Increasing Cloudiness Brings Unsettled Conditions to Winnipeg

Winnipeg will see increasing cloudiness today as it spreads northwards out of the Dakotas. The cloud will continue through the remainder of the week with several chances for wet weather.

A sunny start in Winnipeg today will develop into partly cloudy to mixed skies through the day as a warmer air mass pushes in from the southwest. Fortunately, despite any cloud the temperatures will still climb to an above-seasonal high near 10°C! Winds won’t be too much of a bother, increasing out of the south-southwest into the 20 to 30 km/h range. Winnipeg will continue to see mixed skies tonight with overcast skies developing early Thursday morning. Temperatures should dip to a low near +3°C.

Winnipeg may see some organized light rain on Friday morning, however model confidence in the location of the rain is low.
Winnipeg may see some organized light rain on Friday morning, however model confidence in the location of the rain is low.

Thursday and Friday will bring cloudy skies to Winnipeg as several weak upper-level disturbances move through the region. There will be a persistent, background chance for some drizzle or light showers through the region on Thursday and Friday, but the best chance for organized rain showers is on Friday morning. Temperatures will remain near-seasonal with a high of around 9°C on Thursday and near 7°C on Friday. Winds won’t be an issue either day, with light easterlies expected through the period. Temperatures will dip down to around +4°C on Thursday night and near +2°C on Friday night.

Long Range Outlook

Cloudy conditions will persist through Saturday and into Sunday with more chances for some light rain shower activity. Winnipeg may see some sunshine mixed in through the day on Sunday, however the overall trend is for mixed to cloudy conditions to continue right into next week. No major rain systems are on the horizon, but the occasional chance of light showers is forecast to return here and there over the next week.

Overall signals are weak at the moment, but it appears that there is a chance of cooler weather moving in the middle of next week with a return to highs in the low single digits.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 7°C while the seasonal overnight low is -3°C.

Cooler Temperatures with Variable Cloudiness Ahead

Winnipeg will see below-seasonal temperatures alongside variable cloudiness to start the week as a series of Arctic highs move through the Prairies.

Winnipeg will see mainly cloudy skies today as a weak disturbance moves through the region. The city will see a chance of more drizzle this morning. By midday the potential for drizzle will taper off, leaving Winnipeg with mostly cloudy skies. Winds will remain light through the day with a high near 12°C. The cloud cover should begin to break up overnight as temperatures head to a low near 5°C.

Unstable, saturated low-levels will bring the chance of drizzle to Winnipeg on Monday morning.
Unstable, saturated low-levels will bring the chance of drizzle to Winnipeg on Monday morning.

Tuesday will bring slightly warmer temperatures, but they will still fall short of seasonal values. Under partly cloudy to mixed skies, the temperature in Winnipeg will climb to a high near 15°C. Like Monday, the northerly winds will remain light. Skies will cloud over Tuesday night with a slight chance of showers as temperatures head to a low near 6°C.

Wednesday will bring mixed to mostly cloudy skies as Winnipeg finds itself between a weak upper-level disturbance to the south an Arctic high moving through central Manitoba. Temperatures will climb up to a high near 14°C with light winds continuing out of the north. Skies will remain mostly cloudy on Wednesday night ahead of the next low pressure system that will impact the region. Temperatures will head to a low near 6°C again.

Long Range Outlook

The second half of the week may to bring a return to unsettled conditions. A potent low pressure system developing over the United States is forecast to push into northern Minnesota on Thursday, spreading an area of rain across southern Manitoba. Early indications suggest that significant accumulations of 15 to 40 mm are possible with this system under its heaviest rain bands. It should move out for the end of the week, but cool temperatures are forecast to remain right through the weekend.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 18°C while the seasonal overnight low is 6°C.

Seasonal Conditions To Be Ousted Mid-Week By Arctic Cold Front

Winnipeg will see a couple more days of near-seasonal temperatures before a cold front swings through on Wednesday. Behind the passage of the cold front, a cooler Arctic air mass will settle over the region, bringing March to a close with significantly cooler-than-seasonal temperatures.

Mostly cloudy skies will continue in Winnipeg today with light winds and a high near +2°C. Temperatures will down to a low near -3°C tonight under mostly cloudy skies as well. A low pressure system moving through northern Manitoba tonight will bring westerly winds into the Red River Valley for Tuesday, which will help clear out the cloud cover and bring some sunshine back to the region. Temperatures should reach a high near +4 or +5°C, but with fairly warm temperatures aloft in advance of the next low pressure system, isolated areas with less snow cover could see temperatures as warm as +7 or +8°C.

RDPS 2m Temperature valid 00Z Wednesday March 28, 2018
Temperatures will vary between 0°C and +8°C across southern Manitoba on Tuesday

As the next low pressure system pushes into southern Manitoba on Tuesday night, more cloud will build back into the region with southerly winds of 15 to 25 km/h. There may be a passing shower or flurry on Tuesday evening, then temperatures will head towards a low near -1°C. The centre of the low pressure system will move through the Red River Vally on Tuesday night, bringing with it what looks like a fair chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle, depending on exactly what the temperature is at the time.

Forecast sounding for CWYG valid 09Z Wednesday March 28, 2018
Drizzle will be a distinct possibility on Tuesday night with a risk of freezing drizzle as temperatures drop below freezing Wednesday early Wednesday morning

Wednesday will see any remaining drizzle dissipate in the morning as a cold front slumps southwards. Temperatures will drop in the wake of the front to near -3°C by the evening as northwesterly winds of 30 to 40 km/h usher in a colder air mass. The cloud cover should break up on Wednesday night as temperatures drop to a low near -12°C.

Long Range Outlook

The remainder of March into the start of April will bring well below-seasonal temperatures to the region.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid April 2 to 9, 2018
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid April 2 to 9, 2018

The remainder of the week into the weekend is looking unseasonably cold with daytime highs in the mid-minus to low-minus single digits and overnight lows in the -15 to -20°C range. The cold will linger at least through the beginning of next week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 3°C while the seasonal overnight low is -8°C.

Cool, Soggy Weather Slow to Leave

Although Winnipeg has seen most of the rain the city will receive during this unsettled period, the cool and soggy weather will remain in place for a couple days yet before improving for the latter half of the week.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy1 across the central and eastern Red River Valley today ahead of yet another disturbance that will lift northwards through the American Plains towards southern Manitoba. Under the cloud, there will be a continued chance for drizzle, particularly through the morning hours. The areas that may even see very heavy drizzle or showers will be south of Lake Winnipeg, where the warm lake waters will enhance the intensity of the precipitation. Temperatures will continue cool today with highs near 12°C with winds out of the north at 15-25 km/h. Skies will remain cloudy tonight with a continued chance for drizzle. Temperatures will drop to a low near 7°C while winds diminish to light.

Winnipeg NAM Forecast Sounding valid 12Z Monday September 25, 2017
Deep low-level moisture will help to sustain periods of drizzle until midday Monday.

Tuesday will bring more rain to southeastern Manitoba as another disturbance moves through Minnesota. While the rain moves through the southeastern corner of the province, portions of the Red River Valley will see a chance of rain, mainly due to uncertainty about how far west the rain will actually reach. Winds will remain light as temperatures head to a high near 12°C once again.

The rain will taper off by evening as the light winds shift to the west and temperatures drop to a low near 6°C. Skies will clear overnight.

Some models are keeping much of the rain east of the Red River Valley, while others pull westwards.

Wednesday will finally bring sunny conditions back to the region with clear skies in the morning giving way to partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Temperatures will be quite a bit warmer with highs near 19 or 20°C and westerly winds of 10-20 km/h.

Temperatures will once again drop to a low near 6°C on Wednesday night with skies clouding up again. An upper-level disturbance will swing across the Red River Valley from west to east overnight, likely bringing another batch of rain to the region with 5-10 mm possible, although amounts will likely taper off quickly to the south of the line, likely leaving portions of the southern valley with no rain.

Long Range

The latter half of the week looks to return to more seasonal temperatures as northwesterly winds move back into the region behind Wednesday night’s disturbance and a large ridge of high pressure moves in. There may end up being a significant frost risk at some point later in the week, but we’ll have to just wait and see how cool things are able to get underneath the ridge of high pressure.

There’s some indication that more unsettled conditions will move back into the region on weekend or early next week as another upper-level trough digs over the American Rockies.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 16°C while the seasonal overnight low is 4°C.

  1. Some sunshine will likely work into the western Red River Valley; if it manages to push further east, Winnipeg may end up seeing a bit more sun.