see sunny skies return. Unfortunately, temperatures will remain stuck just below zero, as a stiff southerly flow prevents strong mixing and maximum temperature rises. As a result, we’ll see high temperatures once again in the low to mid minus single digits.

Long Range

The long-range still doesn’t look very spring-like unfortunately. Even worse than that, models continue to hint at a stormy pattern returning to southern Manitoba towards mid-March. If you’re hoping for spring, you’d better cross your fingers that a renewed storm track through our area brings rain, rather than more snow!

Elsewhere in Weather News: March 9th, 2013

Australian Waters Remain Active

This past week, Australia and its surrounding waters have remained active as yet another cyclone has spun up – this time in the Coral Sea. Cyclone Sandy, currently located about 1,200km north-east of Queensland, Australia, is headed in an easterly direction with sustained category one hurricane winds of 120km/h. The cyclone is too far off coast to adversely affect the state of Queensland at this time.

Sea surface temperatures

Sea surface temperatures with forecast track/intensity and cone of uncertainty (purple) as of Friday night. (Source: CIMSS)

Cyclone Sandy’s route is expected to shift to a south-easterly direction this Saturday but there is much uncertainty as to its destination after the forecasted three-day track. Almost all models agree that Queensland will be spared from this storm, but the island of New Caledonia is still at risk for a direct landfall. This landfall could have a significant impact on New Caledonia as Sandy is expected to continue to strengthen. Before the cyclone weakens, there is a good possibility that it attains a category four level with sustained winds of approximately 180km/h due to sea surface temperatures being very warm (29°C). If the storm does manage to avoid New Caledonia by taking a southerly track, it’s likely that it will die off in the Tasman Sea and not affect populated areas.

Shear

Shear values in yellow, as of Friday night. Low shear environment will contribute to Sandy’s intensification. (Source: CIMSS)

Australia’s cyclone season runs from November 1st to April 30th. Currently they are at the peak of the cyclone season. On average, 11 cyclones affect Australia per year and the tally so far this year (including Sandy) has reached 8 cyclones – a normal count for this time of the year.

Quiet Weekend Ahead

The weather will be fairly quiet this weekend as no significant weather systems are expected to track through the region.

Friday

Mix of sun and cloud.
-5°C / -10°C
Saturday

Mix of sun and cloud, slight chance of a flurry.
-5°C / -15°C
Sunday

Mainly sunny.
-10°C / -14°C

We’ll see a mix of sun and cloud today as temperatures climb up to around 5°C as a weak low pressure system exits the province and some cloud begins streaming up ahead of a Colorado Low expected to track through the Dakotas and Minnesota. Temperatures will drop close to –10°C tonight under mostly cloudy skies.

We’ll see a mix of sun and cloud on Saturday as we sit on the northern fringe of the Colorado Low passing through the states. There’s a very slight chance of some scattered light flurries, but it’s very unlikely should any develop that they’ll end up producing any accumulating snowfall. Temperatures will once again climb to around –5°C and drop down to around –15°C Saturday night as skies clear with the Colorado Low moving off towards Southern Ontario.

Sunday will be the coolest day we’ve had in a while. While earlier in the week it looked as if it would be quite mild by weekend’s end, it turns out that the Colorado Low will pull down cooler Arctic across Southern Manitoba. Highs will climb to –8°C under mainly sunny skies.