Warmer Weather Returns for the Weekend

The brief cool-down in the wake of a relatively short-lived, but potent storm will come to an end this weekend thanks to another low pressure system moving across the Prairies that will bring a warm front across the province over the next couple days.

Friday
-1°C / -7°C
Mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries

Saturday
7°C / 1°C
Increasingly cloudy & windy

Sunday
7°C / -2°C
Clearing & windy

Today will see cloud moving in through the morning as a weak disturbance moves into western Manitoba. While this system will bring 2–4cm of snow west of the Red River Valley, here in Winnipeg we’ll see just a slight chance of a light flurry or two. Further west in the Red River Valley – near Portage la Prairie S/SE down towards Morden & Winkler – will likely see a bit of light snow today, but no significant accumulations from it. Winds will be around 20km/h or so out of the south and Winnipeg will see a high temperature near –1°C. Skies will clear this evening as temperatures head to a low near –7°C.

Saturday will be a warm but windy day as a warm front moves into the Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb to an above-normal[1] 7°C under increasingly cloudy skies. Winds will pick up fairly early in the day and strengthen out of the south to 40–50km/h.

Saturday Night
1°C
Rain overnight

A low pressure system will track through Manitoba on Saturday night. The biggest impact from this storm will be felt in Central and Northern Manitoba where up to 10cm of snow may fall. Further south, we’ll see an area of rain move across the region beginning early Saturday evening and tapering off sometime mid-overnight.

Generally speaking, somewhere between 2–5mm of rain is likely to fall. Winds will taper off in the evening as the Red River Valley moves into the trough of this system, and then pick up again out of the northwest once the low passes. The wind will likely strengthen to around 40km/h by Sunday morning.

GDPS 12hr. QPF valid 12Z Sunday March 29, 2015
12hr. accumulated precipitation amounts forecasted by the GDPS for Saturday night.

Sunday will see clearing skies and a high once again near 7°C. Winds will remain strong out of the northwest at 40–50km/h into the early afternoon before tapering off.

Long Range

The long-range forecast looks quite nice through the first half of next week. Both Monday & Tuesday look to bring fairly sunny skies and highs somewhere in the 5–10°C range. Things take a bit of a turn mid-week when a low pressure system is forecast to move across the Prairies and potentially bring another snow event to the Red River Valley.


  1. Normal daytime highs for this time of year in Winnipeg are near +3°C.  ↩
IR Satellite Image of Late-March Storm over the Southern Prairies

Winter Storm Slams Manitoba

A potent spring storm is moving into Manitoba today and will likely exit the region known as one of the strongest of the Winter 2014/15 season. This storm has already brought drizzle, rain and freezing rain to southwestern Manitoba & the Red River Valley and will end up delivering the whole wintery mix by the time all is said and done. Environment Canada has issued a swath of heavy snowfall warnings and special weather statements across Manitoba in advance of this system.

Tuesday Night

Tuesday Night
-1°C
Rain changing to snow

Rain will redevelop this evening and persist through much of the overnight period until a cold front pushes through the Red River Valley and switches the precipitation over to snow. Many areas in the Red River Valley will see around 5-10mm of rain. Alongside the switchover to snow, strong northwesterly winds to 40-50km/h with gusts as high as 70km/h will begin to move into the Red River Valley. The combination of falling snow and strong winds, coupled with the temperature dropping below zero overnight after a day of melting, drizzle & rain will likely produce very poor driving conditions with slippery roads & poor visibilities in blowing snow by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

Wednesday
⇒ -2°C / -11°C
Snow ending in the afternoon; windy

Snow will continue through Wednesday morning before beginning to taper off through the afternoon with a further 5-10cm possible for the City of Winnipeg and the Red River Valley. As mentioned before, the snow will be accompanied by strong northwesterly winds to 40-50km/h which will produce a fair amount of blowing snow as well. Temperatures will drop just barely to -2 or -3°C through the day. Given the relatively mild temperatures, it’s quite likely that as soon as the snow begins to taper off, the blowing snow will too; falling snow will be needed to produce it and it’s unlikely we’ll see much ground-based blowing snow after the fact. Winds will begin to taper off late in the afternoon or in the early evening as the storm moves off into Ontario. Left behind the storm will be partly cloudy skies as temperatures drop to around -11°C.


Storm Update

As expected, many regions across Manitoba saw a significant dump of snow overnight and into this morning. Snowfall totals to 10:30AM CDT across Manitoba are:

Location Snowfall Amount
Winnipeg 5cm
Portage la Prairie 5-10cm
Brandon 6cm
Steinbach 5cm
Dauphin 15-25cm
Rossburn 20cm
McCreary 18cm
Neepawa 15cm
Fisher Branch 15cm
Roblin 14cm
Elkhorn 10cm
Argyle 10cm
Swan River 8cm
Miami 6cm
Morris 2cm

In addition to the heavy snow, many areas through the Red River Valley saw several hours of rain last night. Here in Winnipeg, around 8mm fell overnight, and preliminary reports indicate that similar amounts were seen through much of the Red River Valley. In addition to the snow and rain, very strong winds to 50-60km/h moved into Red River Valley this morning producing blowing snow and helping make sure roads are slick.

The winter weather has wreaked havoc on area infrastructure with numerous accidents on highways as well as complications to power infrastructure with numerous pole fires & power line damage events reported. Many motor-vehicle collisions were reported on Manitoba Highways, with several resulting in sections of Highways 1 and 75 being closed. Two of the more significant ones, pictured above, involved a jackknifed semi-truck collision near Elie and a school bus rollover near Ste. Agathe on Highway 75.

Conditions have begun to improve in the Red River Valley; winds remain strong however with the snow finally moving off into Ontario, much of the blowing snow has stopped. Road conditions will continue to be poor through the remainder of the day, so if you are driving, especially on area highways, be sure to give yourself extra time and be cautious.


Thursday

Thursday
-6°C / -11°C
Partly cloudy

Thursday will be a mainly sunny day – perhaps just a few lingering clouds – with a cool high of just -6°C. Winds will be light, so with the increasingly strong March sun it may not actually feel all that bad outside. Even with the sub-zero temperatures, expect plenty of melting to happen. We head into Thursday night with clear skies and cool off to around -10 or -11°C again overnight, although that could be a couple degrees warmer depending on when cloud cover arrives from…

Friday

Friday
-3°C / -8°C
Mainly cloudy with a chance of light snow

Friday will bring mainly cloudy skies as clouds push in either early Friday morning or late overnight on Thursday thanks to a system rippling through Southern Manitoba from the northwest. It will most likely produce a band of snow through portions of the Parkland, Southwest and into the Western Red River Valley. Under this band, accumulations of 1-2cm look possible at this time. There’s a little uncertainty as to the exact track, given that it’s 3.5 days out at this point, so it may end up a little further west or east. With the current “most likely” track, Winnipeg sees a fairly decent chance at some flurries but little in the way of accumulations. Temperatures will climb to around -3°C with fairly light winds. Friday night looks pleasant with light winds again and a low near -8°C.

Long Range

It’s looking as if another storm is possible on Saturday night as a shortwave tracks across Manitoba.

GDPS 24hr. QPF Forecast valid 12Z Sunday March 29, 2015
The GDPS is forecasting a fair amount of precipitation associated with a significant storm moving through Manitoba this weekend.

Fortunately, it seems like it will be bringing enough warm air with it that precipitation would fall as rain. Either way, though, it looks like we’ll see plenty of cloud and wind this weekend. After a long spell of little in the way of weather, it looks like a typical, more active springtime pattern is setting up!

Say it Ain’t Snow

Snow will make a late-season appearance this week, an unwelcome surprise in what has generally been a very pleasant March.

Significant snowfall will be possible by the middle of this week as a low pressure system moves into the region
Significant snowfall will be possible by the middle of this week as a low pressure system moves into the region

Monday

Monday
3°C / 0°C
Flurries ending

Today will see some light snow tapering off in the morning as a system from overnight exits the region. Thankfully, temperatures will rise above zero by this afternoon, which should melt most of the snow that fell last night and this morning. Once the snow ends skies are expected to remain mainly cloudy and but winds will remain light.

Tuesday

Tuesday
6°C / 1°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of showers

Tuesday looks to be warmest day this week as we sit in the warm sector of the winter storm that will bring us snow on Wednesday. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper single digits, which should help to eliminate any of Monday’s snow that was yet to melt. There may be a few stray showers throughout the day, but otherwise no significant precipitation is expected. The main event will arrive overnight…

Wednesday

Wednesday
2°C / -12°C
Snow

The much-discussed winter storm will arrive on Wednesday. It will not be a particularly powerful storm by any measure, but that won’t stop it from producing significant snowfall in some areas. Currently, it appears that Winnipeg and the Red River Valley is in line for 5-10 cm from this system. Areas further west, particularly in higher elevations and upslope terrain, could see closer to 30 cm. However, it is still too early to place a large amount of confidence in these predictions. As we get closer to Wednesday, more accurate snowfall forecasts will become available.

Long Range

Following the departure of Wednesday’s storm we’ll see temperatures drop back down to below seasonal values to end the week. Models suggest that we’ll continue to be caught between a trough to the east and a ridge to the west, meaning we’ll see frequent oscillations between slightly above and slightly below normal conditions. Until this pattern shifts our weather will continue to be a bit of a roller-coaster.

Cold Snap for the Weekend

Friday afternoon 850mb temperature forecast (RDPS)
Cooler weather is on the way for the weekend as a significant pool of Arctic air grazes Southern Manitoba.

Much cooler temperatures are on the way for the weekend – especially overnight lows – as a push of Arctic air slumps southwards behind the cold front that passed through Southern Manitoba last night. The result will be below normal daytime highs and some exceptionally cold nights for mid-March.

Friday
-2°C / -19°C
Mostly cloudy; slight chance of morning flurries

Saturday
-5°C / -12°C
Partly cloudy

Sunday
-2°C / -10°C
Increasing cloud

Today will be a mostly cloudy day with some sunny breaks this afternoon, however the main weather for the day will be the brisk northerly winds to 30–40km/h that pick up through the day. These winds will be ushering in significantly cooler air for this evening. Fortunately, temperatures will be able to recover a little bit today before the colder air pushes in with high temperatures reaching a slightly below-normal[1] –2°C. Unfortunately, the cold air slams into the Red River Valley tonight. Temperatures will drop to around –19°C overnight.

Saturday and Sunday look fairly quiet weather-wise. After a very cold start to the morning, temperatures on Saturday should climb to around –5°C under partly cloudy skies. This high will be around 6°C below normal. Temperatures will dip just below –10°C on Saturday night and then climb back up to –2°C or so on Sunday afternoon. Sunday looks to start fairly sunny but see increasing cloudiness through the day as a disturbance slips across southwestern Manitoba.

Seasonal Weather Returns Next Week

Seasonal highs anywhere from 0 to +4°C will return for the start of next week. Conditions look fairly dry, however early indications point to a system moving through Southern Manitoba mid-week that could bring some rain (or less likely, snow) to the area.


  1. Normal daytime highs for this time of year are around +1°C.  ↩