Mild Weekend Welcome, But A Mixed Bag Otherwise

Temperatures over the next few days will be positively balmy for early January in Winnipeg as daytime highs near -5°C over the next few days keep us well over the normal high of around -13°C for this time of year. The warm temperatures are a welcome reprieve from the bitter cold that has gripped the province over the last month, but the other aspects of the weather will be a bit of a mixed bag over the next few days as multiple low pressure systems move through the region.

Friday
-5°C / -15°C
Cloudy with flurries beginning midday. Clearing overnight.
Saturday
-7°C / -12°C
Mixed skies and a bit cooler.
Sunday
-3°C / -15°C
Mixed skies with a chance of flurries in the morning and evening.

Today will be a pleasant day with fairly light winds and a high of around -5°C. Skies will remain cloudy through the day and we’ll likely see some scattered flurries develop through the Red River Valley midday as a very weak low pressure system pushes through. This evening will see any remaining flurries push off to our east with clouds scattering out overnight as we drop to a low of around -15°C.

Saturday will be a slightly cooler, thanks to a weak ridge passing over the Red River Valley, but nice day with a mixed sky and a high near -7°. We’ll drop only to around -12°C Saturday night as a warm front moves through the area associated with an incoming clipper system from Alberta. A band of light snow should push through the Red River Valley overnight into early Sunday morning with no real significant accumulations other than perhaps a couple centimetres here or there; the bulk of the snowfall will remain in the Interlake where around 2-5cm of snow is expected. Perhaps the bigger impact of the system will be the strong winds that move into the region on Saturday night; we’ll see them increase out of the south to 40 gusting 60km/h which will likely produce some blowing snow on highways throughout the Red River Valley.

After things clear out on Sunday morning we’ll actually be in for quite a nice day with a high near -3°C. Skies will be mixed for much of the day before more cloud moves into the area in the evening hours as a cold front slumps southwards towards the Red River Valley. The chance for some light flurry activity will re-emerge on Sunday evening with the passage of the cold front but as with the rest of the features this weekend, no significant amounts are expected.

Warmer weather is expected to continue through much of next week. A storm system is currently forecast to move through on Wednesday night, which could bring blizzard conditions to the Red River Valley thanks to very strong northwesterly winds, will likely bring cooler weather for the week’s end. We’re no longer in a relatively static upper-level pattern, though, so the cold air will continue trundling off to the east fairly quickly instead of sitting around here for a prolonged period.

More Mild Weather Ahead

Southern Manitoba will see seasonably warm temperatures today as mild air streams into the region aloft.
Southern Manitoba will see seasonably warm temperatures today as mild air streams into the region aloft.

The Red River Valley will bask once again in above-normal temperatures as another shot of warm air pushes up from the south. We’ll have mixed skies and a somewhat stiff southerly wind accompanying the warmer temperatures, but it should still be fairly pleasant for mid-November nonetheless.

Today

Friday

7°C / -1°C
A mixed sky; mild and windy.

We’ll see mixed skies develop today with some patchy fog throughout the Red River Valley this morning which means, especially when combined with some ice on the roads, drivers – especially highway driving – should take care if travelling through the earlier hours of the morning. Winds will increase to 30–50km/h out of the south by midday as the warmer air pushes in. Temperatures will climb to around 6–7°C, perhaps a degree higher if the clouds break up sooner than later, for a daytime high some 10°C above normal! More cloud will roll in tonight as another disturbance begins pushing into Central Manitoba. A band of snow will set up through the Parkland region eastwards through the northern Interlake, but here in the Red River Valley we’ll just see increasing cloud through the night as we drop to a low of only around –1°C.

The Weekend

Saturday

4°C / -3°C
Cloudy & mild.

Saturday will bring more mild weather despite having mostly cloudy skies through the day. Precipitation is unlikely for us; at this point it appears that everything or to our east. If the entire setup ends up a little further west, we might see a very slight risk of a shower, but as I said, I think that’s quite unlikely. Other than that, Saturday will be quite an uneventful day here in Winnipeg. Winds will be light as we sit in the middle of a large surface trough stationed over the area.

Sunday

↘ -5°C / -12°C
A mix of sun and cloud.

Sunday will see cooler air to our NW finally pushing back into the region. Our temperature will drop to near –5°C through the morning hours and then remain there for the rest of the day. Sunday night will see the true return of the Arctic air as temperatures dip all the way into the minus teens. Winds will be out of the northwest at 20–30km/h. No precipitation is expected. Or is it?

12hr. Precipitation accumulations from the NAM heading into Sunday morning.
12hr. Precipitation accumulations from the NAM heading into Sunday morning.

While most models are pushing the system that will be in the area the next few days off to our east as it intensifies on Sunday, the NAM has hinted at it not pushing off quite so quickly. In one of its solution, the system intensifies further west, developing an area of heavy snow right on top of the Red River Valley. If this solution panned out, that would mean easily 10–20cm of snow by the end of Sunday. At this point, though, I don’t quite have enough faith in the NAM to say it’s likely. There’s overwhelming consensus throughout every other Canadian and European model that things will move off to the east, to the point where this solution of the NAM can’t be looked at as anything more than an anomaly.

Sometimes these interesting little anomalies end up being the right answer though, so we’ll definitely be keeping an eye on things and providing updates if things trend towards a snowier solution on Sunday.

One Warm Day Before Flurries

Southern Manitoba will bask in temperatures well above-normal today before a cold front slumping southwards across the Prairies pushes through on Thursday, bringing seasonal weather back to the region.

Wednesday

9°C / -2°C
Warm and windy under a mixed sky.
Thursday

0°C / -6°C
Cloudy with flurries.
Friday

5°C / -4°C
Warming up with under a mixed sky.

Today

We’ll see a beautiful – albeit windy – day today as warm air washes over the Red River Valley. We’ll see winds out of the west at 30–50km/h as our temperature soars almost a whole 10°C above normal for this time of year to a daytime high of 8 or 9°C. We’ll see a mixed sky, but no precipitation is expected and this will almost certainly be the warmest temperatures in the area for the next long while.

Thursday

Our warm weather will be relatively short-lived, however, as a cold front dipping southwards across the Prairies pushes through on Thursday morning. With it’s passage, we’ll see much cooler daytime highs of only around 0°C under cloudy skies. The wind will be out of the northwest at 20–40km/h. We’ll also see flurries through the day, but no accumulations are expected. The flurries will taper off overnight as we drop to around –6°C.

Friday

Friday will see the return of warmer air as a rapidly deepening low pressure system north of 60 draws warmer air northwards over the Eastern Prairies. We’ll see our temperature here in Winnipeg climb to around 5°C with south/southwesterly winds developing through the day to 20–40km/h.

All in all not a bad few days to have in mid-November. We may see our first significant accumulating snow this weekend if a complex of low pressure systems align properly, but at this point there’s far too much uncertainty to say that much of a risk yet. We’ll see how things develop through the week and report back on Friday!

Warm Week Ahead with an Unsettled End

Unseasonably warm weather will settle in over Southern Manitoba over the next few days with daytime highs soaring 7–8°C above the normal 12°C for this time of year. Week’s end will bring unsettled weather into the province as a low pressure system lifts northwards out of the Central Plains of the United States.

Wednesday

19°C / 7°C
Mainly sunny with a few cloudy periods in the afternoon.
Thursday

19°C / 12°C
Increasing cloud through the day. Chance of showers in the evening.
Friday

18°C / 8°C
Cloudy. A few showers likely.

Today & Tomorrow

We’ll see a very pleasant day today with a high around 20°C and bright sunny skies light winds out of the southwest. We may see a little afternoon cloud, but nothing too significant. Tonight will be a fairly seasonable night with mostly clear skies and a low near 7°C.

Tomorrow will start off mostly sunny, but we’ll see some scattered cloud through the day and by late in the day we’ll start to see more organized cloud cover starting to push into the Red River Valley from North Dakota. There will be a slight chance of a shower through the evening hours as a warm front lifts north through the Red River Valley & Interlake regions but no significant accumulations are expected in our region.

An Unsettled Friday

Friday will most likely end up a somewhat unsettled day as a low pressure system tracks through the Red River Valley. This disturbance will bring a fair amount of rain to Western Manitoba; at this point it looks like close to 40–50mm will fall near the Saskatchewan border. Here in the Red River Valley rainfall will be lighter and more disorganized in nature. We’ll see a decent chance of some light scattered showers through the Red River Valley through the day under cloudy skies. The temperature should climb to around 18°C as we sit just on the warm side of the main frontal boundary of this system.

12hr. QPF valid Fri. 12Z - Sat 00Z w/Frontal Analysis

Forecast rainfall through the daytime on Friday from the GDPS. Rainfall accumulation 12Z – 00Z; low position & fronts valid for Saturday 00Z.

We’ll likely see the bulk of the rain we receive on Friday night and Saturday as we move onto the back-side of the system and a large area of wrap-around precipitation hangs back over the Red River Valley. At the moment, models are forecasting total accumulations around Winnipeg to be anywhere from 5–15mm by the end of Saturday. Until then, we have a couple nice days ahead so get out there and enjoy them!