After A Chilly Wednesday, Temperatures Set to Skyrocket

It will be a bitterly cold morning today across southern Manitoba with wind chill values dipping as low as -42 or -43 in some locations, but this cold weather is short lived as a rapidly building upper-level ridge allows mild Pacific air to flood eastwards across the Prairies.

A bitterly cold ridge of high pressure will bring well below-seasonal temperatures to the region with daytime highs across southern Manitoba struggling to climb much above the -20°C mark. Winds will also pick up out of the west to around 20-30 km/h, maintaining wind chill values below -30 all day. No question about it, it’s going to be a cold one.

Temperatures will dip to the mid-minus 20’s tonight with relatively south to southwesterly light winds as the ridge axis moves through.

Thursday will begin the warmup as a the Arctic ridge begins moving off to the east and milder air begins pushing into southern Alberta & southwestern Saskatchewan. Here in Winnipeg, temperatures will climb to a high near -14°C with gradually increasing cloud cover. Winds will pick up out of the south in the late afternoon to around 30-40 km/h ahead of the incoming warm front. Snow will then spread into the region overnight with winds tapering off and temperatures rising to around -9°C by Friday morning.

A low pressure system will spread snow across southern Manitoba on Thursday night, however there is some uncertainty of how far north the snow will fall.

The snow will taper off on Friday morning, leaving behind mostly cloudy skies with a chance of freezing drizzle. Temperatures will continue to climb to a high near -2°C, although temperatures could climb above the freezing mark near the US border. Skies will become mixed as temperatures drop to a low near -12°C on Friday night.

Long Range

In general, the future looks pleasant. Above-normal temperatures are expected to be in place throughout all of next week with daytime highs averaging in the mid-minus single digits.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -9°C while the seasonal overnight low is -20°C.

Slightly Cooler & Becoming Breezy

Temperatures will dip slightly through the second half of the week as breezy northwesterly winds develop across Southern Manitoba.

It’s another fairly simple forecast for the coming days ahead as little changes in the weather other than a slight shift in temperatures.

As a potent low pressure system that brought a wintry mix to South Dakota yesterday moves off into Eastern Canada, the slack flow that’s been in place over the province for the past week will be replaced by a northwesterly flow with breezy winds that will tap into slightly cooler temperatures.

Today will bring winds of 10-20 km/h and temperatures steady around -6°C. There will be a very slight chance of some flurries, but they would be quite light and scattered. Skies will be fairly cloudy, although a brief sunny break or two can’t be ruled out.

Temperatures will dip to around -11°C tonight, the coldest overnight low since January 17th when the mercury dipped to -16.0°C early in the morning.

Thursday will bring a cooler high temperature and relatively light winds as a ridge of high pressure passes across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will top out around -7°C with cloudy skies in the morning giving way to some sunny breaks in the afternoon. Temperatures will dip to a low near -12°C once again on Thursday night under partly cloudy skies.

Northwest winds are expected over Southern Manitoba on Friday

Friday brings mixed skies and strengthening northwesterly winds to 30-40 km/h. Temperatures will climb to a high near -3°C. It looks like the cloud cover will be reinforced late Friday, moderating overnight lows slightly as the temperature drops to about -8°C.

Long Range

The weekend will continue the trend of above normal temperatures and cloudy skies. Don’t expect to see much sunshine as a slight chance of light, scattered flurries persists through the weekend.

Above-Normal Temperatures Expected Until End of January

While the cold snap earlier this month seems to be a vivid memory of many people I talk to, it actually hasn’t been a cold month at all, temperature-wise.

The cold snap began on January 3rd and persisted through January 14th. Throughout that period, daytime highs averaged -17.6°C (4.5°C below normal) while overnight lows averaged -28.1 (5.1°C below normal). This resulted in a mean temperature of -22.8°C for that 12-day stretch, which is 4.8°C below normal.

By comparison, the latest warm spell began on January 15th and has persisted so far until January 24th. During this time frame, daytime highs have averaged -1.6°C (11.3°C above normal) and overnight lows have averaged -7.1°C (15.9°C above normal). The most extreme deviation from normal occurred on January 21st when a minimum temperature of +0.9°C occurred, breaking the daily record for warmest minimum temperature at a whopping 23.8°C above normal.1 This has resulted in a mean temperature of -4.4°C for that 10-day stretch, which is 13.6°C above normal.

All that to say, the warm has been much more unseasonable than the cold. January currently sits with a monthly mean temperature of -14.3°C, which is 3.7°C above normal.

Temperatures are expected to remain mild, albeit not as warm as we experienced earlier in the week, with daytime highs hovering between -8 and -1°C through the end of January. This means that another month of above-normal temperatures will likely be recorded in Winnipeg when January draws to a close.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -12°C while the seasonal overnight low is -23°C.


  1. The previous record warmest January minimum temperature for January 21st was -3.3°C set in 1900. 

Warm Weather Arrives for Remainder of Work Week

The promised warmer weather will move in for the second half of the work week, sending temperatures over 10°C above seasonal daytime highs.

Temperatures will be very mild over the coming 3 days as westerly winds continue to advect a Pacific-sourced air mass eastwards across the Prairies. Daytime highs over the next few days will hover around the 0 to +2°C mark with overnight lows between -4 and -1°C.

Winds will be fairly light over the coming few days as well, with winds generally out of the south at 10-20 km/h persisting right through Friday.

Above normal temperatures will be in place over the Prairies through the second half of the week.

Skies will be variably cloudy; today we expect partly cloudy skies this morning transitioning to periods of mixed to cloudy skies this afternoon and evening. Things should clear out a bit on Thursday morning with partly cloudy skies returning for the afternoon and then thicker cloud cover moving in on Thursday night for Friday.

All in all, a very nice second half to the work week on the way.

Long Range

Things will begin to change on the weekend, though, as a rather complex transition occurs and brings more unsettled weather to our region.

A complex upper-level wind pattern will develop over the region this weekend.

A potent upper-level jet is digging a trough off the western coast of the United States while at the same time an upper-level low meanders northeastwards from New Mexico into the Central Plains of the United States. Over the coming days, the digging upper-level trough over the west coast will tilt eastwards and absorb the upper-level low, merging into a rather large vortex that will then push several plumes of moisture northwards across Southern Manitoba.

It can’t be understated how complex the evolution expected to happen this weekend is. Details about precipitation will almost certainly change between now and then. That said, a few generalities…

The weekend will be fairly mild with temperatures hovering at or above the freezing mark, with overnight lows within a degree or two of the daytime highs. It will be cloudy throughout, with a chance of snow or rain on both Saturday and Sunday. This could be very light, or a more significant storm depending on how things set up.

With a large area of lift moving in over the region, there will also be a chance for fog and drizzle through the weekend, but whether or not it forms will depend exactly on how this weather system sets up.

So, in short: a nice end to the work week will be followed by a mild but messy weekend. We’ll have more details on exactly what to expect in our next forecast on Friday.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -23°C.

Temperatures Soar For The Week Ahead

Very mild temperatures will spread into Southern Manitoba this week sending daytime highs soaring to over 10°C above normal for mid-January.

The week will start with one more day with seasonal temperatures in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as mainly sunny skies combine with light winds as temperatures climb to a high near -6°C. Temperatures will dip to around -11°C tonight as winds begin to pick up from the south in advance of an incoming warm front.

Tuesday and Wednesday will bring the arrival of warmer weather to the region as a warm front sweeps eastwards across the province. Tuesday will see winds increasing out of the south to around 30-40 km/h while temperatures climb to a high near -3°C late in the day. The winds will diminish in the evening and temperatures will dip to a low near -5 or -6°C. On Wednesday, the warm air will push even further east, sending daytime highs to the 0°C mark in the Red River Valley with fairly light winds. Expect temperatures to dip down to around -2 or -3°C on Wednesday night.

The forecast 850mb temperatures show clearly the push of mild air across the Prairies through mid-week.

Both Tuesday and Wednesday have some uncertainty as to how much cloud will move in. At best, we could expect mixed skies, however I think it will lean towards the cloudier side than the sunnier side. Having fairly cloudy conditions as we warm up to the freezing mark in January would not exactly be uncommon for this area.

Long Range

The second half of the week will continue to bring mild temperatures with daytime highs near the freezing mark and variable cloudiness. Heading into the weekend, it begins to appear that the weather will begin to get a bit busier as the storm track shifts towards our region. It looks like, at this point, Saturday may bring a chance of rain or freezing rain, but amounts would be fairly light. The remainder of the weekend looks cloudy and mild.

Heading into the start of next week, models are beginning to converge on the development of another Colorado Low that would impact our region. It’s still very early, so as usual plenty can change between now and then, but at the moment it appears that this system could bring snow into Winnipeg & the Red River Valley sometime Monday and persist through Tuesday. Forecast storm total amounts are generally in the 10-20 cm right now. We’ll be keeping an eye on this system as we get closer and things begin to shape up more.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -24°C.