Another bout of ugly winter weather is on the way this week as two back-to-back systems bring more snow to southern Manitoba.
Today will be one of the nicer days this week, although that’s not saying much. We should see mainly sunny skies and temperatures just below the freezing mark, which is almost 10C below normal for this time of year. Winds will be light as we’ll be stuck under a surface high pressure system.
A strong low pressure system will bring snow to southern Manitoba on Tuesday
The weather will begin to turn ugly early on Tuesday morning as a low pressure system pushes snow into southern Manitoba. A band of moderate to heavy snow is expected on Tuesday morning as the system initially pushes into the region. This band will likely persist for only a few hours before snow rates become lighter. However, light snow is expected to continue off and on for most of Tuesday, pushing total snow accumulations into the 5-10 cm by the time this system moves out late on Tuesday. Gusty north winds are expected to develop on Tuesday night, causing poor visibility in open areas.
Wednesday will see yet another low pressure system bring additional snow to southern Manitoba. This round of snow is expected to push in later in the day, bringing another 2-6 cm by Thursday morning. It’s a bit early to be very confident in the amount of snowfall this system will bring, so check back for updates as the week progresses.
Long Range
The long range forecast doesn’t show any indication of improving weather for the next while. Conditions are generally expected to remain at or below normal for most of the first half of April. More snow isn’t out of the question either, so don’t take off those snow tires just yet!
There’s no joke here; April will be off to a cool start as a surge of Arctic air moves into Southern Manitoba today, bringing temperatures 5-10°C below normal to the region through the weekend.
Today will bring a potent little low pressure system that will spread cloud into Winnipeg & the Red River Valley through the morning as it approaches from the northwest. Temperatures will climb to a high near 0°C as snow moves into the region through the afternoon. The bulk of the snow will fall through the late afternoon and early evening, with around 2-4cm expected across the region.
Behind the low pressure system, a cold front surges southwards and very strong northerly winds are expected to move through the Red River Valley, with the strongest winds occurring between around 9PM and 2AM. The winds will peak with sustained winds of 50-60km/h and gusts as high as 80km/h. As the winds taper off overnight, skies will clear and temperatures will drop to a low near -9°C.
A core of very strong winds is expected over the Red River Valley on Friday evening.
Saturday will be a calmer day that acts as a brief reprieve while the next low pressure system organizes over the western Prairies. The day will start off fairly sunny, but more cloud will begin moving in from the northwest through the afternoon as the next system begins approaching the province. Daytime highs will sit near -1°C with light winds. Temperatures will fall to around -6°C on Saturday night with some light snow building into the region. Winds will pick up out of the east through the night.
Sunday will bring some more snow to the region as the next low passes through. The organized snowfall will taper off through the morning then diminish to some flurries through Sunday afternoon. Daytime highs will be near 0°C with winds shifting to the north through the afternoon.
A swath of 2-4cm of snow is expected across south-central and south-eastern Manitoba later today.
By the time all is said and done, it looks like this second system will produce another 2-4cm of snow in Winnipeg, however some models hint at some more intense snowfall possible with this system; we’ll keep an eye on it as it develops. Skies will clear out on Sunday night with temperatures dropping to -9°C or so on Sunday night.
Long Range
Temperatures will continue below-normal into the start of next week. The biggest story, though, is the chance for a major winter storm early next week.
The GDPS is showing a major winter storm on Tuesday
Several models are picking up on a storm system moving through Southern Manitoba on Tuesday that will bring windy conditions alongside the potential for 10-20cm of snow. It’s too early to get into many specifics but this system would bring rain, freezing rain and snow into the province. We’ll be keeping an eye on this one and have more details in Monday’s forecast!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -6°C.
We’ll see one more nice day today before a potentially significant weather system affects us on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain and snow is expected in southern Manitoba with this system, but exact amounts remain unclear.
Today will be another very nice day. Temperatures will climb into the mid teens over much of southern Manitoba, allowing our snow melt to continue. Many rural parts of southern Manitoba are already snow-free, but there is still snow to melt in sheltered areas. Skies will be mainly sunny, with breezy south-east winds.
A major low pressure system will affect southern Manitoba this week
A major low pressure system is expected to affect southern Manitoba on Tuesday and Wednesday. This system will bring a combination of rain and snow, which makes it difficult to forecast. At this time it appears that rain will be the main mode of precipitation over the Red River Valley. Models disagree widely on potential accumulation, so it is difficult to say exactly how much rain will fall. A “best guess” is that Winnipeg will see about 5-15 mm of rain. More or less rain could fall depending on how the system evolves.
We will continue to be under the influence of this system on Wednesday, but temperatures will fall as we experience a stiff north-westerly flow. As a result of this cold air surging in from the north, rain is expected to change over to snow, with a couple centimetres of accumulation being possible. The exact amount of snow will depend on how much the system stalls over our area and how much cold air manages to infiltrate southern Manitoba. High temperatures on Wednesday are currently expected to be near 2C, which would not favour large accumulations.
Long Range
The end of the week is expected to be colder as the system from earlier in the week pulls down colder air from the north. Longer range models suggest that the second half of March will see a cooler pattern with outbreaks of colder arctic air. However, if we remain mainly snow-free following this week’s system, it will be difficult for very cold conditions to last long as the darker soil will be able to absorb much more sunlight than snow would.
The sunny weather is arriving later than expected in Winnipeg no thanks to persistent low cloud that simply wouldn’t leave the region despite clear skies working in on either side of the Red River Valley. With that behind us, though, the warm weather arrives today alongside plenty of sunshine for what will be the start to a beautiful weekend in the Winnipeg area.
A fairly pleasant day is on the way today with the sun finally making an appearance, sending temperatures well above normal and close to record values. The mercury will climb towards the 10°C mark this afternoon, slightly short of the record value of 12.8°C that was at in 2012. The wind will be fairly gusty out of the south this morning and will shift to breezy out of the west behind a warm front that passes through midday.
Skies will be mixed as some remnants of yesterday’s low cloud clear out and are replaced by variable cloud from the warm front moving through the region. We will see sunshine today, particularly once the drier westerly winds kick in and flush out any remaining moisture stuck in the Valley.
The overnight low is expected to dip down to around -1°C tonight under partly cloudy skies and diminishing winds.
Saturday will be the nicest day of the of the weekend with partly cloudy skies, relatively light winds and very mild temperatures. The daytime high on Saturday will climb to around 10-11°C, a potentially record-breaking high for March 12th.
Mild air continues to flow over Southern Manitoba on Saturday night as southerly winds increase ahead of an incoming trough of low pressure. Winds will increase to around 30-40km/h late Saturday. The warmer air moving in alongside the wind will keep overnight lows fairly mild; the temperature will dip only to 2 or 3°C on Saturday night.
The GDPS precipitation forecast for Sunday afternoon into the evening.
Sunday will be a mild day but the weather will turn cloudier and potentially wet. A trough of low pressure moving into the province will result in a cloudier day with a high once again near 11°C. Heading into the afternoon, the chance for some rain will increase throughout the Red River Valley and areas east. Significant rainfall is not expected[1], but for the areas that end up seeing any precipitation, a few mm may be possible. The cloud will help temperatures remain very mild on Sunday night with temperatures expected to dip to near 4°C.
New Record Temperatures?
We have the potential of breaking some record temperatures over the next few days, particularly on Saturday and Sunday.
Daily Record High and Record Warm Minimum Temperatures for Winnipeg, MB
Date
Record High
Record Warm Min
March 11
12.8°C (2012)
2.8°C (1878)
March 12
9.7°C (2012)
2.5°C (2012)
March 13
12.2°C (1902)
1.6°C (1995)
Saturday’s high near 10°C will challenge the 3 year old record from 2012. Saturday night’s low near 2 or 3°C combined with Sunday night’s low near 4°C may challenge the record warmest low temperature for March 13, which currently sits at 1.6°C and was set in 1995.
Sunday’s high temperature is not expected to reach the current record of 12.2°C set in 1902. The low near -1°C on Friday night will prevent the record warm low temperature for March 12th of 2.5°C set in 2012 from being broken.
Long Range: Mild & Unsettled
Heading into next week the forecast is for continued warmth for the first half of the week and then a return towards seasonal values through the second half.
GDPS forecast temperatures for Winnipeg, MB
Regarding precipitation, most of any potential will be tied up in a mid-week low pressure system that will usher in the cooler temperatures. It appears like it will be a complex mess of multiple low pressure systems merging into a vortex over Northern Ontario, so at this point it would be an exercise in futility to try and make any guesses on what any one place will see from that system. It’s probably safe to say that there will be a chance for rain changing to snow mid-week.
But, before then, enjoy the spring warmth!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -12°C.
Although, as shown above, the GDPS is forecasting convective elements that could produce 10-20mm of rain, I’m not convinced at this point that potential will be realized. I’ll post an update in the comments below if Sunday looks like it may produce some heavier showers. ↩
