The hottest weather of the year will give way to a return to unsettled conditions with multiple low pressure systems tracking through the province over the next week.
Temperatures will soar over the next few days as very warm air moves into the region alongside increasing dew points, resulting in some blisteringly hot weather. The decidedly summer-like weather will be short-lived, though, as a system moving through on Saturday puts southern Manitoba back into an unsettled pattern with multiple follow-up low pressure systems expected over the coming week.
Start the Warm-Up
Today will mark the start of a significant warm-up. Southerly winds at 20-30km/h will help our dew point rise through the day to around 20°C, making it feel fairly muggy outside by the end of the day. The temperature will climb to around 28°C, which will feel more like 35 or 36 with the humidity factored in.
There will be a very slight chance of a shower midday or early in the afternoon. The evening looks quite nice at this point, and then Winnipeg & the Red River Valley will see a chance of a thunderstorm overnight. The low will be around 19 or 20°C.
UPDATE: A discussion on today/tonight’s thunderstorm potential is available below in the comments.
Saturday: Sweltering Heat and Severe Storms
Make sure your A/C is in tip-top shape, because Saturday is going to be a scorcher. Even warmer air will push into the region on Friday night, making high temperatures on Saturday soar all the way into the low 30’s. Here in Winnipeg, the daytime high should sit somewhere close to 32°C. When combined with the humidity, it will feel more like 40 or 41 outside, easily making it the warmest day of the year so far. Winds will be fairly light out of the south shifting to westerly at around 20km/h.
UPDATE: A discussion on today/tonight’s thunderstorm potential is available below in the comments.
All that heat and humidity does mean there will be a risk for severe thunderstorms. At this point it there’s still a fair amount of uncertainty as to whether or not storms will develop or not, so we’re going to wait until tomorrow to do a detailed thunderstorm outlook. In general, most storm parameters look quite favourable, but a strong capping inversion will be in place in the low-levels. Two potential triggers will need to be watched:
- A weak cold front slumping southwards through the day – I don’t think this is very likely to trigger much.
- A shortwave and associated jet maximum moving along the international border overnight.
If any thunderstorms develop, they will likely be severe. The main threats will be torrential rain[1], large hail and strong winds. Right now it seems most likely that thunderstorms will hold off until overnight, but we’ll take a closer look later today and add a thunderstorm outlook to this post.
Sunday Showers?
Sunday will be a generally unsettled day with a risk of showers or thunderstorms as a cold front pushes across the province. Winds will pick up out of the west to around 40-50km/h as we head to a high of around 26°C. Severe weather is not expected right now, but the showers or thunderstorms moving through the region could be heavy/strong.
Winds will stay strong through the night as temperatures dip to the mid-teens.
Unsettled Week Ahead
There will be plenty of chances for showers or thunderstorms in the coming week. Right now it looks like the best chances are Monday, Tuesday night, then Friday. Highs will likely be in the mid-20’s with lows in the mid-teens and the humidity will remain at more comfortable levels.
- Yes, especially because we need more rain. ↩
