Weather Forecasts, Facts and News for Winnipeg & Southern Manitoba
Author: Brad
Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.
A brief reprieve from the cooler temperatures seen of late in Winnipeg is on the way as unsettled weather returns to the region in the second half of the week. Unfortunately, it looks like a return to slightly below-normal temperatures is on the way for the weekend into next week.
Today will be a pleasant day continuing the trend of the past several days. Plenty of sun will be around with just a few clouds throughout the day as temperatures climb to a high near +1°C. Winds will be a little breezy first thing but will diminish by midday as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region. Temperatures will dip to around -6°C tonight for the overnight low.
Thursday will see above-normal temperatures return to the Red River Valley as a low pressure system moves into the region from the northwest and spreads milder Pacific air eastwards into the southern portions of the province. This will bring daytime highs up to around +5°C, several degrees warmer than the -2 to 0°C highs of late.
Thursday will also bring moderate southerlies as we often see with the approach of warmer weather. The wind will be relatively calm in the morning, but increase to around 30-40km/h by the afternoon.
As the low pressure system approaches, cloud cover will thicken from just scattered clouds in the morning to cloudy by mid-afternoon. Rain shower activity will move into the Red River Valley through the afternoon period and persist overnight.
The NAM forecast for Thursday reveals a broad low pressure system that will bring milder air into Manitoba.
The chance for precipitation will continue Thursday night as temperatures drop to a low near -2°C. As temperatures drop below freezing, any rain showers will switch to snow flurries.
Friday will see fairly steady temperatures with a daytime high of 0°C a slight recovery from the overnight low. The chance for flurries will persist into the afternoon under mainly cloudy skies. Gusty northerly winds will pick up on Friday morning to 30-40km/h ushering in cooler temperatures that will drive Friday night’s temperature to around the -10°C mark.
Long Range
The weekend looks relatively quiet with near-seasonal temperatures and variable cloudiness.
The bigger weather story on the horizon is a system that will move through southern Manitoba & the northern plains of the U.S. in the second half of next week.
Details of this system are fairly fuzzy at this point, other than saying it will likely be a potent winter storm with a mix of rain, snow and strong wind. At this point, models keep the precipitation in the United States and bring just strong northerlies to our region, but that forecast can easily change over the coming week. The bigger story will be the pattern change that this system will lead into:
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid March 30 – April 06, 2016
Multiple long-range forecasts are showing a high probability of a brief early-April cool snap with temperatures below seasonal values. With daytime highs in the 0 to -5°C range, it won’t exactly be bone-chillingly cold, but it will be well below the seasonal daytime highs near 5-6°C for that time of year.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -9°C.
After a stretch of weather that brought record breaking temperatures, record breaking dew points, and new daily rainfall records[1] before shifting into a weird weather pattern that brought moderate-to-heavy snow to much of southern Manitoba (with a rather beautiful aftermath, pictured above), the weather over the coming days will be downright dull as a benign pattern brings seasonal temperatures to Winnipeg.
In a rather nice change of pace, there isn’t too much to talk about regarding this weekend’s weather. Near-seasonal temperatures will be in place throughout the weekend with daytime highs hovering in the 0 to +2°C range while overnight lows hover between -6 to -8°C. Skies will progressively become more cloudy with a sunny day today, a few clouds tomorrow, and mixed skies on Sunday, but no precipitation is expected. Winds will remain quite calm throughout the weekend with the strongest winds on Sunday at just 20km/h or so.
Long Range: More Active Week Ahead
Next week is looking a little more active with a storm system expected to move through on Monday night & Tuesday. It’s too early to try and pin down too many specifics, but overall it appears that it will spread 5-10cm of snow across Southern Manitoba followed by some gusty northerly winds that may produce some local blowing snow.
The GDPS is showing a solution further south than other long-range models, pushing Tuesday’s system southwards into the United States
Towards the end of next weak it also appears that we may see another weak disturbance produce some light snow over the region.
Temperatures will be fairly consistent next week with daytime highs and overnight lows expected to be near-seasonal.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 0°C while the seasonal overnight low is -10°C.
The shift back to closer-to-seasonal weather will feel like quite an abrupt change given the marked warmth that’s been in place much of March so far. Fortunately, even with the cooler weather, daytime highs will remain above the freezing mark, and with little snow left and not too much expected to fall, it gets harder and harder for the cold air to stick around[1] as the sun continues to increase in strength.
The low pressure that brought yesterday’s rainfall to the Red River Valley will dominate the weather for two more days before things gradually shift to a more neutral set-up.
Some say what goes up must come down, and while not typically true about the weather, today we’ll see the area of precipitation that pushed northwards into Central Manitoba slump back southwards throughout the day as an inverted trough extending west-northwestward a from the main low pressure system in NW Ontario rotates southwards around the low. This will result in some showers and cooler air pushing into the Red River Valley through the day. As the precipitation moves in from the northeast, the rain will—at some point—switch over to snow. The flurries will continue through the evening and overnight before tapering off on Thursday morning.
12hour preciptation accumulations forecasted for Wednesday afternoon & evening from the RDPS.
Temperatures will climb to around 3-4°C this afternoon and then drop with the cooler air to a low near -3°C tonight. Winds will fairly breezy today out of the northwest at around 30 km/h with gusts up to 50km/h or so. To the southwest of Winnipeg, winds will likely be a bit stronger at 40 gusting 60 km/h. The winds will ease tonight as the axis of the inverted trough moves into the region.
Thursday will be an unexciting day compared to the past week. Any lingering flurries will taper off early in the morning and leave Winnipeg with mainly cloudy skies and temperatures gradually climbing towards a high of 2°C. Winds will be out of the north at 20-30km/h. Skies will remain cloudy tonight as temperatures dip to a low near -3°C with winds slowly easing off.
Friday will once again bring mainly cloudy skies and a high temperature near 3°C. Winds will be light and no precipitation is expected. Skies will remain fairly cloudy on Friday night as the temperature drops to a low near -2°C.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -1°C while the seasonal overnight low is -11°C.
Long Range: Continuing Cloudy, Chance of Flurries
Heading into the weekend, it looks like we’ll likely continue to see a fair amount of cloud as a weak trough remains in the region. While Winnipeg won’t likely see any snow, there is a very slight chance of some flurry activity through the region. Should any snow develop, amounts are expected to be minimal and in most cases likely won’t even accumulate. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly above seasonal.
The weather will turn more active next week as a zonal flow develops aloft and multiple shortwaves ripple across the Prairies. Multiple storm systems are forecast to track through next week, each bringing a mix of wintery precipitation. Temperatures will remain slightly warmer than seasonal through the period.
Snow is so effective at keeping temperatures cool due to its white colour. Snow can reflect much of the sun’s energy, limiting the ability for temperatures to warm up. Once the snow cover is reduced or eliminated, the darker ground absorbs more sun and helps temperatures warm up more quickly. ↩
Numerous record were broken across the province from March 11-14, 2016 as abnormal warmth spread across the Southern Prairies. In Winnipeg, the event ended up breaking several record types, including record high temperatures, record high dewpoints, and record daily rainfall amounts.
What caused this anomalous event and what was the overall outcome? Read on to find out!
Upper Ridge Brings Anomalous Warmth to the Prairies
GDPS 500mb height anomalies valid the evening of Saturday March 12, 2016
The entire event was precipitated by an anomalous 500mb ridge over much of North America. This feature introduced a broad southwesterly flow through the western Prairies and northern Plains of the US, allowing mild Pacific air to flood eastwards across the region.
GDPS 850mb temperature anomalies valid the evening of Saturday March 12, 2016
Temperatures ended up well above seasonal values across the entire Prairies. Shown above in the above image, 850mb[1] temperatures were nearly 20°C above normal over southern Manitoba. This translated to very mild temperatures at ground level, with many communities seeing multiple days of record high temperatures.
Southerly Feed Enhances Dew Point Values
Additionally, a weak cut-off low over the central Plains resulted in a enhanced southerly component to low-level winds, which tapped into [relatively] humid air to the south and fed it northwards into the province, evident in the above image that shows that there was a higher-than-normal amount of water in the atmosphere over southern Manitoba.
GDPS precipitable water anomalies valid the evening of Saturday March 12, 2016
This resulted in seasonally high dew points for the region. Winnipeg ended up breaking two maximum dew point records on Saturday March 13 and Monday March 14. The anomalous moisture also brought a heavy London-like fog to the region on Sunday night which resulted in a fog advisory for the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba as near-zero visibilities blanked the area for over 8 hours.
Wet Transition Out of Pattern Breaks Daily Rainfall Records
A deep trough began digging into the Western United States on Monday March 14, developing a deep surface trough extending from Northern Alberta all the way to Texas. Ahead of this trough, a southerly feed tapped into moisture-laden air over the southern United States and began pumping it northwards towards Manitoba. As the system organized over the Dakotas on Monday night, it was able to spawn an area of thunderstorms over North Dakota that blossomed into an area of moderate rain as it pushed eastwards through the night.
Twitter user @DusterMB caught this lightning bolt near Killarney, MB on March 14.
Woodlands RADAR at 8:30AM on Tuesday March 15, 2016
This area of rain pushed through southern Manitoba on Tuesday morning, dumping anywhere from 10-20mm of rain over the region. This resulted in a new daily rainfall record for Winnipeg, breaking the prior record of nearly 70 years.
Record Values
In Winnipeg, 4 records were broken through the period of March 11-15, 2016:
Record high temperature in Winnipeg on Saturday, March 12 (New 12.2°C, old 9.7°C set in 2012)
Record high dewpoint in Winnipeg on Sunday, March 13 (new 7.6°C, old 6.7°C set in 2010)
Record high dewpoint in Winnipeg on Monday, March 14 (new 7.7°C, old 6.2°C set in 2012)
Daily rainfall record in Winnipeg on Tuesday, March 15 (New 15.6 mm, old 11.4 mm set in 1946)
However, numerous record high temperatures were broken throughout Manitoba over the 4-day span. Of note was Melita’s high of 20.5°C on Monday, March 14, which marked the earliest 20°C temperature in Manitoba, beating out the prior record of March 16, set by 13 communities in 2012.
Significant Daily High Temperatures across Southern Manitoba on Friday March 11, 2016
Location
High Temperature
Record High
Record High Year
Type
Gretna
14.8°C
8.7°C
2012
New Record High
Melita
15.8°C
14.6°C
2012
New Record High
Pilot Mound
14.1°C
11.8°C
2012
New Record High
Brandon
13.4°C
13.5°C
1981
Near-Record High
Winnipeg
11.6°C
12.8°C
2012
Near-Record High
Significant Daily High Temperatures across Southern Manitoba on Saturday March 12, 2016
Location
High Temperature
Record High
Record High Year
Type
Brandon
12.0°C
11.7°C
1910
New Record High
Gimli
8.6°C
8.5°C
1994
New Record High
Gretna
13.8°C
11.3°C
2012
New Record High
Melita
15.3°C
9.8°C
2007
New Record High
Pilot Mound
12.1°C
9.9°C
2012
New Record High
Pinawa
12.5°C
10.2°C
1996
New Record High
Winnipeg
12.2°C
9.7°C
2012
New Record High
Significant Daily High Temperatures across Southern Manitoba on Sunday March 13, 2016
Location
High Temperature
Record High
Record High Year
Type
Melita
17.7°C
15.5°C
2012
New Record High
Portage la Prairie
15.0°C
13°C
2012
New Record High
Pilot Mound
15.0°C
13°C
2012
New Record High
Island Lake
12.3°C
11.2°C
2010
New Record High
The Pas
11.4°C
11.1°C
1929
New Record High
Thompson
10.1°C
9.6°C
2012
New Record High
Brandon
15.2°C
15.2°C
2012
Tied Record High
Berens River
9.3°C
10.4°C
2012
Near-Record High
Fisher Branch
7.1°C
9°C
2012
Near-Record High
Gretna
11.4°C
12.3°C
2012
Near-Record High
Norway House
8.2°C
8.8°C
2010
Near-Record High
Significant Daily High Temperatures across Southern Manitoba on Monday March 14, 2016
Significant Weather Events in Winnipeg, March 11-15, 2016
Date
Record Type
Value
Record Value
Record Year
March 11
Near-Record High Temperature
11.6°C
12.8°C
2012
March 12
New Record High Temperature
12.2°C
9.7°C
2012
March 13
New Record High Dewpoint
7.6°C
6.7°C
2010
March 14
New Record High Dewpoint
7.7°C
6.2°C
2012
March 14
Near-Record High Temperature
13.1°C
13.2°C
2015
March 15
New Daily Rainfall Record
15.6 mm
11.4 mm
1946
850mb is approximately 1.5km above the ground. This level is favourable to use for temperature anomalies at the moment because it is mostly free of the influences of snow cover. ↩
Melita’s high temperature of 20.5°C on March 14, 2016 marks the earliest date of a ≥ 20°C temperature in Manitoba. The prior record occurred across 13 sites in the province on March 16, 2012. ↩
