Mild Weather Continues

This week will remain mild with temperatures generally on the positive side of zero. However, there will be a chance for precipitation on Tuesday.

Today will see a continuation of Sunday’s warm weather. High temperatures will be in the mid single digits in the Red River Valley, and perhaps a bit higher over the snow-free area to our west. Skies over the Red River Valley will be a mixture of sun and cloud, while conditions over western Manitoba are mainly cloudy. The only wrinkle in today’s forecast is the potential for fog tonight, aided by the additional moisture generated by the snow melt.

A low pressure will pass to our south on Tuesday, bringing rain and snow to southern Manitoba. At this point it looks like precipitation over south-eastern Manitoba will primarily come in the from of rain. The Red River Valley will probably see a mix of rain and snow, while western Manitoba sees primarily snow. Large amounts of rain/snow are not expected, but models hint at the potential for localized bands of moderate precipitation which could bump up totals in some areas. Most areas will probably see 3-6 mm of accumulation, in the form of rain and/or snow.

RDPS MSLP & 3hr. QPF valid Tuesday morning.
A weak Colorado Low will bring precipitation to the Red River Valley on Tuesday.

Wednesday will be a slightly cooler day as a colder air mass surges southward behind Tuesday’s departing low pressure system. High temperatures will be near the freezing mark with breezy north winds.

Long Range

The long range forecast shows no indication of winter returning. Models strongly suggest that most, if not all, of March will be seasonably warm. Enjoy the snow now, it may not last much longer!


Scott grew up in Steinbach, Manitoba and joined A Weather Moment in January of 2012. Prior to his involvement with AWM he operated a website called Steinbach Weather, from 2007 until 2011. Steinbach Weather had many similarities to AWM, making for a smooth transition to his new meteorological home. Scott currently writes the Monday morning at AWM and also contributes to some of the unique products available at AWM, including the Manitoba Mesonet. Scott holds a B.Sc. (Hons) in Physical Geography from the University of Manitoba, with specialization in Atmospheric Science. He is currently working on a Master's Degree at the University of Manitoba, with a focus on elevated convection.

4 thoughts to “Mild Weather Continues”

  1. Will the daytime temps continue to be above 0? I collect maple sap, and it starts flowing when the days are above and the nights below. I have already inserted most of my taps and hung up buckets, after I saw your forecast on Saturday, and woke up to the beautiful weather and snow melting yesterday :).

    1. Tuesday & Wednesday will see temperatures near 0, but after that, it looks like a very nice stretch of daytime highs above 0, possibly persisting for the next 2 weeks. Overnight lows will likely dip below 0, but there are hints that we could see several nights with lows at or just above 0! I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see most or all of our snow gone within the next 2 weeks.

  2. Weather Update for Tuesday’s Colorado Low over Southern Manitoba

    As mentioned in our latest blog post
    (, Tuesday
    will bring the potential for rain or snow to Winnipeg & the Red River
    Valley as a as Colorado Low strengthens tonight and crosses through the
    Dakotas towards Lake of the Woods.

    This system will have two “phases” that Southern Manitoba will
    experience. The first phase will occur tonight as the preliminary area
    of synoptic lift pushes northwards over the province as an inverted
    trough develops up the Red River Valley from the low center in the
    Dakotas. The initial weather that we’ll experience through the Red
    River Valley is the rapid development of cloud and the chance for
    drizzle, light rain and fog patches. This will spread eastwards into
    the Whiteshell as well through the overnight period. No significant
    precipitation is expected through our region with most of the organized
    activity remaining to our north ahead of the advancing upper-level warm

    Mid-level instability is expected to develop overnight as the synoptic
    lift intensifies, and there has been some question of the potential for
    thunderstorm development. While even here in Winnipeg there will be
    some instability that develops overnight, much of the forcing that could
    support and sustain elevated convection (such as frontogenetic forcing
    and lift associated with the LLJ) will remain to our SE in the Dakotas
    and Minnesota. The Sprague region looks to get clipped by these two
    forcing features, though, and they may see some weak thunderstorm
    activity overnight into the morning. The most likely situation I see at
    this point is elevated convection developing through eastern North
    Dakota and then spreading northeastwards through Minnesota; some of it
    may clip SE Manitoba.

    Tomorrow will be the second phase of this system that will see
    precipitation develop along a cold front that surges southwards behind
    the low pressure center. This will likely result in a relatively narrow
    band of rain and/or snow that develops through central North Dakota and
    spreads northeastwards through the Red River Valley and into the
    Whiteshell. The exact placement of this will be fairly important as the
    northwestern edge of the precipitation will likely be quite sharp as
    moisture butts up against the low’s deformation zone.

    At this point, it looks like much of the precipitation will remain to
    the south and east of Winnipeg, however it’s close enough that we may
    see some or [if the system ends up a bit further northwest] all of it.
    It’s expected to be convective in nature, which means it will likely be
    fairly heavy at times. If any falls as snow, it’s likely that
    visibilities would be severely restricted in heavy snowfall and the
    change could be quite abrupt. Along with the precipitation, strong
    northwesterly winds up to 50 gusting 70km/h will move into the Red River

    The precipitation will taper off through midday & the afternoon as it
    pushes off into Ontario.

    After a brief cool-down with temperatures near- to slightly
    above-seasonal, significantly above-normal temperatures are expected to
    return to Manitoba for much of the coming 2 weeks.

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