More wet weather is on the way to Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as a slow-moving upper-level disturbance bears down on Southern Manitoba. The bulk of the rainfall associated with this next system will be quite a bit more concentrated than last week’s Colorado Low with much of the precipitation being produced by a single, relatively narrow band of moderate rainfall sliding across the region.
Winnipeg will see a high of around 12°C today with cloudy skies through the day. Shower activity will push northwards through the Red River Valley over the morning hours bringing a decent chance of some rain to Winnipeg by mid-to-late afternoon. Winds will be breezy out of the southeast at around 30km/h with a bit of gustiness on top.
Clouds will stick around tonight as the temperature drops to around 7°C with a continued slight chance of showers through much of the overnight period. The next disturbance will move into Southern Manitoba late overnight, spreading rain from SW to NE starting near the Pilot Mound/SW RRV region and lifting towards Winnipeg.
The NAM is forecasting around 10-15mm of rain for much of the Red River Valley on Thursday, with some areas seeing as much as 20-25mm.
Thursday will start off as a fairly rainy morning, then see rain taper off from west to east through the afternoon. Skies will remain cloudy through the day with winds out of the east. Expect a high near 13°C. The low on Thursday night will be around 7°C under mainly cloudy skies.
When all is said and done, it’s possible we’ll see somewhere from 10–20mm of fresh rain, however this entire system may end up shifting slightly further west which would leave the Red River Valley fairly dry until remnant showers pass through on Thursday night. We’ll be sure to keep tabs on things as they develop through the day and update with the most likely outcome later tonight.
Friday will bring a break from the gloomy weather as things clear out through the morning, leaving us with sunshine and a high near 19°C and light winds.
Long Range
This weekend will bring another disturbance through the region that has the potential to produce a significant amount of rainfall – 25–50mm – however there’s still a lot of uncertainty associated with the system and many divergent model solutions at the moment. It will likely be a generally unsettled week at best, and potentially a downright rainy one at worst. Some forecasts are showing some fairly favourable convective parameters on Saturday that would hint towards the first significant thunderstorm day of the year, but a decent capping inversion looks to keep things at bay as long as the current forecasts hold out.
The brief cool-down in the wake of a relatively short-lived, but potent storm will come to an end this weekend thanks to another low pressure system moving across the Prairies that will bring a warm front across the province over the next couple days.
Friday
-1°C / -7°C
Mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries
Saturday
7°C / 1°C
Increasingly cloudy & windy
Sunday
7°C / -2°C
Clearing & windy
Today will see cloud moving in through the morning as a weak disturbance moves into western Manitoba. While this system will bring 2–4cm of snow west of the Red River Valley, here in Winnipeg we’ll see just a slight chance of a light flurry or two. Further west in the Red River Valley – near Portage la Prairie S/SE down towards Morden & Winkler – will likely see a bit of light snow today, but no significant accumulations from it. Winds will be around 20km/h or so out of the south and Winnipeg will see a high temperature near –1°C. Skies will clear this evening as temperatures head to a low near –7°C.
Saturday will be a warm but windy day as a warm front moves into the Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb to an above-normal[1] 7°C under increasingly cloudy skies. Winds will pick up fairly early in the day and strengthen out of the south to 40–50km/h.
Saturday Night
1°C
Rain overnight
A low pressure system will track through Manitoba on Saturday night. The biggest impact from this storm will be felt in Central and Northern Manitoba where up to 10cm of snow may fall. Further south, we’ll see an area of rain move across the region beginning early Saturday evening and tapering off sometime mid-overnight.
Generally speaking, somewhere between 2–5mm of rain is likely to fall. Winds will taper off in the evening as the Red River Valley moves into the trough of this system, and then pick up again out of the northwest once the low passes. The wind will likely strengthen to around 40km/h by Sunday morning.
12hr. accumulated precipitation amounts forecasted by the GDPS for Saturday night.
Sunday will see clearing skies and a high once again near 7°C. Winds will remain strong out of the northwest at 40–50km/h into the early afternoon before tapering off.
Long Range
The long-range forecast looks quite nice through the first half of next week. Both Monday & Tuesday look to bring fairly sunny skies and highs somewhere in the 5–10°C range. Things take a bit of a turn mid-week when a low pressure system is forecast to move across the Prairies and potentially bring another snow event to the Red River Valley.
Normal daytime highs for this time of year in Winnipeg are near +3°C. ↩
A potent spring storm is moving into Manitoba today and will likely exit the region known as one of the strongest of the Winter 2014/15 season. This storm has already brought drizzle, rain and freezing rain to southwestern Manitoba & the Red River Valley and will end up delivering the whole wintery mix by the time all is said and done. Environment Canada has issued a swath of heavy snowfall warnings and special weather statements across Manitoba in advance of this system.
Tuesday Night
Tuesday Night
-1°C
Rain changing to snow
Rain will redevelop this evening and persist through much of the overnight period until a cold front pushes through the Red River Valley and switches the precipitation over to snow. Many areas in the Red River Valley will see around 5-10mm of rain. Alongside the switchover to snow, strong northwesterly winds to 40-50km/h with gusts as high as 70km/h will begin to move into the Red River Valley. The combination of falling snow and strong winds, coupled with the temperature dropping below zero overnight after a day of melting, drizzle & rain will likely produce very poor driving conditions with slippery roads & poor visibilities in blowing snow by Wednesday morning.
Wednesday
Wednesday
⇒ -2°C / -11°C
Snow ending in the afternoon; windy
Snow will continue through Wednesday morning before beginning to taper off through the afternoon with a further 5-10cm possible for the City of Winnipeg and the Red River Valley. As mentioned before, the snow will be accompanied by strong northwesterly winds to 40-50km/h which will produce a fair amount of blowing snow as well. Temperatures will drop just barely to -2 or -3°C through the day. Given the relatively mild temperatures, it’s quite likely that as soon as the snow begins to taper off, the blowing snow will too; falling snow will be needed to produce it and it’s unlikely we’ll see much ground-based blowing snow after the fact. Winds will begin to taper off late in the afternoon or in the early evening as the storm moves off into Ontario. Left behind the storm will be partly cloudy skies as temperatures drop to around -11°C.
Storm Update
As expected, many regions across Manitoba saw a significant dump of snow overnight and into this morning. Snowfall totals to 10:30AM CDT across Manitoba are:
Location
Snowfall Amount
Winnipeg
5cm
Portage la Prairie
5-10cm
Brandon
6cm
Steinbach
5cm
Dauphin
15-25cm
Rossburn
20cm
McCreary
18cm
Neepawa
15cm
Fisher Branch
15cm
Roblin
14cm
Elkhorn
10cm
Argyle
10cm
Swan River
8cm
Miami
6cm
Morris
2cm
In addition to the heavy snow, many areas through the Red River Valley saw several hours of rain last night. Here in Winnipeg, around 8mm fell overnight, and preliminary reports indicate that similar amounts were seen through much of the Red River Valley. In addition to the snow and rain, very strong winds to 50-60km/h moved into Red River Valley this morning producing blowing snow and helping make sure roads are slick.
Two semi-trucks were involved in a MVC 5km east of Elie. (Credit: @HeatherWellsCBC)
A school bus rolled on Highway 75 near St. Adolphe this morning. (Credit: @HeatherWellsCBC)
The winter weather has wreaked havoc on area infrastructure with numerous accidents on highways as well as complications to power infrastructure with numerous pole fires & power line damage events reported. Many motor-vehicle collisions were reported on Manitoba Highways, with several resulting in sections of Highways 1 and 75 being closed. Two of the more significant ones, pictured above, involved a jackknifed semi-truck collision near Elie and a school bus rollover near Ste. Agathe on Highway 75.
Conditions have begun to improve in the Red River Valley; winds remain strong however with the snow finally moving off into Ontario, much of the blowing snow has stopped. Road conditions will continue to be poor through the remainder of the day, so if you are driving, especially on area highways, be sure to give yourself extra time and be cautious.
Thursday
Thursday
-6°C / -11°C
Partly cloudy
Thursday will be a mainly sunny day – perhaps just a few lingering clouds – with a cool high of just -6°C. Winds will be light, so with the increasingly strong March sun it may not actually feel all that bad outside. Even with the sub-zero temperatures, expect plenty of melting to happen. We head into Thursday night with clear skies and cool off to around -10 or -11°C again overnight, although that could be a couple degrees warmer depending on when cloud cover arrives from…
Friday
Friday
-3°C / -8°C
Mainly cloudy with a chance of light snow
Friday will bring mainly cloudy skies as clouds push in either early Friday morning or late overnight on Thursday thanks to a system rippling through Southern Manitoba from the northwest. It will most likely produce a band of snow through portions of the Parkland, Southwest and into the Western Red River Valley. Under this band, accumulations of 1-2cm look possible at this time. There’s a little uncertainty as to the exact track, given that it’s 3.5 days out at this point, so it may end up a little further west or east. With the current “most likely” track, Winnipeg sees a fairly decent chance at some flurries but little in the way of accumulations. Temperatures will climb to around -3°C with fairly light winds. Friday night looks pleasant with light winds again and a low near -8°C.
Long Range
It’s looking as if another storm is possible on Saturday night as a shortwave tracks across Manitoba.
The GDPS is forecasting a fair amount of precipitation associated with a significant storm moving through Manitoba this weekend.
Fortunately, it seems like it will be bringing enough warm air with it that precipitation would fall as rain. Either way, though, it looks like we’ll see plenty of cloud and wind this weekend. After a long spell of little in the way of weather, it looks like a typical, more active springtime pattern is setting up!
A storm system tracking through Manitoba today will bring one last shot of warmer weather alongside some rain before a major pattern shift plunges much of central and eastern North America into a substantial outbreak of Arctic air.
This map of 850mb winds and temperatures shows a potent cold front pushing through Southern Manitoba this afternoon.
Friday: Windy and Rainy Afternoon
Friday
8°C / -5°C
Rain ending early this morning; windy with showers this afternoon
Today will start off with overnight rain tapering off fairly early in the morning; the temperature will start off around 2°C and climb to a high of 7 or 8°C under mostly cloudy skies. There’s a slight chance of a few sunny breaks in the morning to midday, but it won’t take too long until the cold front comes sweeping through the Red River Valley.
Winds will strengthen dramatically out of the northwest through the afternoon from nearly calm winds at lunch time to around 40-50km/h with gusts as high as 70km/h. Along with the strong winds, a band of showers will move through with just a few mm expected. Temperatures will drop behind the cold front heading to a low of around -5°C tonight.[1]
Lake-effect snow may rear its head as well tonight as the northwesterlies bring the significantly cooler air over the still-open lakes. Areas in the lee of the lakes may see lake-effect snow develop sometime late in the evening through the overnight period. It looks like Winnipeg will miss out on the lake-effect activity, but we’ll keep an eye on things as they develop this evening.
Significantly Cooler Weekend
Saturday
-2°C / -6°C
Mixed skies, breezy and cool
Sunday
-2°C / -9°C
Mainly sunny
The weekend ahead will be marked by the beginning of a move into a much cooler air mass. Saturday will be a breezy, cool day with northwesterly winds 20-30km/h and a high near -2°C. Winnipeg will sit near the northern edge of a large bank of cloud stretching through Saskatchewan into North Dakota & Minnesota, which should result in mainly cloudy skies. A few sunny breaks are likely, however if things shift a bit further south the day could end up being a whole lot sunnier.
Under any of the cloud stretching through the Red River Valley, some very light flurry activity is possible. No accumulations are expected.
Temperatures will drop to around -6°C under clearing skies on Saturday night.
Sunday will bring mainly sunny skies and lighter winds as a ridge of high pressure sets up over the region. We had mentioned the chance for snow on Sunday in our last post, but as suspected all models are now pushing it well to our south. Expect a daytime high near -2°C and an overnight low near -9°C.
Even Colder Weather Next Week
Unfortunately, even colder weather is expected to move into the region next week, driving temperatures well below the seasonal high of around 0°C.[2]
The 6-10 day temperature outlook from the CPC shows unquestionable certainty of below-normal temperatures for central and eastern North America.
A prominent upper-level trough will dig over the eastern United States next week, developing a pipeline of Arctic air straight from the North Pole into the central United States. Expect highs in the mid-minus single digits and lows near -10°C or so. No major systems are forecast to track through, and it appears that most snow that may show up will either be lake-effect or general light flurry activity. The lack of snow cover should help our temperatures from dropping too far, particularly at night.
Plus or minus a degree or two depending exactly on cloud cover. ↩
Although one could say that in Novemeber, more than most months, “seasonal” or “normal” temperatures are just an average of extremes. ↩
