Tag: Benign Weather

Cool Start with a Quick Recovery

Brad Leave a comment

After a stretch of summer weather last week that saw daytime highs climbing into the mid-to-upper 20’s, cooler weather has moved into Southern Manitoba behind the weekend’s cold fronts that will start the week off with cooler weather. Temperatures will rebound quickly through what will be a dry & quiet start to the week before things turn more unsettled through the week’s second half.

Today will be the coolest day of the next few with temperatures climbing to just 17 or 18°C as the main axis of cold air behind the weekend’s cold fronts moves across Southern Manitoba. There will be a bit of morning drizzle, but then things should scatter out nicely and Winnipeg will be left with partly cloudy skies through much of the remainder of the day. Winds will be out of the north at around 20 km/h. The clouds will clear out tonight and much of the Red River Valley will see a low near 9°C with light winds.

Tomorrow will bring warmer air to the region; daytime highs will be around 5°C warmer than today at the 22–23°C mark. Winds will be light. The day will start sunny, but by the afternoon cloud associated with a weather system moving through North Dakota will spill across the Red River Valley bringing variable cloudiness; in the southern valley it will be overcast through much of the afternoon while further north in Winnipeg it will be a little more variable and a bit later in arriving. Skies will clear overnight as the temperature drops to around 12°C.

Forecast 850mb Temperatures for Wednesday Morning
A warm front moving through on Wednesday morning will bring warmer weather back to Winnipeg.

Wednesday will see warm weather return with daytime highs climbing back to the mid–20’s with just a few clouds. Winds will continue to be fairly light, making for a very pleasant day. We’ll see some cloudiness on Wednesday night with a chance of showers. The temperature will drop just below 10°C or so.

Unsettled Second Half of the Week

Cooler, more unsettled weather will move into the Red River Valley for the second half of the week. Temperatures will drop back into the high teens or low 20’s with an increasing chance of shower activity towards the end of the week. There’s still a fair amount of uncertainty in location, but in general it looks like Thursday will see the shower activity west of the Red River Valley and see it push eastwards for Friday into the weekend. Like this past weekend, it likely won’t be a rainy weekend, but rather one with some chances for periods of wet weather.

Investors Group Field - Canada vs. USA - 2014

Beautiful Start to The Week For The First 2015 FIFA World Cup Game in Winnipeg

Scott Leave a comment

The first half of this week will bring generally pleasant summer weather to Winnipeg & the Red River Valley. Some showers or thunderstorms may be possible on Monday and/or Tuesday, but mainly south and east of Winnipeg.

Monday

Today will be a beautiful day for the first 2015 FIFA Women’s World Cup game played here in Winnipeg. Skies will be mainly sunny and high temperatures will climb into the upper twenties. Winds will be relatively light from the north-west at 20 km/h or lower. There may be a few passing showers or very weak thunderstorms south and east of Winnipeg, but nothing of particular significance. Overall it will be a very nice day!

Tuesday

Tuesday will see mainly sunny skies prevail once again, with temperatures in the mid twenties over much of southern Manitoba. Winds will be fairly gusty from the north-west at 30km/h gusting up to 50km/h. Similar to Monday, there will be a risk of thunderstorms south and east of Winnipeg. The risk for storms may shift in later forecasts, but presently it appears that eastern Manitoba could see some marginally severe storms, with perhaps some severe hail. We will provide another update if this threat is expected to materialize.

Wednesday

Benign weather looks to return for Wednesday with mainly sunny skies and no precipitation expected. Temperatures will be in the low twenties and winds will be from the north-west at 20-30km/h.

Long Range

Long range models suggest that generally normal to above-normal weather is expected for the next week or two. Frequent passing weather system will bring unsettled conditions from time to time, with a risk of thunderstorms (generally non-severe). We are certainly not in a full-blown summer pattern just yet, but average temperatures continue to warm!

More Warmth Ahead This Week

Scott Leave a comment

The weather this week will continue from where the weekend left off as warm and mainly sunny conditions prevail. Temperatures will remain in the upper twenties, before dropping off a bit mid-week.

Monday

Today will be mainly sunny, although some upper-level cloud may drift through southern Manitoba as a result of a large weather system to our south. Other than that, there isn’t much weather to discuss for today. Temperatures will climb into the upper twenties and winds will remain light.

Tuesday

Tuesday looks to remain quite warm, with temperatures once again reaching the upper twenties. During the afternoon it is expected that the atmosphere will destabilize a bit due to slightly higher humidity and daytime heating. This may result in the development of some showers and thunderstorms. Any storms that do develop will be weak with only very small hail and/or brief gusty winds being possible.

Wednesday

A cold front will pass through southern Manitoba on Wednesday morning, ushering in slightly cooler temperatures. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid twenties under mainly sunny skies. There may be some light showers associated with the passage of the cold front, but other than that no significant weather is expected.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests we’ll generally stick with above-normal temperatures, although not necessarily as warm as it has been recently. Highs will more likely reside in the low to mid twenties, although the occasional jump into the upper twenties is certainly possible.

Summer Arrives in Southern Manitoba

Brad Leave a comment

The heat is on the way to Southern Manitoba as warmer air finally spills eastwards bringing positively summer-like weather to the area.

There is astonishingly little to say about the coming few days. Temperatures will climb into the mid–20’s Friday, Saturday and Sunday with overnight lows near 11 or 12°C all 3 days. Winds will be fairly light with the slight possibility of some breezier conditions on Saturday afternoon, but even there it would only likely be 20–30km/h. No precipitation is expected, although there will be a slight chance of some showers on Saturday north of Winnipeg along a very weak cold front from Dauphin eastwards across the Interlake.

All in all it will be a perfect weekend to get outside either here in the city or head up to the cottage for a truncated mulligan of the May long weekend!

Uncertain Start to Next Week

The beginning of next week presents another interesting forecast challenge as yet another Colorado Low forms and pushes northwards into the Dakotas. Model forecasts currently diverge quite a bit, demonstrated easily by the current forecasted storm-total precipitation for Winnipeg produced by each one:

Forecast Storm-Total Precipitation for Monday’s Colorado Low
Model Storm-Total Rainfall (mm)
GDPS 16
NAEFS 8
GFS 0

In general, amounts increase to the south and east of Winnipeg in all the forecast scenarios. Why the big difference? The track of the Colorado Low will depend significantly on how it interacts with thunderstorm activity that develops through the Central Plains as it ejects northeastwards from Colorado. If the convection forms close to the upper-level low and has a significant amount of moisture wrap into it, it will strengthen more, tilting the entire upper-level trough and pulling the system further northwest. If the moisture from the convection pulls off to the east over the upper-level ridge, then the system will be a bit faster, weaker and further southeast.

At this point, there’s still far too much disagreement in the models to make much of a forecast. Overall, the GDPS – currently forecasting the highest amounts for Winnipeg & the RRV – tends to produce too much convection and over-develop lows. They’ve made significant improvements in the latest version of the GDPS, but it still tends to have that strong bias which results in slower systems further to the NW. I think the GFS solution of nothing at all to likely be missing the mark and not quite worth banking on.

That leaves us with the middle-of-the-road answer. Likely some rain on Monday, however not likely as much as advertised by some weather sources right now. We’ll certainly keep an eye on things as they develop and have some updates later in the weekend on how it looks like things are developing.

But for now, get out there and enjoy the hot & dry weather!