Warm With More Snow on the Way

Brad Leave a comment

Southern Manitoba is busy cleaning up from the wallop Monday’s storm dealt with some communities digging out from under 50+cm of snow. Unfortunately, while temperatures will remain quite pleasant, another shot of snow is on the way later this week but with much less snow for most areas.

24hr. Precipitation Amounts from 12Z Thursday morning to 12Z Friday morning

Prediction from the GDPS showing roughly 5cm of snow for Winnipeg on Thursday into Friday. Generally 3–5cm should fall across the RRV, with potentially higher amounts along and north of the Trans-Canada Highway.

The Rest of the Week

Wednesday

Mainly sunny.
-5°C / -13°C
Thursday

Increasing cloud. Snow beginning in the afternoon. Generally 3-5cm.
-4°C / -8°C
Friday

A few flurries ending in the morning then gradual clearing.
-4°C / -9°C

We’ll see a beautiful day today with mainly sunny skies and a high temperature near –5°C. Skies will remain clear tonight as the temperature dips down to –13°C. For Thursday, we’ll see increasing cloud through the morning with light snow pushing into the Red River Valley through midday and the early afternoon. Temperatures will climb to around –4°C and we should see a couple cm or so during the day. Snow will continue through Thursday night giving another 2–4cm accumulation as temperatures dip to about –8°C. On Friday, skies will clear through the day with any lingering snow clearing out early in the morning. Temperatures should reach around –4°C again.

Total snowfall from this system should sit around 3–5cm for much of the Red River Valley, however there are numerous indications that there may be some enhanced snowfall just along and north of the low track due to enhanced instability north of the warmer air. This sort of enhancement is very sensitive to environmental conditions and can often also be extremely limited in extent, but at this point it looks like somewhere just north of the Trans-Canada Highway and Winnipeg may see closer to 7–10cm of snow from this system. I’m feeling like a broken record, but once again Winnipeg will rest right near the edge of the heaviest snowfall, and it could end up being quite a snowy night on Thursday night if this system tracks a little further south. We’ll have updates in the comments below, naturally.

The Extended Outlook

A fairly pleasant pattern is expected to set up over the weekend bringing a more zonal flow to the Prairies. This should bring in some very mild air with daytime highs climbing to 0°C by the end of the weekend. The downside to the situation is that, in contrast to the sunny skies called for by the current Environment Canada forecast, with all the snow we’ve had combined with the strengthening sun and warm temperatures, we could easily end up socked in with fog patches and stratus due to the abundant melting and strong inversion. So despite the rather optimistic outlook, there’s a chance that it could end up just sort of gloomy, damp and chilly. Here’s hoping that we can keep up enough mixing to keep the skies clear and we can enjoy an extremely pleasant start to next week!

Major Winter Storm to Start the Week

Brad Leave a comment

A major winter storm will impact all of Southern Manitoba to start the week. Accumulations will be very heavy in some areas, but luckily this won’t be another blizzard.

image

Weather Conditions at 12pm on Monday (GEM-Regional)

A developing low pressure system currently located in south-western Saskatchewan will be responsible for the snow. This system was formed as a powerful upper-level disturbance moved onshore in British Columbia late last night. This disturbance continues to track across the Prairies and will provide the lift necessary to generate the snow.

The snow has already begun to fall in south-western Manitoba this evening. Bands of moderate to heavy snow have been falling just south-west of Brandon. Heavy snow will continue to develop in this region as the evening progresses. Further east in the Red River Valley snow will begin to fall gradually this evening, with heavier bands moving in overnight. By Monday morning all of Southern Manitoba will be in the snow. It is expected that the heaviest snow will fall mainly south and west of Winnipeg, particularly along the international border, though the city will see decent accumulations as well. The following graphic shows our snowfall forecast for Southern Manitoba:

image

Snowfall totals by Tuesday morning across Southern Manitoba.

The wind through this event won’t be particularly strong, with speeds of 20-30km/h gusting to 40-50km/h expected during the day on Monday. This will cause some blowing and drifting snow on the highways, but within urban areas the wind won’t be a significant factor. Temperatures through the day on Monday will be fairly steady in the mid to upper minus single digits, so the wind chill won’t be very high either. The snow will taper off on Tuesday night, with only lingering flurries expected by daybreak on Tuesday.

Tuesday will see our weather begin to settle down as the storm departs. As mentioned above, we may see a few flurries during the day on Tuesday, but additional accumulations will be small. Temperatures won’t drop off much, with highs once again in the mid to upper single digits.

Wednesday will again be a rather unexciting day weather-wise. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper minus single digits with a brisk south-easterly wind.

Elsewhere in Weather News: March 2nd, 2013

Matthieu Leave a comment

Strong Cyclone Affects Australia, Temperature Records Tallied

This past week a cyclone, Rusty, formed off the coast of north-western Australia and quickly spun into a strong cyclone by Australian standards. The cyclone made landfall as category one by Saffir Simpson Scale standards, (rated category 3 by Australian Bureau of Meterology) and even though it brought hurricane force winds, it affected an area of Australia that is sparsely populated. This meant that not much damage was caused by Rusty and only some overland flooding was reported as well as about a hundred houses without power. As Rusty moved inland, heavy rains and high wind gusts were the main concerns; over 450mm of rain fell and gusts of 150km/h were experienced around and south of the area where Rusty made landfall. Rusty’s quick strengthening off the north-western was aided by unusually warm waters – near 31°C and only about ten knots of shear present at the time.

Rusty Flooding

Flooding in an area just south of where Rusty made landfall. (Source: @Sturap)

This week the Australian Bureau of Meteorology also announced that the warmest summer on record (records since 1910) occurred this past summer. Australia’s average temperature surpassed the normal by 1.1°C and 95% of the country had above average temperatures this summer. Birdsville, Australia which typically has an average high temperature between 35°C and 38°C during summer had 31 consecutive days above 40°C. It has truly been an impressive summer 2012-2013 temperature-wise for Australia!

Average temperature anomalies

Average temperature anomalies for Australia summer 2012-2013. Much of Australia above average. (Souce: BoM)

In other news, another significant blizzard went through the Southern US Plains bringing more short-term drought relief to the area. Some areas in north-western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle received over 35cm of snow. Blizzard conditions were in place as strong winds and heavy snow fell along the deformation zone of the low pressure system. Almost all roads in the Texas Panhandle were impassable because of large snow drifts, residents were urged to stay home. Weather in the Southern Plains will be fairly calm this weekend and at the start of next week; no significant precipitation accumulation is expected.

Seasonal Weather Continues Through Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

Our streak of surprisingly seasonal weather will continue through the weekend as another push of Pacific air sweeps across the Southern Prairies.

850mb Temperatures Saturday Morning

850mb temperatures valid on Saturday morning. A warm front will be pushing across Southern Manitoba ushering in mild Pacific air and a very slight chance of a dusting of snow.
Friday

Mainly sunny.
-7°C / -14°C

We’ll see a mainly sunny day today as spend a final day under the effects of a weak ridge. Temperatures will climb to around –7°C, although depending where you are in Winnipeg, temperatures could climb locally to –5 or –4°C as more and more concrete is exposed.[1] Temperatures will dip down tonight to around –15°C before clouds begin to move in ahead of the approaching warm front.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday

Mainly cloudy.
-3°C / -7°C
Saturday

Mainly cloudy.
-2°C / -7°C

Milder Pacific air will push into the Red River Valley this weekend warming temperatures up close to the 0°C mark. Both Saturday and Sunday will be mainly cloudy and other than a very slight chance on Saturday morning of a light dusting, no snow is expected. Temperatures will only drop to around –7 or –8°C both Saturday and Sunday night.

Next Week

Models seem to indicate a system diving southwards into North Dakota but differ on what to expect from it. Current indications are that no significant snowfall will be seen over Southern Manitoba, although the GEM-GLB is painting a swath of 20+cm through our region. We’ll keep a close eye on it as the weekend progresses. Even with the passage of this system, temperatures aren’t expected to drop more than a few degrees and we should continue to see daytime highs warmer than –10°C through the week.

  1. Concrete has a lower albedo than snow-covered ground. Albedo is a measure of reflectivity of a surface; because concrete’s albedo is lower, it reflects less sunlight and warms up more. This effect is very noticeable at this time of year over forested areas where temperatures can climb as much as 10°C higher than open, snow-covered areas adjacent to them.  ↩