Potentially Record-Breaking Warmth on the Way!

Warmer weather is on the way for Winnipeg this week as another surge of mild pacific air crosses the Prairies. Temperatures will push well past 0°C on Thursday, with several record highs at risk of being broken across Southern Manitoba.

00Z Fri. SFC Temperature from GEMGLB

Surface Temperature plot valid for 00Z, Friday January 6th, 2012

Warm air will surge across the Prairies with a low pressure system that will track across the Central/Northern Prairies Wednesday/Thursday. Those of us in the Southern Prairies will get to enjoy a nice early-January day where temperatures will reach between 5°C and 10°C by Thursday afternoon with relatively light winds.

Temperatures should be restricted by the snow cover, and I’d like to see a solidly southwest wind to get daytime highs as high as currently forecast (+7°C for Winnipeg).

Thursday, January 5, 2012 18Z Wind Field from GEM-GLB

Surface Wind & MSLP for Thursday, January 05 valid at 18Z from the January 3rd, 2012 12Z run of the GEM-GLB.

Currently, winds are forecast to shift from southerly to westerly in the afternoon, however if the troughing ahead of the low is not as deep as currently forecast, southerly winds could prevail in the RRV and keep our temperature significantly lower. That being said, I’d be willing to pin the daytime high for Winnipeg to be about 6°C, reached late in the afternoon. This temperature is well above the -16°C it reached last year on January 5th, the -13.5°C on January 5th, 2010, and the -24°C it reached on January 5th 2009.

The average daytime high temperature for January in Winnipeg is -12.7°C, and the warmest temperature on record for any day in January in Winnipeg is 7.8°C, set on January 23, 1942. The current record high for January 5th is 4.3°C, set in 1984. We will definitely be well above our average daytime high on Thursday and most likely break the old daily record. Is it enough to break the all-time temperature record for January in Winnipeg? Let us know what you think in the comments!

Light New Year’s Reading: Top 10 Weather Stories of 2011

Tropical Storm Washi

Tropical Storm Washi; 01:45 UTC Dec. 16, 2011 as it bore down on the Phillipines

On the eve of 2012, what better time to do some reading on 2011? Here are two of my favourite Top 10 Weather Story lists:

  • Environment Canada’s Top 10 Weather Stories of 2011
    1. The Prairie Floods
    2. Slave Lake Blaze
    3. Richelieu Flooding
    4. Wild Crop Season
    5. Goderich Tornado
    6. Irene, Katia, Maria and Ophelia Batter the Maritimes
    7. Dramatic Summer
    8. Near Record-Low Arctic Sea Ice
    9. Snowmageddon
    10. Calgary Wind Storm
  • Jeff Masters Top 10 Weather Stories of 2011
    1. East Africa Drough and Famine
    2. Thailand Flooding
    3. Queensland, Australia Flooding
    4. Columbia Floods
    5. Tropical Storm Washi
    6. Brazil Flash Flood
    7. April 25-28 “Super” Tornado Outbreak
    8. Southern U.S./Northern Mexico Drought
    9. Pakistan Floods
    10. (Tie) Hurricane Irene
    11. (Tie) Joplin Missouri Tornado Outbreak

I’d make my own, but I pretty much agree with these two lists! So if you’re looking for some casual reading this afternoon, hit the links for more detail about all these events! From all of us here at A Weather Moment, we wish all our readers a happy and safe New Year! We appreciate all who take the time to visit and read our blog and we can’t wait to show you all the things we have in store for 2012!

Chance of Freezing Rain Over The Red River Valley

A large upper trough swinging across the Prairies is supporting two low pressure systems, one in central Saskatchewan and one in the Northern Plains of the United States, that will move across Manitoba overnight and tomorrow morning, bringing with them snow and the risk of freezing rain.

Dec. 31 Prog

For southern Manitoba, the main concern will be the precipitation generated along the apex of the frontal wave as it occludes southeastwards from the northern low in Central Manitoba to Minnesota. The warm front will align somewhere near a line from Winnipeg to Sprague, and slowly shift south/southeast through the day. Areas near the International Border have the greatest risk of freezing rain, due to the higher intensity of the precipitation expected there. The risk diminishes as you head north towards Winnipeg. I agree with the latest Environment Canada forecast that calls for ice pellets in Winnipeg; the warmest air should stay south of the city and we will likely have enough cold air entrenched to freeze any rain that comes out of an above-freezing layer. I can’t exclude the chance of a brief period or two of freezing rain, especially late overnight and early tomorrow morning. As this system develops, snow will become the predominant weather type, and much of the RRV can expect between 2-4 cm of the white stuff, while a few localities may get up to a couple inches.

I think it’s likely areas south of Morris will see some duration of freezing rain before sitching over to snow. The good news is that this doesn’t have the makings for a large-scale freezing-rain event, so there shouldn’t be any concern of widespread highway closures. Given that some roads are already very slippery, however, drivers should take caution when travelling overnight or tomorrow as fresh snow may be hiding a layer of ice underneath. Always drive with care when freezing rain and snow occur.

This system should clear out tomorrow afternoon, bringing in strong northwesterly winds behind it gusting up to 70 km/h. Fortunately, the arctic cold front is well to our north, so while chilly, we likely won’t even seen our temperature drop to even -15 to -20°C for overnight lows before the next swell of warm air pushes across the Prairies, bringing us continued pleasant winter weather with daytime highs in the -5 to 0°C range! The strong winds will move in tomorrow evening and last through much of the day on Sunday before tapering off, bringing us wind chill values as low as -25 in Winnipeg.

So hang in there, a couple chilly days and we’ll be back to pleasant temperatures with a fresh coat of snow! Happy New Year!

What Happened to Our La Nina?

What Happened to Our La Nina?