Tag: Benign Weather

A Brief Return to Summer

Brad Leave a comment

A very cool start today with temperatures in the low single digits will be the last of the near-freezing temperatures we’ll see for a while thanks to a push of warmer air spreading eastwards across the Prairies that will bring summer-like warmth back to the region. The warmer weather will be a welcome sight to many after a week that has seen distinctly fall-like weather and gloomy cloud.

All in all, there isn’t much to talk about on the weather front for the coming days. Today will start off quite cool and see the temperature gradually rise to around 19°C. There may be some fog patches around this morning, but they should burn off fairly quickly after the sun rises. Winds will be fairly light and other than some afternoon clouds bringing mixed skies, there won’t be much going on in the Red River Valley. Temperatures drop to around 10°C under clearing skies tonight.

Tomorrow will see warmer weather begin to work into Southern Manitoba as a flow of warmer air pushes in from the west. Winds out of the south at around 20km/h will mark the arrival of the warmer weather, sending daytime highs to around the 23°C mark across the region under mainly sunny skies. Our overnight low will be considerably warmer tomorrow night at around 13°C.

Forecast 850mb Temperatures valid Saturday Morning from the NAM
Westerly winds at 850mb – approximately 1.5km above the ground – will be ushering warmer temperatures to Manitoba for the weekend. This image shows warm advection over Manitoba on Saturday morning from the NAM forecast model.

Sunday will the the warmest day of the next few with a high around 26°C under mainly sunny skies. The winds will be a bit more notable, strengthening out of the south to around 30km/h with some gustiness possible on top of that. Overall, though, it will be a very pleasant day. Expect an overnight low just a tad cooler than Saturday at around 11°C.

Cooler Start to Next Week

A weak cool front slumping southwards on Sunday night looks to stall over extreme southern Manitoba on Monday, bringing a bit more cloud cover and cooler daytime highs through the first half of the week. Precipitation looks fairly minimal for areas along and south of the Trans-Canada highway, but a more organized chance for precipitation appears to develop for the northern Parkland & Interlake into Central Manitoba as a low pressure system develops and lifts northeastwards mid-week. This should once again bring warmer weather back to the Red River Valley.

A Hint of Fall

Brad Leave a comment

The weather through the second half of the week will have a distinctly fall-like feel to it as a building ridge of high pressure over the Prairies brings cooler weather to Southern Manitoba with daytime highs in the upper teens and overnight lows in the single digits.

Thanks to a high pressure system building in from the Arctic, temperatures will be fairly cool over the coming few days with daytime highs around 18°C and overnight lows in the mid-to-upper single digits. Winds will be out of the northwest at around 20km/h today and tomorrow, however swing around to the south for Friday.

The only real notable weather will be tonight. With very cool air pushing into Southern Manitoba[1], lake-effect cloudy and precipitation will likely develop overnight into Thursday morning. Showers or drizzle are possible in the lee of the lakes beginning late in the evening tonight until mid-morning on Thursday. Even if the precipitation doesn’t occur, some cloudiness is a certainty, so expect cloudy or mixed skies on Thursday morning with a clearing trend into the afternoon.

The RDPS forecast model is picking up on the potential for lake-effect precipitation overnight into Thursday morning, shown here by the trails of precipitation accumulation in the lee of hte lakes over Manitoba.
The RDPS forecast model is picking up on the potential for lake-effect precipitation overnight into Thursday morning, shown here by the trails of precipitation accumulation in the lee of hte lakes over Manitoba.

Otherwise, the weather will be quite benign for the remainder of the work week.

Long Range Outlook

Looking ahead to the weekend, it looks like warmer weather will begin to return to the region. Daytime highs will climb back into the mid–20’s with breezy southerly winds on Saturday. Sunday will feature a high in the mid–20’s again with strong southerly winds ahead of a developing low pressure system. There looks to be a slight chance for some rain on Sunday evening/overnight into Monday, however the odds look slim at this point.

All in all the weather will be fairly nice for the coming 5 days, so enjoy it; just remember to begin packing a jacket or sweater for the evenings!

  1. 850mb temperatures tonight are forecast to fall to around 3°C.  ↩

Summer Temperatures Return as Quiet Weather Continues

Brad Leave a comment

Temperatures will be returning to more summer-like values through the second half of this week thanks to an upper-level ridge that will push out the cold air drawn southwards behind this past weekend’s big storm and allow more heat to begin building into the region.

The coming two days will be gorgeous with plenty of sunshine, light winds and warm temperatures. Today will see daytime highs near 26 or 27°C while Thursday will bring highs a degree or two warmer. Overnight lows both nights will be near 12°C. The most significant weather feature will be the significant amounts of smoke that will be pushing into the region sourced from wildfires raging in the northwestern United States. At this point, it seems like it should mainly be aloft and not pose much of an air quality issue.

NAM Forecasted MUCAPE & Bulk Shear valid Friday evening.
The NAM is showing large values of CAPE (energy) and shear on Friday afternoon which suggests the potential for severe thunderstorms.

Friday will see a low pressure system moving through the region, bringing warmer temperatures alongside a thunderstorm threat. The major question mark, at this point, appears to be whether or not any smoke in the region inhibits temperatures from climbing high enough to trigger thunderstorms or not. That said, it looks like the potential will be in place for severe thunderstorms with over 3000 J/kg of CAPE expected and over 50 kt of bulk shear in place.

We’ll be taking a closer look at the severe thunderstorm potential on Friday morning in the next blog post, but for now, just keep aware that the threat for severe weather may return to the Red River Valley on Friday.

Other than the storm potential, daytime highs should sit near 30°C with mixed skies. There’s also a reasonable chance that it will be quite humid, making it feel more like the upper 30’s.

Heading through the weekend, it looks like Winnipeg & the Red River Valley will see highs near 30°C with plenty of sunshine, making up for the miserable weather during the last weekend. Other than the blip on Friday, there’s plenty of warm, dry and sunny weather ahead, so enjoy!

Slowly Warming Up

Scott Leave a comment

Conditions will slowly warm this week as the weekend’s potent weather system departs our region. Temperatures should return to seasonal values by midweek.

Monday

Today will remain on the cool side, with high temperatures in the upper teens. Winds will remain gusty as well, as we continue to deal with the stiff north-west flow behind the weekend’s low pressure system. Skies will finally become sunny however, which is a welcome change from the grey and rainy conditions of the weekend.

Tuesday

Tuesday will see temperatures warm further, with highs reaching the low twenties. Skies will remain mainly sunny and winds will be light making for a nice day.

Wednesday

Wednesday should see temperatures climb back toward seasonal, or even above-seasonal values. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper twenties as we return to a mild southerly flow. Skies may be somewhat variable due to the passage of an upper-level disturbance.